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I think reality will be somewhere in between. I believe transformer models will unlock value for many enterprise applications + as reasoning engines taking acti

I think reality will be somewhere in between. I believe transformer models will unlock value for many enterprise applications + as reasoning engines taking action on behalf of consumers. I think we'll need many more breakthroughs to hit AGI. May be possible in 2 years, but very unlikely. I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Another bottleneck in AGI is its fundamental inability to self reproduce. Silicon intelligence is artificial and doesn't have the ability to recreate/modify/extend itself. This is more on the hardware side of things. Not that I'm advocating for AGI at all by the way. Just saying AGI in 2 years is quite unlikely.

randmeerkat 3y ago
> I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Microsoft has published two research papers, one on robotics and ChatGPT and another on GPT4’s capabilities. They do call out that the foundation model can’t solve novel problems yet, but there is an expectation that the next model could.