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This Friday there was severe thunder and rain around here while the forecast said no rain at all. The reason was, they had 3 different models running and all of
by chrisandchris 3y ago
This Friday there was severe thunder and rain around here while the forecast said no rain at all. The reason was, they had 3 different models running and all of them gave the whole week different results (basically no overlap), so they just took the most probable, which was totally wrong.
I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation.
- adrianN 3y agoIt’s very hard to predict a single coin flip accurately, it’s extremely easy to predict the averages over a thousand coin flips.
- Timon3 3y ago> I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation. You say you know these models aren't that much related, but you still question the precision based on weather models. So do you, or do you not think they are much related? If you throw a marble into a pit I can't easily predict which path it will take, but I can tell you where it will end up with which likelihood.