13 ms·
Hollywood Studios’ WGA Strike Plan: Let Writers Go Broke, “Lose Apartments”
- kelseyfrog 3y agoIs there an assumption that strikes don't also hurt workers? I'm trying to figure out the angle here.
- failuser 3y agoThe angle is estimation of the resolve and prospects of the strike. Does WGA have a strike fund? There is also a big difference between a factory that can’t be stopped for months and Hollywood that can operate without scripts until the box office will indicate that you actually need writers like last time. The studio plan might be to bust the WGA entirely.
- HillRat 3y agoThe question is whether the prospect of a WGA deal (and, admittedly, having to go back to the table with SAG-AFTRA and IATSE) is so unpalatable to the studios that they're willing to take the hit of a significant gap in theater releases and a year of lost TV production, or if this is a last-ditch effort to scare the Guild into taking a deal as bad as the one the DGA bought into. This is also aimed at the actors, since their strike kicks off at midnight tonight if no deal's reached, and that'll bring everything to a halt -- not just in Hollywood, but abroad, too. (Also, it can't be lost on actors or below-the-line talent that AI is probably a greater threat to their jobs than to writers: I'm skeptical that LLMs are going to replace screenwriters in any serious way, but a whole lot of AI technologies are just on the cusp of being able to hollow out everyone from the cinematographer on down.) I think the insistence that AMPTP is totally unified on forcing the writers into homelessness is a bit villainously overblown; sure, streaming-only companies like Netflix can weather this by just picking up more global content and unscripted work, but keeping the strike going through Q4 is going to expose some real strategic fissures between streamers, networks, and studios that cash hoarding alone isn't going to paper over, especially since the studios' bets on blockbusters and in-house streaming aren't paying off. If AMPTP is really serious about this, the studio chiefs could end up taking down their own companies by exposing them to potentially multiple quarters without significant new content availability. With IATSE negotiations coming up in 2024, it seems unlikely to me that the studios are willing to lose the rest of this year and then go right back into a strike situation.
- babypuncher 3y agoMy understanding is that it's companies like Netflix that are hardlining on the strike while Disney and other traditional studios have been more interested in negotiating. Probably because, like you mentioned, Netflix can more easily lean on foreign content. I think Netflix is being particularly shitty here because they negotiated unique terms with the unions 10 years ago under the guise of being a new business model. They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys.
- aleph_minus_one 3y ago> They aren't "new" anymore, they are an established player, they should have to play by the same rules as the big boys. Well, playing by the same rules as the big boys can also be attained if the big boys join the rules that Netflix negotiated (which are, of course, less favorable for the writers). I do believe that many studio executives will at least attempt to make use of this once-in-a-life opportunity. ;-)
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> that they're willing to take the hit of a significant gap in theater releases and a year of lost TV production Practically every studio was announcing cuts to programming spend in the months preceding the strike. An industry-wide pause means nobody loses market share while delaying expenses.
- doctorpangloss 3y ago> ...AI is probably a greater threat to their jobs than to writers: I'm [making an accurate observation], but [here's some other speculation.] There are no LLMs writing scripts for TV productions today, and yet, WGA writers are out of work. Something political - I mean, something that is totally controlled by humans, and can be turned around with a stroke of a pen, if collectively - has the biggest impact on writers' work. Not technology. In case you're confused where my opinions lie, I do support the writers, because this is what they are actually asking for: > But the fear is that studios will use AI to turn out a crappy first draft, and then turn it over to writers who they hire for a few days or a week to turn it into something good. And they won’t pay them as if it’s an original script. That is the fear. https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-technology-ban-1235610076/ https://variety.com/2023/biz/news/wga-ai-writers-strike-tech... The whole article is about how studios have a tool that could seemingly pass legal muster and abrogate a lot of the economic obligations they have when they start an engagement with a writer. Basically via tricks. It's about politics. Writers want to use AI. They also want to use Google and pirate movies and TV shows and read other people's books and file the serial numbers off of the characters and do all sorts of things that have complex copyright implications. This isn't about luddites or whatever the fuck. What they don't want is for studios to do tricks. They want "we will not use this to do tricks where we pay you to do something that has for the last 20 years meant X and then when it turns out you make us a ton of money, it will actually mean Y." That sounds like a reasonable contract term for me. If you see a trick coming from a mile away; if your opposing party has a trick-manufacturing machine overseen only by octogenarians, and you have collective bargaining power, what else can you do?
- wahnfrieden 3y ago“The endgame is to allow things to drag on until union members start losing their apartments and losing their houses,” a studio executive told Deadline. Acknowledging the cold-as-ice approach, several other sources reiterated the statement. One insider called it “a cruel but necessary evil.”
- aleph_minus_one 3y agoRelevant: Madman theory: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
- gruez 3y agoWhat's the irrational part here? They're rationally betting on the writers caving because they got bills to pay.
