5 ms·

Top reason to use RSA for me, as with most tech I use, is its longevity. Lindy Effect has been the best predictor of what will still work in five years.

withinboredom 3y ago
The fact that the sun rose today, has no effect on whether the sun will rise tomorrow.
- Strom 3y ago
  And yet I doubt you would be willing to bet against the sun rising tomorrow. Our understanding is based on imperfect models, sure. That doesn't matter most of the time. It wouldn't matter in this bet. So much of what any lifeform does is based on past experience, even though that experience isn't the direct driver of future effects. Turns out that bets based on experience work really well.
  - withinboredom 3y ago
    Of course I’d bet the sun would rise tomorrow, because if it doesn’t, I’m either dead or money will be worthless… The same applies here, would you bet on a horse that is flagging (RSA won’t work forever)? We have the ability to take in new information, and throw away past information because it is no longer relevant. If you choose to ignore the new information, just because “it’s always been that way”, that doesn’t seem rational.
  - cbm-vic-20 3y ago
    Indeed. The sun has successfully rose every morning, hundreds of billions of times straight! That's a pretty good record.
    - withinboredom 3y ago
      Do you have a proof of that? I've been to places where the sun doesn't rise for months on end...
- sn0wf1re 3y ago
  It does though. If it failed to rise today due to some cosmic anomaly, it would very likely fail to rise tomorrow.
  - withinboredom 3y ago
    When you die, from your perspective, the sun doesn't rise. It doesn't have to be a cosmic anomaly. For every single human, there are more days the sun doesn't rise than does.
raggi 3y ago
The Lindy effect applies to non-perishables. There are alternatives which are much more likely to conform to a reasonable equivalency of non-perishable for cryptography. Per this article, RSA strongly does not fit reasonable equivalent definitions.
HappyPanacea 3y ago
McEliece encryption algorithm was published in 1978 (one year later than RSA) and seems to be considered safe to classical and quantum computers, the only downside is the huge public key size.

withinboredom 3y ago

The fact that the sun rose today, has no effect on whether the sun will rise tomorrow.

Strom 3y ago
And yet I doubt you would be willing to bet against the sun rising tomorrow. Our understanding is based on imperfect models, sure. That doesn't matter most of the time. It wouldn't matter in this bet. So much of what any lifeform does is based on past experience, even though that experience isn't the direct driver of future effects. Turns out that bets based on experience work really well.
- withinboredom 3y ago
  Of course I’d bet the sun would rise tomorrow, because if it doesn’t, I’m either dead or money will be worthless… The same applies here, would you bet on a horse that is flagging (RSA won’t work forever)? We have the ability to take in new information, and throw away past information because it is no longer relevant. If you choose to ignore the new information, just because “it’s always been that way”, that doesn’t seem rational.
- cbm-vic-20 3y ago
  Indeed. The sun has successfully rose every morning, hundreds of billions of times straight! That's a pretty good record.
  - withinboredom 3y ago
    Do you have a proof of that? I've been to places where the sun doesn't rise for months on end...
sn0wf1re 3y ago
It does though. If it failed to rise today due to some cosmic anomaly, it would very likely fail to rise tomorrow.
- withinboredom 3y ago
  When you die, from your perspective, the sun doesn't rise. It doesn't have to be a cosmic anomaly. For every single human, there are more days the sun doesn't rise than does.

raggi 3y ago

The Lindy effect applies to non-perishables. There are alternatives which are much more likely to conform to a reasonable equivalency of non-perishable for cryptography. Per this article, RSA strongly does not fit reasonable equivalent definitions.

HappyPanacea 3y ago

McEliece encryption algorithm was published in 1978 (one year later than RSA) and seems to be considered safe to classical and quantum computers, the only downside is the huge public key size.