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Predicting interest rates accurately in the long run is impossible, you have no basis for these statements.
by zeroonetwothree 3y ago
Predicting interest rates accurately in the long run is impossible, you have no basis for these statements.
- wing-_-nuts 3y agoAs someone who's studied economics, predicting interest rates in the long run is fairly straight forward. It's the short term movements that are impossible. I base my statements on historical fed moves in a similar environment, but I'm not paul volcker
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- hotpotamus 3y agoI've also studied finance and economics, like in university and everything, though not to any great extent. I came away from the experience thinking that it might have a bit more predictive power than reading chicken entrails. What long term predictions from the past accurately tell you today's rates? That is do you have any back testing?
- reaperman 3y agoLong term (>9 months), yes. Medium term (3-6 months) predictions of medium precision is entirely reasonable given the size of the economy (like steering/stopping a container ship) as long as your cite your assumption that no black swan event will occur.
- throw0101c 3y ago> Predicting interest rates accurately in the long run is impossible, you have no basis for these statements. Define "long run". Because over a few centuries the trend has been down: * https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-cen... * https://www.visualcapitalist.com/700-year-decline-of-interest-rates/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/700-year-decline-of-interes...
- coding123 3y agoThis is one of the strangest replies I've seen in a while.