- aleph_minus_one 3y agoThe studio executives pretend that they are actually willing to let the respective writers insanely suffer (“The endgame is to allow things to drag on until union members start losing their apartments and losing their houses”). Thus the studio executives pretend to be madmen with an iron will and ire to start a cruel long-lasting vendetta against every screenwriter who joins the strike.
- anonymousab 3y agoI don't see any reason to see it as pretending. Ultimately they want to get rid of as much labor in the production pipeline as possible. They see "replace all of them with AI" as inevitable and utmost required for profit maximization, and therefore, every extra day of a writer being hired for even the smallest compensation is, to them, a great act of charity towards undesired and eventually irrelevant workers. So writers and actors causing an issue in the face of that 'charity' is deserving of the harshest and coldest response possible.
- 3y ago
- costanzaDynasty 3y agoFlush with global money the studios and their mouthpieces hot shotted the industry to take advantage of streaming mania. During covid with even more stupid money flowing in they burned through all the “content” for no reason. When someone like Zaslav ignored the Yentaverse completely and adjusted the streaming approach to another bucket instead of a loss leader, they have positioned their companies for future revenue and success. I was in a union for a long time so it’s not surprising the language or action companies use.
- wincy 3y agoWhat is a Yentaverse? I googled it and nothing comes up.
- costanzaDynasty 3y agoThat's because I made it up. But basically all social media and media that is gossipy as content.
- underlipton 3y agoZaslav is a caustic racist who deep-sixed the COMPLETED 2nd season of my favorite series from last year before it aired (the wonderful, intellectually-serious and emotionally-mature Pantheon). For a tax write-off. He lead what was essentially a cultural purge of nascent and even legacy media that appeals to progressives (many shows are no longer accessible legally through any streaming service). I will never put a dime towards anything he touches again, and I'm not alone. Related reading: https://twitter.com/happyroadkill/status/1654179858090475536 https://twitter.com/happyroadkill/status/1654179858090475536
- azemetre 3y agoYou seem to be confusing CEOs/companies, Pantheon was done by AMC not Warner Bros. Discovery.
- underlipton 3y ago
- gjsman-1000 3y agoIt's cold but... what strike doesn't work this way? This is the definition of a strike - you are holding out until the other party is suffering more losses than they can reasonably sustain compared to the costs of giving in; in order to obtain a favorable deal. On that note... I'm not actually convinced "new content" is all that necessary, even though that is an intuitive assumption on my part.
- readthenotes1 3y agoSince Hollywood peaked in about 1962, and since most people haven't seen much of what before, the execs could just recycle old movies for years
- gjsman-1000 3y agoRight. But take, for example, Warner Bros. Discovery. $40 billion in revenue yearly, $50+ billion in debt needing servicing, annual gross profit $13 billion, Market cap $32 billion. They aren't exactly the world's healthiest company. What's the plan? "World-class" Cost-cutting and price hikes, everywhere. Even if it's multiple 95%-finished movies (Scoob! Holiday Haunt, Batgirl), send them to the shredder for the tax write-off if their success is uncertain. Taking risks or releasing anything that possibly won't be a hit, is not affordable at the moment. What about Disney? Disney+ is losing $4 billion every year, and now has a lawsuit ongoing about whether the projections of profitability were ever reasonable. And it has also become apparent to investors that the content deluge and the expectations it set has caused massive damage to Marvel, as well as Pixar's Box Office profits. Pixar's Elemental, for example, just had the second-worst box office opening after the original Toy Story... except that Toy Story opened with 28 years less inflation, and on a Wednesday. The good news for Disney is that Elemental has had quite a recovery, even if it almost certainly won't break-even. Now you've got this quibble with the Writer's Guild; at the same time that making new content to prop up streaming numbers has never been under more scrutiny, and the pocketbook has not been such a concern in years. You can afford to take a break - heck, you might have even been considering taking a break anyway; and by taking a break you can theoretically win a better deal with the Writers to save even more money in the future.
- 3y ago
- Qwertious 3y agoThis is like asking someone if they're bluffing. "Of course I'm not bluffing", he bluffs. Hollywood execs would claim they'll hold out indefinitely, if they thought anyone would remotely believe their claim.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 3y agoI mean.. not indefinitely, but in a war of attrition, executives are much better positioned to weather the drought than writers. Apart from everything else, there is just so much content out there, re-running old stuff is a valid tactic until other steps are necessary. I absolutely buy willingness to hold out. I have no way of telling the public sentiment on the issue though, which could be a factor.
- kozikow 3y agoPlots of many movies in recent years have been so crap, that honestly chatgpt can do a better job already.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago> in a war of attrition, executives are much better positioned to weather the drought than writers Not necessarily. If the writers had pulled this in 2021, they'd have won. Everyone wanted to buy more content. That not only made the opportunity cost of not producing larger, it introduced the credible threat of writers picking off the studios one by one or even decamping to a new entrant.
