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It's sad that are multiple retorts about "lottery winners." Apparently, just on HN, we have about 25 lottery winners. Quite the coincidence! (cloudflare, shopi
by reducesuffering 3y ago
It's sad that are multiple retorts about "lottery winners." Apparently, just on HN, we have about 25 lottery winners. Quite the coincidence!
(cloudflare, shopify, databricks, coinbase, stripe, openai, freshworks, gitlab, dropbox, hashicorp, amplitude, vercel, plaid, hubspot, quip, notion, twilio, etc)
- jrm4 3y agoOut of....
- reducesuffering 3y agoCertainly not 1 billion, which is what the lottery chances would be to win 25 times. (1 in 42m)
- graton 3y agoI don't understand this logic. The US has the Powerball lottery. So far it has been won 403 times[1] what seems around 20 year time span. With a US population of around 360 million. So not sure why 25 winners would require a population of 1 billion. [1] https://www.powerball.net/winners https://www.powerball.net/winners
- reducesuffering 3y agoI was using some state odds. Ok so 1 in 1m for Powerball, yet HN is ~3m, so we have 1 in 100k on HN. Already an order of magnitude difference. Then, of course, not even 1 in 100 here are actually giving a startup a serious go. So comparing successful startups to the lottery is easily 1000x off.
- jrm4 3y agoDo you understand what a metaphor is?
- reducesuffering 3y agoOf course. Stats say it’s a bad one though
- jrm4 3y agoNot really; the "lottery" includes all the stupid smaller games too.