3 ms·

No need to predict this. Greenhouse experiments are conducted regularly with these conditions. There's plenty of data on it.

chrisandchris 3y ago
This Friday there was severe thunder and rain around here while the forecast said no rain at all. The reason was, they had 3 different models running and all of them gave the whole week different results (basically no overlap), so they just took the most probable, which was totally wrong. I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation.
- adrianN 3y ago
  It’s very hard to predict a single coin flip accurately, it’s extremely easy to predict the averages over a thousand coin flips.
- Timon3 3y ago
  > I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation. You say you know these models aren't that much related, but you still question the precision based on weather models. So do you, or do you not think they are much related? If you throw a marble into a pit I can't easily predict which path it will take, but I can tell you where it will end up with which likelihood.
londons_explore 3y ago
You can test individual plants, but it's hard to test the effect of evolution in a greenhouse unless you want to wait 1000 years...
- chrisco255 3y ago
  Evolution takes a lot longer than 1000 years to affect fundamental processes like photosynthesis, which is an ancient biological chemical reaction. Plants experienced thousands of ppm of CO2 and warmer temperatures for most of Earth's 1 billion plus year history. The fossil fuels that are being burned, the carbon that is being burned, is dead plant matter from millions of years ago, when CO2 was thousands of ppm.

chrisandchris 3y ago

This Friday there was severe thunder and rain around here while the forecast said no rain at all. The reason was, they had 3 different models running and all of them gave the whole week different results (basically no overlap), so they just took the most probable, which was totally wrong. I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation.

adrianN 3y ago
It’s very hard to predict a single coin flip accurately, it’s extremely easy to predict the averages over a thousand coin flips.
Timon3 3y ago
> I know these models are not that mich related, but when we can't look at the wheather of tomorrow, I question the precision of a model looking 1000 years into the future a bit. It will get warmer, for sure. But _how much_ is IMHO subject to interpretation. You say you know these models aren't that much related, but you still question the precision based on weather models. So do you, or do you not think they are much related? If you throw a marble into a pit I can't easily predict which path it will take, but I can tell you where it will end up with which likelihood.

londons_explore 3y ago

You can test individual plants, but it's hard to test the effect of evolution in a greenhouse unless you want to wait 1000 years...

chrisco255 3y ago
Evolution takes a lot longer than 1000 years to affect fundamental processes like photosynthesis, which is an ancient biological chemical reaction. Plants experienced thousands of ppm of CO2 and warmer temperatures for most of Earth's 1 billion plus year history. The fossil fuels that are being burned, the carbon that is being burned, is dead plant matter from millions of years ago, when CO2 was thousands of ppm.