- aidenn0 3y agoFor an idea of what things can be like for strikes in the entertainment industry, look at the 1942-1944 musicians' strike[1]. Yes that's a multi-year strike, not a series of strikes. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1942%E2%80%931944_musicians%27_strike https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1942%E2%80%931944_musicians%27...
- sidewndr46 3y agothat was during WWII, which probably represented the greatest reduction in workers and citizens rights the United States ever saw.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 3y agoMaybe they will use ChatGPT or Claude to write the scripts ruing the strike. The context is starting to get long enough to maybe do an actual script. Perhaps as a bonus, we can get an uncensored version of ChatGPT/Claude. I suppose getting the following response too many times will be frustrating: “I am an ethical AI. The actions you are trying to portray of Prince Aemond Targaryen do not meet the standards of ethical, non-harmful conduct. Would you like me to rewrite the script in a more ethical manner, respecting human rights?”
- n8cpdx 3y agoIn previous strikes, writers have taken on other gigs to make ends meet. It is a historically tight labor market. I wonder if studios are worried about that. This whole thing could just make Lyft and DoorDash in LA slightly cheaper rather than seriously hurt (already underpaid, if the guild is to be believed) writers.
- Timon3 3y agoWe should do this with everyone! Just fire everyone every couple of years to keep these services cheap.
- jabroni_salad 3y agoThere are places to write that aren't hollywood, you know? Chances are their BATNA is a bit more developed than "go to doordash".
- crazygringo 3y agoNo there aren't really. Writing for American TV and film is a very unique skill set and virtually everywhere you would work is covered by the union. All productions have been shut down. The same union covers if you're writing in New York or Atlanta. And they're not going to pick up and go to London or Mumbai. The backup plan really is DoorDash, Uber, etc.
- snowwrestler 3y agoIt’s a total mystery whether, or how quickly, customers will cancel streaming services if there’s no new scripted content. It’s possible they won’t for a long time. In that case, studios would keep a steady stream of income despite no new shows. That would greatly reduce the leverage that writers have. That’s the background to these studio comments. Typically there has been a tight connection between new content and steady revenue. Studios needed new movies every month to generate income. Networks needed new episodes every week to keep audience up and advertisers spending. But streaming services auto-charge every month or year unless the consumer makes an effort to stop it. It’s an opt-out revenue model instead of opt-in.
- philwelch 3y agoI’ve already cancelled everything I can. Not because of the strike or anything like that but because streaming is so fragmented that it’s not cost effective anymore. I might want to watch something but it’s only available on the 1/2 of streaming services I don’t have at the moment. Meanwhile the revenue from streaming probably isn’t enough to produce quality content; all the cool prestige series on streaming are backed by speculative investment money from the low interest rate era. Netflix, which probably has the best analytics and the least commitment to legacy Hollywood, has already pivoted to cheap “reality TV” content over their earlier prestige offerings.
- nemothekid 3y agoThe studios have always had the leverage you are talking about - Barbie releases this July, but was written in 2021. The problem for studios is every minute of the strike represents lost revenue 1-2 years from now. >Typically there has been a tight connection between new content and steady revenue. This isn't really true either, as content is hit based business not too dissimilar from venture capital. Sure you can always play it safe by milking an established brand but you always need to be running experiments.
- snowwrestler 3y agoStreaming services don’t need new hits to drive revenue, they only need subscribers. Normally you’d say that a streaming service that is not producing scripted hits would lose subscribers to one that is. But if none of them are producing new scripted hits? The old hits might hold onto folks for a while. Call it the “gotta watch something” theory.
- nharada 3y agoNot directly about the WGA strike, but it's interesting seeing the reactions here vs if this had been said by say, a tech exec about software engineers.
- ttymck 3y agoWhat would the reactions have been in that case?
- colechristensen 3y agoIt's quite a bit different because tech people can go somewhere else. There won't ever be anything like an industry-wide union. I also have a hard time imagining what kind of tech company could survive a months long shutdown.
- aidenn0 3y agoCouldn't many non-startups survive a months-long shutdown, especially if their competitors are also shutdown? For B2B, revenue is often booked quarters in advance, and salaries tend to be the largest cost-center.
- junaru 3y agoThe studios will bleed money from yearly superhero movie sales and WGA will starve because they long forgot how to write anything unique. Meanwhile talk show hosts will blabber and laugh at their own jokes to fill in the time just like they did during the 2008 strike. General public once again will realize just how unimaginative and unfunny political commentators actually are without scripts and how much of the insight is actually meticulously crafted. Its 2008 all over again, and its a good thing.
