4 ms·

Operating systems have a really high degree of lock-in. Such that while you -can- change OS, there's simply no incentive to do so. That's why you're still runn

Operating systems have a really high degree of lock-in. Such that while you -can- change OS, there's simply no incentive to do so. That's why you're still running the same OS you always have. [1] You accumulate software yes, but you also accumulate habits and knowledge. Changing OS means discarding all the accumulated knowledge, which 0% of "normal users" want to do. Throw in the change in software, ending up with at least some proportion of worse software, and the desire to change is 0. [1] where "you" applies to a rounding error away from 100%

borissk 3y ago
A lot of people are locked-in Windows, but as Microsoft more and more ruins the OS by pushing advertisement, telemetry, slow cloud services, new versions of apps optimized for those who don't know how to use a computer, rather than experts - there will be plenty of users switching to Linux.
- bruce511 3y ago
  Most users are not even aware of telemetry. Those who find the cloud services slow can just stop using them. The advertising seems to be local to the US because I've never seen it, but I expect users will ignore it just like they ignore it on TV, Google, Facebook, Twitter, on every roadside, at every mall and do on. Frankly advertising is everywhere, avoiding it doesn't seem to be a priority. I think you summed it up. Computer Experts may want to switch to Linux, and likely already have. My mom, who is 40 years a novice, cares less about any of what you listed. Her skill set is small, and her interest in changing is miles below 0. And there are 97% of the world like her and, 3% like you ;)
  - borissk 3y ago
    >> Those who find the cloud services slow can just stop using them. Microsoft has made sure users can't stop using cloud services, unless they spend a ton of effort every time a new update that re-enables them is released. E.g. try to disable the web search in the Windows start menu. >> And there are 97% of the world like her and, 3% like you ;) If the 3% expert users switch away from Windows it will be the beginning of the end for Windows.
    - trimethylpurine 3y ago
      I disabled it and haven't had any issues. Use group policy, quick web search, few steps to follow.
      - borissk 3y ago
        Wait a few months and MS will probably release an update that will break your fix.
- blowski 3y ago
  Will 2024 be the year of Linux on the desktop? This prediction has been made pretty much every year so far this century, no reason to stop now.
  - borissk 3y ago
    How did you go from "a lot of people will switch" to "the year of Linux on desktop"? Microsoft is making a lot of changes that will annoy the expert users. Stuff like a Settings app that has a single screen - e.g. one makes changes to his network setup, decides to increase the brightness of the screen - the Settings app navigates from network to screen and the user progress with network is lost.
- kekebo 3y ago
  WSL being a recent counter factor, as much as I don't enjoy Windows it got a lot more bearable for me since I can manage it through a Debian installation. Filesystem access, Windows program execution and running cmd.exe/powershell commands without having to open either of them removes some of the pain
  - ImPleadThe5th 3y ago
    It's nice and all, but it still feels far from being a first class citizen.
- pjmlp 3y ago
  A common meme since Windows XP was released, on every Windows release.
- taneliv 3y ago
  Heavily doubt that those would make people switch. Maaaybe, if their social circle already uses Linux. However, make the next Minecraft, Fortnite or Roblox work only (or considerably better) on Linux desktop[], and you will suddenly gain a lot more new users. Some of whom will stick around, since all their other apps work the same in the browser. [] Whatever that term means, even the article makes a distinction between that and Chrome OS.
  - rwiggins 3y ago
    It made me switch, anyway, recently - specifically another one of those "Oh, let's finish setting up your computer" (i.e., try to trick you into trying Edge again, probably, or set up a "Microsoft" account) with my only options being "Remind me later" or "OK" was the straw that broke the camel's back. That said, I'm far from your typical desktop user. I'm vaguely Linux sysadmin adjacent, and I ran Linux as my primary OS for many years - until one day I noticed I was mostly booted into Windows for gaming and decided to reclaim that SSD space. Gaming on Linux has come... leaps and bounds. It's actually extraordinary. Still many sharp edges, but the Steam Deck might in fact be the first spark of a revolution here. We'll see, I guess.
    - pjmlp 3y ago
      By emulating Windows, while failing to attract anyone targeting POSIX platforms to port their games into GNU/Linux, not even Android.
      - rwiggins 3y ago
