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Unpopular opinion: One of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the next 2 decades is avoiding a catastrophic "Great Simplification" as we run out of oil. I

Unpopular opinion: One of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the next 2 decades is avoiding a catastrophic "Great Simplification" as we run out of oil. If this were allowed to happen, we'd suddenly be unable to practice industrial scale agriculture, and I'd estimate 90% of humanity would starve to death. The US produces large amounts of oil via fracking, which requires more resources to drill and produce than previous methods. At the same time, the wells tend to decline at 40% per year. These wells are making up a larger percentage of our fossil fuel production as time goes by. At some point the energy and resources required to drill a well will match the possible production, and new wells won't make sense, leading to collapse. Without fossil fuels for transportation, and especially as chemical feedstock to creating fertilizers, food shortages would quickly appear world-wide. We need to transition away from fossil fuels to avoid this fate. In doing so, we'll also help reduce, and perhaps eliminate the addition of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, which is a far more immediate concern in the minds of many.

palata 3y ago
YES! Peak of conventional oil was in 2008, Europe feels it economically. Global peak oil is around now. We are facing a big energy problem, and we don't have any viable alternatives (renewables are just not up to the task, even nuclear is not). > We need to transition away from fossil fuels to avoid this fate. Yes, IMHO that involves degrowth: do less with less. Doesn't mean living like in the Middle Age, but make technology that helps degrowth. That's a big technical challenge that is not in fashion (because we love to jump on ChatGPT APIs and feel like we are productive making prototypes using it).
- MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
  > Global peak oil is around now. Source?
  - mikewarot 3y ago
    Production peaked a few years ago[1]. Additionally, the energy required to recover a barrel of oil from shale, etc. is far more than from traditional sources.[2] [1] https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment
    - thfuran 3y ago
      That looks like a pretty constant upward trend that just juked due to COVID and a lack of more recent data.
    - MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
      We’re projected to hit a new global production record this year. I used to work in the shale industry so I know how it works. Yes it’s more intensive but breakevens for fracked wells are down to what breakevens for conventional wells were 20-30 years ago. They have superior technology and processes now that are only getting better, more efficient, and cheaper. There is a lot of money at stake and a ton of very smart people working on this stuff.
reducesuffering 3y ago
The globe is absolutely nowhere near facing dwindling oil supplies in 2 decades. We won't even hit our proven reserves in that time, and companies frequently spend $ to find more reserves on an as-needed basis. Current usage trajectory of oil is roughly a century. Oil's problem is the CO2 emissions causing climate change. proven reserves/consumption = 47 years left https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/
MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
> At some point the energy and resources required to drill a well will match the possible production, and new wells won't make sense, leading to collapse. The world thought this around 2005 or so and then fracing technology changed everything. Every year new tech is being invented that makes previously uneconomic wells profitable to drill. Further, there is still so much oil out there. You are right about society collapsing and everyone dying without oil though, but I don’t think that will happen.
zhte415 3y ago
A quite Malthusian prediction [1]. Your comment also hints at the repostes by Engels (technological progress) or Ricardo (pricing out, or alternative). To a united communist-capitalist solution! And a worthy path for OP. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism

palata 3y ago

YES! Peak of conventional oil was in 2008, Europe feels it economically. Global peak oil is around now. We are facing a big energy problem, and we don't have any viable alternatives (renewables are just not up to the task, even nuclear is not). > We need to transition away from fossil fuels to avoid this fate. Yes, IMHO that involves degrowth: do less with less. Doesn't mean living like in the Middle Age, but make technology that helps degrowth. That's a big technical challenge that is not in fashion (because we love to jump on ChatGPT APIs and feel like we are productive making prototypes using it).

MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
> Global peak oil is around now. Source?
- mikewarot 3y ago
  Production peaked a few years ago[1]. Additionally, the energy required to recover a barrel of oil from shale, etc. is far more than from traditional sources.[2] [1] https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_return_on_investment
  - thfuran 3y ago
    That looks like a pretty constant upward trend that just juked due to COVID and a lack of more recent data.
  - MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago
    We’re projected to hit a new global production record this year. I used to work in the shale industry so I know how it works. Yes it’s more intensive but breakevens for fracked wells are down to what breakevens for conventional wells were 20-30 years ago. They have superior technology and processes now that are only getting better, more efficient, and cheaper. There is a lot of money at stake and a ton of very smart people working on this stuff.

reducesuffering 3y ago

The globe is absolutely nowhere near facing dwindling oil supplies in 2 decades. We won't even hit our proven reserves in that time, and companies frequently spend $ to find more reserves on an as-needed basis. Current usage trajectory of oil is roughly a century. Oil's problem is the CO2 emissions causing climate change. proven reserves/consumption = 47 years left https://www.worldometers.info/oil/ https://www.worldometers.info/oil/

MaxHoppersGhost 3y ago

> At some point the energy and resources required to drill a well will match the possible production, and new wells won't make sense, leading to collapse. The world thought this around 2005 or so and then fracing technology changed everything. Every year new tech is being invented that makes previously uneconomic wells profitable to drill. Further, there is still so much oil out there. You are right about society collapsing and everyone dying without oil though, but I don’t think that will happen.

zhte415 3y ago

A quite Malthusian prediction [1]. Your comment also hints at the repostes by Engels (technological progress) or Ricardo (pricing out, or alternative). To a united communist-capitalist solution! And a worthy path for OP. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malthusianism