The academic Phillip Tetlock systematically went through and checked on forecasts from a range of people and found people who performed better. His work is very

The academic Phillip Tetlock systematically went through and checked on forecasts from a range of people and found people who performed better. His work is very much worth reading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster