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CPI for all items rises 0.2% in June; shelter up
- 111111IIIIIII 3y agoWhat does this mean?
- hartator 3y agoInflation was expected to go down not up.
- yellowstuff 3y agoNo, the consensus estimate was a .3% rise, so a .2% rise is lower than expected by Wall Street analysts. You may be confusing rate vs level.
- esc861 3y agoThis report is actually better than expected: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2percent-in-june-less-than-expected-as-consumers-get-a-break-from-price-increases.html https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/12/inflation-rose-just-0point2p...
- tekla 3y agoIt did go down.
- jussij 3y agoThis column found on that page indicates inflation has gone down: Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Jun. 2023 3.0% I'm pretty sure the last reported USA annual inflation figure was 4%.
- ilikehurdles 3y agoIt did go down. You’re confusing disinflation with deflation.
- lvh 3y agoIf you are referring to "shelter up": "shelter" is one of the elements of the index. It refers mostly to the cost of housing. So, rent's up.
- bongobingo1 3y agoI don't think rent has gone down in my 35 years of breathing...
- capableweb 3y agoRight after lockdown COVID restrictions got slightly lifted from the full-scale lockdown in a European country, the prices slightly dropped for some months, only to start raising again (and this month is all-time record for raises).
- quickthrower2 3y agoIt did temporarily in Sydney in 2020/2021, but back to normal now
- tekla 3y agoI seem to recall an event in 2020 where rent in NYC of all places drastically dropped.
- 111111IIIIIII 3y agoBingo! Let's just do that again...
- rescripting 3y agoHere is what I don't understand. Interest rates keep going up so mortgages keep going up so rents keep going up (this is more pronounced in places that have shorter mortgage terms like Canada). Then we bemoan inflation in housing?
- ilikehurdles 3y ago
- mandelbrotwurst 3y agoI would suggest reading the summary of the news release and checking back in after that with any remaining, more specific questions.
- AndrewKemendo 3y agoThe Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in May. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment
- giantg2 3y agoHopefully the 12 month is will stay below 4% so I won't get as big of a paycut this year.
- jussij 3y agoThe page says the monthly USA CPI came in at 0.2% which is quite low as if that trend continues, it will equate to a 2.4% annual inflation number. The 'Shelter up' in the comment refers to this statement found in the report: The index for shelter was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over 70 percent of the increase That means rents are still going up and they also account for the largest rise in monthly inflation.
- boringuser2 3y agoI have been holding that housing will never decrease in price since the big COVID spike, and it seems to be playing out.
- RamblingCTO 3y agoI wanted to compare to Germany, as life feels very expensive. Seems it got better: - food: -0.1% - clothing: -1.2% - energy: 0 - aclohol: +0.6% https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Price-Index/Tables/Consumer-prices-12-divisions.html#242092 https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/Prices/Consumer-Pr...
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- iSnow 3y agoWhat matters mostly are the YoY changes, and they are still pretty bad.
- laidoffamazon 3y ago3% YoY vs 4% last month and 9% last year are excellent, not pretty bad. For comparison yoy inflation in 1983/1984 (massive win for the incumbent president) was >3% and >4% respectively with a significantly higher unemployment rate
- iSnow 3y agoWe were talking about German numbers in this branch.
- drewg123 3y agoCan you explain why YoY matters most? It has always seemed like a very laggy indicator to me. Eg, if inflation is brought under control, the YoY numbers will make it look like there is still inflation on-going for the next 12 months. To me, that seems almost dangerous, as it will provoke inflation countermeasures from the government, and inflation reactions from business & labor (price/wage increases) that will in turn lead to even more inflation..
- MR4D 3y agoMoM numbers can be bumpy and bounce around a bit every month regardless. YoY numbers smooth out that bumpiness. It's very possible that next month we see numbers go up, which would make this report an outlier, and the YoY numbers more accurate. If you look at the Energy row, you can see this month over month variation is quite high.
- tekla 3y agoSo are we in a recession yet? I was told we were in a recession 6 months ago.
- lvspiff 3y agoTo quote the great Fed Chairman "Its transitory"
- 1-6 3y agoWe've been gaslighted.
- scrlk 3y agoDepends where you are. Eurozone entered a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of declining GDP) in Q1 this year.
