4 ms·

Ask HN: What will AI look like in 2025?

7 points by KoalaHN 3y ago

randmeerkat 3y ago
Either the hype is correct and we’ll have the singularity by then, or it’s not and it will look more or less the same, while running on commodity hardware.
- Anessk01 3y ago
  I think reality will be somewhere in between. I believe transformer models will unlock value for many enterprise applications + as reasoning engines taking action on behalf of consumers. I think we'll need many more breakthroughs to hit AGI. May be possible in 2 years, but very unlikely. I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Another bottleneck in AGI is its fundamental inability to self reproduce. Silicon intelligence is artificial and doesn't have the ability to recreate/modify/extend itself. This is more on the hardware side of things. Not that I'm advocating for AGI at all by the way. Just saying AGI in 2 years is quite unlikely.
  - randmeerkat 3y ago
    > I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Microsoft has published two research papers, one on robotics and ChatGPT and another on GPT4’s capabilities. They do call out that the foundation model can’t solve novel problems yet, but there is an expectation that the next model could.
ksaj 3y ago
Personally I think it'll still be a novel toy for a lot of people. But the big difference is it'll be on commodity devices. This is already starting to happen. I have a Coral Edge TPU connected to a Raspberry Pi. Yes, it is limited, but considering the whole getup costs less than $200 and does stuff I couldn't possibly do 6 months ago, it is pretty amazing. In the future, at least this aspect of it will be more commoditized. Edge devices will feel pretty much like they do today, but without needing a connection to cloud metal to do similar work. But we'll still have to verify its work all the time, because so-called hallucinations are not going away unless we program the models to self-check and verify their output. What will keep this at a slow steady pace though, is that the cloud vendors really want everyone to use their services so they make money. So there will be some really souped up abilities that you'll still want/need to pay for through them. But edge TPUs will be the norm very soon.
version_five 3y ago
About what it looked like in 2021, plus some conversational assistants and some more chatbots replacing customer support that we'll come to hate. Re 2021 I mean lots going on but less sexy and not the topic de jour for the hustlebro types. Focused on realistic incremental applications. Presumably there will be some new take on NFTs or ICOs onto which the hype crowd has churned. Also way more red tape.
morelandjs 3y ago
Similar to what you see today, but wide spread acceptance and adoption. Companies that that are worried about privacy issues today will get over their reservation by 2025. Many software jobs will provide some kind of access to one of big tech models. I think terms will emerge around querying LLMs similar to how Googling became a term. Peoples’ behaviors will change and they’ll query models more regularly for more use cases. AI generated contributions will become more culturally acceptable.

7 points by KoalaHN 3y ago

Either the hype is correct and we’ll have the singularity by then, or it’s not and it will look more or less the same, while running on commodity hardware.

Anessk01 3y ago
I think reality will be somewhere in between. I believe transformer models will unlock value for many enterprise applications + as reasoning engines taking action on behalf of consumers. I think we'll need many more breakthroughs to hit AGI. May be possible in 2 years, but very unlikely. I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Another bottleneck in AGI is its fundamental inability to self reproduce. Silicon intelligence is artificial and doesn't have the ability to recreate/modify/extend itself. This is more on the hardware side of things. Not that I'm advocating for AGI at all by the way. Just saying AGI in 2 years is quite unlikely.
- randmeerkat 3y ago
  > I think the next bottleneck to reach AGI status is interfacing AI models with the physical world, where they can conduct scientific experiments and recreate consensus conclusions on their own. Microsoft has published two research papers, one on robotics and ChatGPT and another on GPT4’s capabilities. They do call out that the foundation model can’t solve novel problems yet, but there is an expectation that the next model could.

ksaj 3y ago

Personally I think it'll still be a novel toy for a lot of people. But the big difference is it'll be on commodity devices. This is already starting to happen. I have a Coral Edge TPU connected to a Raspberry Pi. Yes, it is limited, but considering the whole getup costs less than $200 and does stuff I couldn't possibly do 6 months ago, it is pretty amazing. In the future, at least this aspect of it will be more commoditized. Edge devices will feel pretty much like they do today, but without needing a connection to cloud metal to do similar work. But we'll still have to verify its work all the time, because so-called hallucinations are not going away unless we program the models to self-check and verify their output. What will keep this at a slow steady pace though, is that the cloud vendors really want everyone to use their services so they make money. So there will be some really souped up abilities that you'll still want/need to pay for through them. But edge TPUs will be the norm very soon.

version_five 3y ago

About what it looked like in 2021, plus some conversational assistants and some more chatbots replacing customer support that we'll come to hate. Re 2021 I mean lots going on but less sexy and not the topic de jour for the hustlebro types. Focused on realistic incremental applications. Presumably there will be some new take on NFTs or ICOs onto which the hype crowd has churned. Also way more red tape.

morelandjs 3y ago

Similar to what you see today, but wide spread acceptance and adoption. Companies that that are worried about privacy issues today will get over their reservation by 2025. Many software jobs will provide some kind of access to one of big tech models. I think terms will emerge around querying LLMs similar to how Googling became a term. Peoples’ behaviors will change and they’ll query models more regularly for more use cases. AI generated contributions will become more culturally acceptable.