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https://archive.is/u57SD https://archive.is/u57SD The cited report is at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CEA-OMB-White-Paper.pdf https://
by Bostonian 3y ago
https://archive.is/u57SD https://archive.is/u57SD
The cited report is at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CEA-OMB-White-Paper.pdf https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CEA-OM....
"The report, produced by the Council of Economic Advisers and the Office of Management and Budget, assesses how the economic consequences of climate change could be integrated into federal budgeting. The report’s first figure—reproduced nearby—shows 12 independent peer-reviewed estimates of how America’s gross domestic product would decline as the global temperature rises.
While the estimates differ, each shows an economic impact of less than a few percentage points for a few degrees of warming. The consensus, apart from two counterbalancing outliers, is that today’s warming of 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit has reduced GDP by less than 0.5%. That is trivial, considering real GDP has grown by more than 800% since 1950. If warming reaches 4.5 degrees—about what the United Nation’s climate panel projects for 2100 under plausible scenarios for future global emissions—the consensus reduction amounts to less than 2%. In other words, if the average annual GDP growth rate is 1.5% for the next 80 years, the economy would grow 232%. A 2% climate-change effect would reduce that growth to 225%. As physicists say, that’s a difference “in the noise.”"
- generativenoise 3y agoI find the assumptions of the economic analysis I have seem pretty dubious. They assume way too much linearity and fungibility in the system that just doesn't appear to be there. We are just going to keep kicking the pendulum until it transitions out of its nice linear region.