- AlbertCory 3y agoOh, no. Those late night comedians might actually have to think up their clever monologs! Like they did when they were struggling stand-up comedians. They might have to interview their guests as if they actually knew anything about them. Bad idea. Just shut down. https://decider.com/2023/05/02/late-night-television-shut-down-wga-strike-tonight-show-jimmy-kimmel-live-the-late-show/ https://decider.com/2023/05/02/late-night-television-shut-do...
- Eumenes 3y agoThe current lineup of late night "comedians" is just horrible ... I miss john stewart - did he write his own stuff?
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- luma 3y agoAbsolutely not and he stands in solidarity with his writers as he is also a WGA member: https://deadline.com/2023/05/writers-strike-jon-stewart-cancels-the-problem-with-apple-event-1235354633/ https://deadline.com/2023/05/writers-strike-jon-stewart-canc...
- crazygringo 3y agoStruggling stand-up comedians come up with 10 min of good new material every few months. Not every night. There isn't a person on earth who can write an entire good late night monologue by themselves, consistently, every single night.
- AlbertCory 3y agoMaybe they could skip the monologue then? Just a thought.
- crazygringo 3y agoWhy? Is there some kind of objection to having a team of comedy writers? When we watch TV shows those are almost always written by a team of writers as well. Writing and performing are different skills. Actors don't write their lines either.
- no_wizard 3y agoAt this point, I would not be shocked if Hollywood studios try to hire writers in Canada and other english speaking countries that are clearly not going to be participating in these strikes, to get some new content moving. Given time horizons, seems like one of the inevitable long term options for them, is diversify writer rooms across countries with similar cultures to intended audiences
- whimsicalism 3y agoWriters who have no aspiration of writing in America? WGA blacklists you if you scab
- gjsman-1000 3y ago... but imagine that Disney, Warner Bros, literally ever major studio did that all at once. The WGA would have to blacklist them all - which would almost be certain implosion.
- whimsicalism 3y agoThey don't blacklist the studios, they blacklist the writers.
- gjsman-1000 3y agoIn that case, though it would be very extreme, the studios could theoretically announce that there are enough writers in the world that the WGA is no longer necessary - they'll just hire writers from Britain, France, Germany, wherever. They could also spin it as a good thing - greater diversity in film! And they can hire some cheap American non-WGA writers to Americanize the humor or references wherever needed. That would, of course, break the WGA. The WGA's existence depends on major movie studios needing them. If the movie studios decide to adapt in a way that the WGA is unnecessary... they're dead, and no writer will stick with them, everyone will scab. The WGA would have to beg SAG-AFTRA and the DGA to strike on their behalf, but that would cause... lawsuits; lots of lawsuits; because is it legal for one union to strike to save another union?
- Sparkyte 3y agoChatGPT: "I'm your writer now."
- zeroCalories 3y agoThis is pure speculation, but I imagine there are plenty of people that could write a passable show, and would even do it for free if given the opportunity. Same with other art. What leverage do these writers actually have?
- notaustinpowers 3y agoLook at the previous writers strike and what happened to shows like Heroes. Except now it's even worse now that we're in the streaming age. Netflix and other streaming platforms want a half or full season written before the greenlight a project, rather than just a pilot episode. The quality will dive just like in did last time, and people will unsubscribe or just stop watching Netflix which is the last thing they're going to want.
- jjulius 3y agoA passion for the work and a desire to work in the industry. And I'll go a step further and seize on the word "passable". Would you rather watch a show that's simply good enough to "pass" as a show, or something of higher quality? Plenty of people can write something that you could pass off as a show, but I'd imagine that that number drops as you reach for something of a higher caliber.
- zeroCalories 3y agoThere are plenty of people with passion. That's not significant leverage. As for quality, it's not clear to me that current shows/movies are even that good in terms of writing. If you are a truly talented writer that can make/break a work you should have similar leverage to a director or lead actor, but studios don't think you are and that's why you're in a union. Maybe if your buddies that are actually talented gave a creditable threat of committing career suicide that would be good leverage, but it doesn't seem like a real threat when top talent will always be paid well.
- jjulius 3y ago>There are plenty of people with passion. That's not significant leverage. Passion "for the work", not necessarily simply writing a show itself. I'm talking about being in a writer's room with others for eight-plus hours a day, dealing with the opinions of others, being OK with having your ideas axed because some producer didn't like it for whatever reason, the process of pitching ideas, and everything else the job entails.
- aidenn0 3y agoThe Realpolitik of strikes is "which side needs the other more." In particular in the US, the post-war labor regulations make it harder than in some other countries for the unions.
- anigbrowl 3y agoI predict writers are going to lose. The last strike gave a big boost to realty TV and other craptacular media; a lot of consumers do not care about art or creativity and will cheerfully watch entertaining drivel. And the bar is already low; much of American media is incredibly boring, though honorable exceptions exist.