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No. Psychology is the worst. It is encouraging that an insurgent group is taking replication on but it feels like only about 20% of the field. Some results do
by joshe 3y ago
No. Psychology is the worst. It is encouraging that an insurgent group is taking replication on but it feels like only about 20% of the field.
Some results do replicate. Big Five personality traits, general classification of mental illness, mainstream IQ results, and human perception and performance. All psychology is not false and there are interesting things to learn from the field.
But the severity and frequency of fraud and non replication is worst in psychology. So much so that half of what you learned in Psych 101 ten years ago does not replicate.
The big challenge for the field is that humans know a lot of psychology. We can track our own thoughts and we are constantly interacting with people and trying to understand their psychology. A biologist who studies ants intensely for 5 years is maybe only one of 100 people have ever watched them that carefully. They'll find lots of new stuff.
Psychology doesn't have powerful techniques than that for determining new truths about humans. It's still mostly give a questionnaire or put people in weird situations.
So there are a lot of researchers hunting around for original ideas that are undiscoverable with our current tech. Some of them are bound to give into the temptation to just make up an interesting result with manufactured data. With p hacking they might not even be committing fraud, they are desperate for a positive result, when the get one they stop looking and publish.
So I would still guess in 2023 that about 80% of "new" discoveries published in journals won't replicate. That rises to 95% with journal publications that are published as university pr and reported in the media.
For coverage of what to remember to unlearn Rolf Degen is great: https://twitter.com/DegenRolf https://twitter.com/DegenRolf
Popular examples that do not replicate (mostly from Rolf):
Repressed childhood memories
Social media harms
Search bubbles and echo chambers
Women prefer masculine men when fertile
Priming (you see a fight in the hallway and then don't cooperate later)
Power posing (puff out your chest to feel more confident)
Watching eyes make people more honest (in Kahneman and Malcolm Gladwell)
Notice that a lot of these are interesting, and you want them to be true. That's not enough to make it so.
As a bonus, an interesting interview with Daniel Kahneman: https://www.edge.org/adversarial-collaboration-daniel-kahneman https://www.edge.org/adversarial-collaboration-daniel-kahnem...