A lot of the predictions here didn’t age well and it’s generally for the same reason: the author is overconfident of their position and their predictions tend t

A lot of the predictions here didn’t age well and it’s generally for the same reason: the author is overconfident of their position and their predictions tend to be worst case catastrophising which undermines their whole point. Take predictions of Australia: that the wheat export trade has permanently ‘stopped’ and that the drought in 2010 was actually ‘climate change’ which would not reverse. We actually have been producing record crops and rainfall has been massive (so massive that it damaged some of the crops) [0] The fundamental question is ‘how is climate change going to affect geopolitics,’ which requires a good model for the climate and local weather effects and a good model for how changes affect people. I’m not convinced we have either yet, just some coarse climate models and a lot of conjecture on what these models portend. [0] www.world-grain.com/articles/18040-australia-grain-harvest-running-to-record