        Is this where I'm supposed to say Wine Is Not an Emulator? ;-) Jokes aside, totally right, and unfortunately, in my experience it's often a better experience to run the Windows port under Wine than it is to use the native version. e.g. the native version of Tyranny is just a black box for me, but the Wine version works pretty flawlessly. I think userspace is just too unstable, and game companies probably don't want a forever-ongoing maintenance cost just to keep their old games running.
  - 3y ago
- NexRebular 3y ago
  A lot of people are also locked-in linux if they have to use e.g. docker or kubernetes, not to mention FOSS hooked to systemd or other linux-specific technologies. Say goodbye to compatibility and portability to other systems.
smaudet 3y ago
Hmm I don't find this true at all for really any of the systems. If you stick to windows xp or roll your own Linux distros maybe this is true, but I barely know how to use any windows box. Bunch of black registry magic and constantly changing UI nonsense, literally Google and sometimes msdn are how I survive there. Ubuntu/Fedora all go through fits of hipness and constantly change how things are done. Config files one day, services and runtime the next. UIs are really non-standard and always breaking something or other. OSX...first time I used it I was learning Unix systems. I went back to it and it was an unholy mess of gotchas. Android is still hurtling through versions every year and I have no idea what "current" phone looks like, I probably hate it. When I have been unfortunate enough to use iOS it was like being made Legos trying to build other Legos. It was a right pain. There are some common design patterns and the like but that tends to be in spite of the OS, not because of it.
- bruce511 3y ago
  The change from say one version of Windows to the next is tiny, and happens every 5 years or so. Changing from one OS to another is orders of magnitude more complex. As you point out above jumping between them is painful. Your job may require you to do that, but you're a tiny sliver of the work-force, never mind everyone else. My book-keeper has never encountered the Windows Registry. You're thinking of the OS as an actual bit of software you interact with. For 99.99% of users it's invisible. They just want printing to happen when they press the print button.
  - arc-in-space 3y ago
    > The change from say one version of Windows to the next is tiny Huh?! That's bullshit. I had recently tried to fix something on family's PC that upgraded itself to Win11 and had absolutely no clue how to navigate all the new settings panels even though I use 10 near daily.
    - TillE 3y ago
      You use the search box, just like you find settings in macOS / iOS / etc. No sane person is expected to memorize configuration GUIs these days.
toast0 3y ago
> Changing OS means discarding all the accumulated knowledge, which 0% of "normal users" want to do. More and more upgrading the OS means discarding a large amount of accumulated knowledge as well, which normal users don't want to do, but don't have much of a choice.
borski 3y ago
I’m not so sure. Everyone used to have a Dell/Sony/IBM running Windows. A decade later everyone has a MacBook. It just has to be much much better.
Gareth321 3y ago
> You accumulate software yes, but you also accumulate habits and knowledge. Changing OS means discarding all the accumulated knowledge, which 0% of "normal users" want to do. I only ever hear Linux users make this argument. Mac users are confident enough in MacOS UX that they know it’s not a significant barrier to transition. The same is not true of Linux. So many solutions to problems require opening the CLI, and that’s just an automatic fail for the vast majority of consumers. Honestly, I would like Linux fans to just accept Linux for what it is: an amazing kernel with incredible GUIs built by and for developers. App developers just do not care about (or do not have the resources for) making simple and intuitive software. Valve is a welcome and notable exception with the Steam Deck. Linus Torvalds explains it perfectly: https://youtu.be/Pzl1B7nB9Kc https://youtu.be/Pzl1B7nB9Kc
- jorvi 3y ago
  > Mac users are confident enough in MacOS UX that they know it’s not a significant barrier to transition I bought my mother a Macbook during the Snow Leopard era and we sold it after 2 months because she could absolutely not get used to the UI, since she had been using Windows since basically forever. So much for "intuitive UI".
  - Gareth321 3y ago
    Huh. My mother hand no issues. I guess your mileage may vary.
  - bruce511 3y ago
    This is exactly my point, and indeed the point of the parent. If you know Windows use Windows. If you know Mac, use Mac. There is no reason to make your mom (or my mom) switch. And while MacOS may be intuitive, its less intuitive if you come from something else. I used one for a bit and found everything "backwards". One version of Mac to another or one version of Windows to another is trivial compared to changing from one to the other. Obviously the Linux CLI is waaay beyond most average people. So it's a non starter anyway.