- laidoffamazon 3y agoBLS.gov is, of course, an American bureau
- SantalBlush 3y agoThat is not a technical recession. The Eurozone uses a definition quite similar to the US definition [0]. It's like people commenting on the internet get all of their information from other internet comments, and refuse to read actual sources. This is not ambiguous, the current definition of recession has been established for decades. >Why doesn’t the Committee accept the two-quarter definition? >The Committee’s procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in several ways. First, we do not identify economic activity solely with real GDP, but use a range of indicators, notably employment. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, “a significant decline in activity.” [0] https://eabcn.org/dc/faq https://eabcn.org/dc/faq
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- hospitalJail 3y agoIf you talk to a random person, they will say inflation since 2020 has been ~30%. If you ask the government, its 15%. The only way I can rationalize this is that CPI is a lagging number. But deep down, I know its a gamed number.
- NotYourLawyer 3y agoOf course it’s gamed. The government has motive, means, and opportunity. It would be shocking if it weren’t gamed.
- laidoffamazon 3y agoPrepare to be shocked, I guess
- adamhp 3y agoThe CPI isn't a made up number. It's an average of prices of goods. The government doesn't manipulate prices of goods, at least not directly. Sure, the economy might be gamed by the government and large corporations in general, but the Consumer Price Index isn't (and can't really be) directly manipulated, without changing its definition (what is included in the index).
- SantalBlush 3y agoMost of government is comprised of bureaucrats who do their jobs through many administrations. This take shows a complete misunderstanding of government work.
- NotYourLawyer 3y agoNow who’s being naive…
- SantalBlush 3y agoI worked for the government, so I can confidently say that you are.
- gpapilion 3y agoThe original title here is misleading the report shows a slow down in the inflation rate when looking at the 12 month index. This indicates a 4.8% rate (minus food and energy) compared to something like 5.2% in May. Basically inflation is returning declining.
- huitzitziltzin 3y agoInflation is down, the labor market is robust and we are not in a recession so you can expect that the Federal Reserve will quite likely raise interest rates a quarter point at their next meeting. The decrease in inflation is good news for consumers and for policymakers. We still have a bit to go to get to a level of inflation the Fed is comfortable with. Barring a dramatic change in the labor market or the level of overall economic activity, expect further interest rate increases. This is my interpretation as an economist not at the fed or in another government agency and with access only to the same public information you have, but with a bit more background in macro. As always, I may be wrong!
- FollowingTheDao 3y agoOf course the Fed is going to raise rates. We’re still near 5% minus food and energy. It’s been going sideways for the last four months and note that this is not the seasonal rate and that in the winter when the energy prices rise, if food and energy stay at 4.8% then the rate of inflation will start to click up again.
- nathanaldensr 3y ago"Inflation is down" is ridiculous spin. No, the rate of increase of inflation is down. Oh, and the last several years of insane inflation still happened. Nothing has changed or improved. Recently, I paid almost seven dollars for a single box of Raisin Bran from a large grocer.
- SantalBlush 3y ago>"Inflation is down" is ridiculous spin. No, the rate of increase of inflation is down. These mean the same thing; they're both referring to the second derivative of prices w.r.t. time. There is nothing wrong with GP's phrasing.
- adfgadfhion 3y ago>"Inflation is down" is ridiculous spin. No, the rate of increase of inflation is down. I don't believe for a second you're actually confused. You know very well that "inflation is down" means the inflation rate is down. If inflation were actually down that would be called "deflation" and no one would be celebrating (except the goldbugs). What news we have is objectively both a change and an improvement. Pretending otherwise is ridiculous. The inflation rate is way down by all metrics. And it was never all that bad to start with. It never even hit 10%. Inflation was a problem but one modern governments run by adults are demonstrably capable of dealing with. The response didn't even cause a recession!
- FollowingTheDao 3y agoKeep in mind that this minor slowdown of inflation is only because of a drastic reduction of energy prices. If the Fed doesn’t raise rates then will be back at higher inflation, as winter approaches again.
- bannedbybros 3y ago[dead]
- chaostheory 3y agoShelter costs will likely drop more during the next two rate hikes Home costs and rentals are already dropping in the pandemic boom areas.
- AndrewKemendo 3y agoWho cares if the economy is growing if the only people benefitting from it are the ones most insulated from economic shocks? None of these measures are relevant to 99% of people because labor share of productivity continues decreasing Until labor share of growth is rebalanced [1] nothing will change for most people and the vast majority will continue to have no power to escape this feast-famine cycle. [1] https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/ https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/
- lend000 3y agoFor everyone who thinks CPI is an accurate measure of inflation, consider this chart: [0] It shows real wages mostly flat or increasing since the 1980's. I've noticed that the same people claiming CPI is accurate also tend to complain about decreasing cost-adjusted standards of living for the median worker. Those opinions can't both be correct (hint: the second one is correct). [0] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q