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Little strategic value? The largest country in Europe (besides Russia) that stopped supposedly the second best army in the world? Russia taking over Ukraine wil

Little strategic value? The largest country in Europe (besides Russia) that stopped supposedly the second best army in the world? Russia taking over Ukraine will have pretty grim strategic implication for the US. Russia had come back from worse? If you want Germany under Russian control in 30 years stopping giving Ukraine better weapons is the way to go.

remarkEon 3y ago
Can you actually articulate anything beyond vaguely waiving at the size of the Ukrainian land mass? Is there some hyper critical mineral they have that no one else has? >If you want Germany under Russian control in 30 years stopping giving Ukraine better weapons is the way to go. I'm struggling to understand how this would happen, given Russia is at the point where they're pulling out mothballed T-34s for this and Germany has its own defense industry with modern weapons systems across all levels of war. "If we don't start WWIII over the Donbass, it's on to Berlin for the Russians!" isn't a statement grounded in any evidence or reality.
- lisasays 3y ago
  Is there some hyper critical mineral they have that no one else has? Actually the main concern in Ukraine is stopping the mass murder, rape and torture of civilians. Bet you didn't think of that.
  - failuser 3y ago
    Unfortunately, stopping mass murder, rape and torture is not a very compelling argument for pragmatists. As it was with WWI and WWII. Fortunately, there is a very good pragmatic argument for helping Ukraine win.
    - lisasays 3y ago
      Indeed - there are plenty of obvious pragmatic reasons for Europe's not wanting to have to put up with a recidivist bully on its doorstep, long-term. On top of the stench of all the bodies in Bucha, Mariupol, etc. It's not like it's a big head-scratcher.
- failuser 3y ago
  In 2008 the world did nothing to stop Russia from invading Georgia. In 2014 the world did next to nothing to stop Russia’s expansion into Ukraine. Even in 2022 the West waited for a while before supplying Ukraine with heavy equipment. Russia is not pulling mothballed T-34s, they don’t have them aside from museum exhibits. Given enough time they can fix their command and manufacturing problems. Contrary to the popular belief Russia learns and is getting better at war as we speak. In 2022 the whole front collapsed, now they can keep holding against Ukrainians armed with western tanks and cruise missiles. Russia will have a generation raised during this war and war propaganda. Right now Russians sabotage the war by inaction and evasion because not that many people actually want to actively participate. That will change over time if the new generation is indoctrinated. This can’t be allowed to happen. If it was Germany on Russian border and without NATO article 5 instead of Ukraine, Berlin would have been taken in 3 days, no amount of modern manufacturing will save you from not having a standing army with proper equipment.
  - remarkEon 3y ago
    No one can seem to keep their story straight in this thread. Russia is at the same time a weakend-to-the-point-of-collapse war economy, but also able to conjure up new manufacturing infrastructure from nowhere that would make them able to blitzkrieg their way to Berlin in 3 days. If the US can't replenish their 155mm stockpiles until ~2025, I would love to know what the Russians have figured out about weapons manufacturing that we ostensibly can't. I'm still not seeing why this particular conflict is so critical to the US strategic position that we'd walk ourselves up to direct NATO involvement and WWIII. I suppose if we sleepwalk into WWIII the 155mm problem will solve itself. >If it was Germany on Russian border and without NATO article 5 instead of Ukraine, Berlin would have been taken in 3 days, no amount of modern manufacturing will save you from not having a standing army with proper equipment. Sure, if you posit a bunch of things as true that are not true, you can make any analogy you want.
    - failuser 3y ago
      Russia has encountered significant problems especially compared to the expectations of the US analysts that said it will take over Kyiv in 3 days. But I’m still sure they would have no trouble with taking over modern demilitarized Germany if not for NATO. But it’s far from being defeated. It’s not on the brink. It did not even mobilize the economy. The average guy in Moscow lived as well as before the war or better. About the manufacturing: this is not new technology, you just need to commit to it. US was never ready for an artillery war, US is air and sea power. The US does not have a lot of things Russians have just because they have a different doctrine. The doctrine Ukraine can’t use because it does not have modern planes and aircraft carriers. Russia had so much ammo stockpiled (many times more than all the West combined) that it was not ready for it to start running out.