borissk 3y ago

A lot of people are locked-in Windows, but as Microsoft more and more ruins the OS by pushing advertisement, telemetry, slow cloud services, new versions of apps optimized for those who don't know how to use a computer, rather than experts - there will be plenty of users switching to Linux.

bruce511 3y ago
Most users are not even aware of telemetry. Those who find the cloud services slow can just stop using them. The advertising seems to be local to the US because I've never seen it, but I expect users will ignore it just like they ignore it on TV, Google, Facebook, Twitter, on every roadside, at every mall and do on. Frankly advertising is everywhere, avoiding it doesn't seem to be a priority. I think you summed it up. Computer Experts may want to switch to Linux, and likely already have. My mom, who is 40 years a novice, cares less about any of what you listed. Her skill set is small, and her interest in changing is miles below 0. And there are 97% of the world like her and, 3% like you ;)
- borissk 3y ago
  >> Those who find the cloud services slow can just stop using them. Microsoft has made sure users can't stop using cloud services, unless they spend a ton of effort every time a new update that re-enables them is released. E.g. try to disable the web search in the Windows start menu. >> And there are 97% of the world like her and, 3% like you ;) If the 3% expert users switch away from Windows it will be the beginning of the end for Windows.
  - trimethylpurine 3y ago
    I disabled it and haven't had any issues. Use group policy, quick web search, few steps to follow.
    - borissk 3y ago
      Wait a few months and MS will probably release an update that will break your fix.
blowski 3y ago
Will 2024 be the year of Linux on the desktop? This prediction has been made pretty much every year so far this century, no reason to stop now.
- borissk 3y ago
  How did you go from "a lot of people will switch" to "the year of Linux on desktop"? Microsoft is making a lot of changes that will annoy the expert users. Stuff like a Settings app that has a single screen - e.g. one makes changes to his network setup, decides to increase the brightness of the screen - the Settings app navigates from network to screen and the user progress with network is lost.
kekebo 3y ago
WSL being a recent counter factor, as much as I don't enjoy Windows it got a lot more bearable for me since I can manage it through a Debian installation. Filesystem access, Windows program execution and running cmd.exe/powershell commands without having to open either of them removes some of the pain
- ImPleadThe5th 3y ago
  It's nice and all, but it still feels far from being a first class citizen.
pjmlp 3y ago
A common meme since Windows XP was released, on every Windows release.
taneliv 3y ago
Heavily doubt that those would make people switch. Maaaybe, if their social circle already uses Linux. However, make the next Minecraft, Fortnite or Roblox work only (or considerably better) on Linux desktop[], and you will suddenly gain a lot more new users. Some of whom will stick around, since all their other apps work the same in the browser. [] Whatever that term means, even the article makes a distinction between that and Chrome OS.
- rwiggins 3y ago
  It made me switch, anyway, recently - specifically another one of those "Oh, let's finish setting up your computer" (i.e., try to trick you into trying Edge again, probably, or set up a "Microsoft" account) with my only options being "Remind me later" or "OK" was the straw that broke the camel's back. That said, I'm far from your typical desktop user. I'm vaguely Linux sysadmin adjacent, and I ran Linux as my primary OS for many years - until one day I noticed I was mostly booted into Windows for gaming and decided to reclaim that SSD space. Gaming on Linux has come... leaps and bounds. It's actually extraordinary. Still many sharp edges, but the Steam Deck might in fact be the first spark of a revolution here. We'll see, I guess.
  - pjmlp 3y ago
    By emulating Windows, while failing to attract anyone targeting POSIX platforms to port their games into GNU/Linux, not even Android.
    - rwiggins 3y ago
      Is this where I'm supposed to say Wine Is Not an Emulator? ;-) Jokes aside, totally right, and unfortunately, in my experience it's often a better experience to run the Windows port under Wine than it is to use the native version. e.g. the native version of Tyranny is just a black box for me, but the Wine version works pretty flawlessly. I think userspace is just too unstable, and game companies probably don't want a forever-ongoing maintenance cost just to keep their old games running.
- 3y ago
NexRebular 3y ago
A lot of people are also locked-in linux if they have to use e.g. docker or kubernetes, not to mention FOSS hooked to systemd or other linux-specific technologies. Say goodbye to compatibility and portability to other systems.

