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Sound of Freedom is being a profitable success (46M gross so far, 15M budget) and a trend to follow for religion-influenced movies bringing large audiences. It'

Sound of Freedom is being a profitable success (46M gross so far, 15M budget) and a trend to follow for religion-influenced movies bringing large audiences. It's not a one-off, we saw that with Jesus Revolution too (53M gross, 15M budget). When you are smart about the audience and costs, you can make a ton of money in the business still. I have a theory that the low interest rates in the past several years created massive distortions in the movie business. Firstly, incredibly expensive movies that, while entertaining (like the last Indiana Jones), have very little hopes of turning a profit. Secondly, streaming services having mountains of money and making things that are, well, too good and unprofitable long term. For instance, according to some unofficial numbers, you can make four Sound of Freedoms with the budget of a single Amazon Lord of the Rings episode!

bsder 3y ago
However, this presupposes you can pick the guy who wrote the "Sound of Freedom" out from the rest of the dreck a priori. Nobody can do that. Go down the list of films in 2023 on IMDB. How many of those didn't make back their money domestically? A LOT. The profit from even one of your movies barely pays for a single other flop. Matt Damon commented in an interview that the problem was the collapse of DVD sales. With DVD sales, you could occasionally get a long slow burn after the movie was done (see: John Wick). Without DVD sales, it's either get it at the box office or you're done.
- glimshe 3y ago
  Maybe you can't pick that these movies easily a priori, but this one in particular came from a pretty strong crowdfunding campaign. So that's potentially a bankable early signal. My claim is that there is an underserved market and companies are starting to invest in it and create movies that aren't ultra low budget. More movies to come, and like any market with limited competition, an opportunity to watch for. About DVD/Blueray sales, a separate and interesting discussion. Digital purchases were supposed to replace those, but with non-portable DRM and cumbersome UIs with subscription services, this isn't happening yet. I wonder if anyone will "solve" the problem of buying a movie in the 21st century, or maybe buying movies is dead for good?

bsder 3y ago

However, this presupposes you can pick the guy who wrote the "Sound of Freedom" out from the rest of the dreck a priori. Nobody can do that. Go down the list of films in 2023 on IMDB. How many of those didn't make back their money domestically? A LOT. The profit from even one of your movies barely pays for a single other flop. Matt Damon commented in an interview that the problem was the collapse of DVD sales. With DVD sales, you could occasionally get a long slow burn after the movie was done (see: John Wick). Without DVD sales, it's either get it at the box office or you're done.

glimshe 3y ago
Maybe you can't pick that these movies easily a priori, but this one in particular came from a pretty strong crowdfunding campaign. So that's potentially a bankable early signal. My claim is that there is an underserved market and companies are starting to invest in it and create movies that aren't ultra low budget. More movies to come, and like any market with limited competition, an opportunity to watch for. About DVD/Blueray sales, a separate and interesting discussion. Digital purchases were supposed to replace those, but with non-portable DRM and cumbersome UIs with subscription services, this isn't happening yet. I wonder if anyone will "solve" the problem of buying a movie in the 21st century, or maybe buying movies is dead for good?