At some point I ran across this strategy for estimating when you’re the one doing it: Take whatever time you think it’ll take, then double it. Then add 20%* Th

At some point I ran across this strategy for estimating when you’re the one doing it: Take whatever time you think it’ll take, then double it. Then add 20%* Things still go off the rails of course making an an imperfect solution, but it ends up being more right than any other method I’ve tried. *If there are any unknown unknowns I might start multiplying by the number of big ones.