smaudet 3y ago

Hmm I don't find this true at all for really any of the systems. If you stick to windows xp or roll your own Linux distros maybe this is true, but I barely know how to use any windows box. Bunch of black registry magic and constantly changing UI nonsense, literally Google and sometimes msdn are how I survive there. Ubuntu/Fedora all go through fits of hipness and constantly change how things are done. Config files one day, services and runtime the next. UIs are really non-standard and always breaking something or other. OSX...first time I used it I was learning Unix systems. I went back to it and it was an unholy mess of gotchas. Android is still hurtling through versions every year and I have no idea what "current" phone looks like, I probably hate it. When I have been unfortunate enough to use iOS it was like being made Legos trying to build other Legos. It was a right pain. There are some common design patterns and the like but that tends to be in spite of the OS, not because of it.

bruce511 3y ago
The change from say one version of Windows to the next is tiny, and happens every 5 years or so. Changing from one OS to another is orders of magnitude more complex. As you point out above jumping between them is painful. Your job may require you to do that, but you're a tiny sliver of the work-force, never mind everyone else. My book-keeper has never encountered the Windows Registry. You're thinking of the OS as an actual bit of software you interact with. For 99.99% of users it's invisible. They just want printing to happen when they press the print button.
- arc-in-space 3y ago
  > The change from say one version of Windows to the next is tiny Huh?! That's bullshit. I had recently tried to fix something on family's PC that upgraded itself to Win11 and had absolutely no clue how to navigate all the new settings panels even though I use 10 near daily.
  - TillE 3y ago
    You use the search box, just like you find settings in macOS / iOS / etc. No sane person is expected to memorize configuration GUIs these days.

toast0 3y ago

> Changing OS means discarding all the accumulated knowledge, which 0% of "normal users" want to do. More and more upgrading the OS means discarding a large amount of accumulated knowledge as well, which normal users don't want to do, but don't have much of a choice.

borski 3y ago

I’m not so sure. Everyone used to have a Dell/Sony/IBM running Windows. A decade later everyone has a MacBook. It just has to be much much better.

Gareth321 3y ago

> You accumulate software yes, but you also accumulate habits and knowledge. Changing OS means discarding all the accumulated knowledge, which 0% of "normal users" want to do. I only ever hear Linux users make this argument. Mac users are confident enough in MacOS UX that they know it’s not a significant barrier to transition. The same is not true of Linux. So many solutions to problems require opening the CLI, and that’s just an automatic fail for the vast majority of consumers. Honestly, I would like Linux fans to just accept Linux for what it is: an amazing kernel with incredible GUIs built by and for developers. App developers just do not care about (or do not have the resources for) making simple and intuitive software. Valve is a welcome and notable exception with the Steam Deck. Linus Torvalds explains it perfectly: https://youtu.be/Pzl1B7nB9Kc https://youtu.be/Pzl1B7nB9Kc

jorvi 3y ago
> Mac users are confident enough in MacOS UX that they know it’s not a significant barrier to transition I bought my mother a Macbook during the Snow Leopard era and we sold it after 2 months because she could absolutely not get used to the UI, since she had been using Windows since basically forever. So much for "intuitive UI".
- Gareth321 3y ago
  Huh. My mother hand no issues. I guess your mileage may vary.
- bruce511 3y ago
  This is exactly my point, and indeed the point of the parent. If you know Windows use Windows. If you know Mac, use Mac. There is no reason to make your mom (or my mom) switch. And while MacOS may be intuitive, its less intuitive if you come from something else. I used one for a bit and found everything "backwards". One version of Mac to another or one version of Windows to another is trivial compared to changing from one to the other. Obviously the Linux CLI is waaay beyond most average people. So it's a non starter anyway.