remarkEon 3y ago

Can you actually articulate anything beyond vaguely waiving at the size of the Ukrainian land mass? Is there some hyper critical mineral they have that no one else has? >If you want Germany under Russian control in 30 years stopping giving Ukraine better weapons is the way to go. I'm struggling to understand how this would happen, given Russia is at the point where they're pulling out mothballed T-34s for this and Germany has its own defense industry with modern weapons systems across all levels of war. "If we don't start WWIII over the Donbass, it's on to Berlin for the Russians!" isn't a statement grounded in any evidence or reality.

lisasays 3y ago
Is there some hyper critical mineral they have that no one else has? Actually the main concern in Ukraine is stopping the mass murder, rape and torture of civilians. Bet you didn't think of that.
- failuser 3y ago
  Unfortunately, stopping mass murder, rape and torture is not a very compelling argument for pragmatists. As it was with WWI and WWII. Fortunately, there is a very good pragmatic argument for helping Ukraine win.
  - lisasays 3y ago
    Indeed - there are plenty of obvious pragmatic reasons for Europe's not wanting to have to put up with a recidivist bully on its doorstep, long-term. On top of the stench of all the bodies in Bucha, Mariupol, etc. It's not like it's a big head-scratcher.
failuser 3y ago
In 2008 the world did nothing to stop Russia from invading Georgia. In 2014 the world did next to nothing to stop Russia’s expansion into Ukraine. Even in 2022 the West waited for a while before supplying Ukraine with heavy equipment. Russia is not pulling mothballed T-34s, they don’t have them aside from museum exhibits. Given enough time they can fix their command and manufacturing problems. Contrary to the popular belief Russia learns and is getting better at war as we speak. In 2022 the whole front collapsed, now they can keep holding against Ukrainians armed with western tanks and cruise missiles. Russia will have a generation raised during this war and war propaganda. Right now Russians sabotage the war by inaction and evasion because not that many people actually want to actively participate. That will change over time if the new generation is indoctrinated. This can’t be allowed to happen. If it was Germany on Russian border and without NATO article 5 instead of Ukraine, Berlin would have been taken in 3 days, no amount of modern manufacturing will save you from not having a standing army with proper equipment.
- remarkEon 3y ago
  No one can seem to keep their story straight in this thread. Russia is at the same time a weakend-to-the-point-of-collapse war economy, but also able to conjure up new manufacturing infrastructure from nowhere that would make them able to blitzkrieg their way to Berlin in 3 days. If the US can't replenish their 155mm stockpiles until ~2025, I would love to know what the Russians have figured out about weapons manufacturing that we ostensibly can't. I'm still not seeing why this particular conflict is so critical to the US strategic position that we'd walk ourselves up to direct NATO involvement and WWIII. I suppose if we sleepwalk into WWIII the 155mm problem will solve itself. >If it was Germany on Russian border and without NATO article 5 instead of Ukraine, Berlin would have been taken in 3 days, no amount of modern manufacturing will save you from not having a standing army with proper equipment. Sure, if you posit a bunch of things as true that are not true, you can make any analogy you want.
  - failuser 3y ago
    Russia has encountered significant problems especially compared to the expectations of the US analysts that said it will take over Kyiv in 3 days. But I’m still sure they would have no trouble with taking over modern demilitarized Germany if not for NATO. But it’s far from being defeated. It’s not on the brink. It did not even mobilize the economy. The average guy in Moscow lived as well as before the war or better. About the manufacturing: this is not new technology, you just need to commit to it. US was never ready for an artillery war, US is air and sea power. The US does not have a lot of things Russians have just because they have a different doctrine. The doctrine Ukraine can’t use because it does not have modern planes and aircraft carriers. Russia had so much ammo stockpiled (many times more than all the West combined) that it was not ready for it to start running out.