Capabilities of the open-source models are only increasing over time by objective measurement. Yes, every one of them is demonstrably inferior to GPT-4, but we

Capabilities of the open-source models are only increasing over time by objective measurement. Yes, every one of them is demonstrably inferior to GPT-4, but we have historical precedent that the cost of compute only ever goes down. Additionally, assuming the leaked details given here are accurate, there might not be a GPT-6. This entire approach of AI via language models very well could be approaching a local maximum and/or have already reached the point of diminishing returns. If that is the case, OpenAI's moat is guaranteed to run dry. It should be telling that very few of the improvements over the past few months involve the base model, rather they are value-adds like plug-ins and hooking it up to a VM, things that are not protected by training difficulty.