4 ms·

While Francois Chollet is not actually an employee of OpenAI, and while that article simply quotes a tweet he made rather than a substantive interview .. .. thi

While Francois Chollet is not actually an employee of OpenAI, and while that article simply quotes a tweet he made rather than a substantive interview .. .. this is still clearly a big problem for OpenAI as students trying to cheat on exams is a highly profitable $1T industry that Microsoft badly needs to disrupt.

tomcam 3y ago
> $1T industry Does that mean $1 trillion? If so, citation badly needed.
- choppaface 3y ago
  sarcasm but there was once a time Chegg shareholders probably thought the market was that big https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2021/01/28/this-12-billion-company-is-getting-rich-off-students-cheating-their-way-through-covid/?sh=716e1f4f363f https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2021/01/28/this-12-b...
  - tomcam 3y ago
    D’oh! Funny as hell once I get the joke!
- booleandilemma 3y ago
  Surely that's sarcasm. Students don't have money to pay for anything.
  - tomcam 3y ago
    Dopey me, should’ve caught that
    - choppaface 3y ago
      But that’s part of the point: ChatGPT is so hyped it bends perception. The OP article after all quoted a Google employee who has nothing to do with ChatGPT.
  - svnt 3y ago
    I mean they are buying degrees for six figures. If it meant good grades without doing the work and it became socially acceptable it is ~150 million global tertiary students times 10 months of the year times whatever that is worth on a monthly basis. Maybe only $150B ARR right now at $100/mo (textbooks to read cost more than this, but you don’t need them anymore), so not $1T on students but still massive, and if you capture them in pre/early career it is easily $1T in ARR once your queue deepens.
    - choppaface 3y ago
      And Coursera opened at a $6b market cap. So how do we value ChatGPT then? Should it be as valuable as Coursera, Udacity etc put together? Should it be that PLUS Harvard Deloitte and ServiceNow? Or since they have no major moat should it be Zero? It’s hype of this scale that can rationalize unprecedented figures. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/31/coursera-ipo-cour-begins-trading-on-the-nyse.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/31/coursera-ipo-cour-begins...
      - svnt 3y ago
        I should make explicit that I think it is impossible to achieve in practice because higher education will collapse completely before they achieve any fraction of market saturation with the numbers I wrote. Coursera is a discount retailer of tertiary education so I don’t see any relevant connection. ChatGPT/OpenAI specifically is probably already overvalued unless they have some first-mover advantage that I can’t see. Someone else has said it many times over but I agree that LLMs will disappear into the technology stack — a rising tide that lifts many market caps.

tomcam 3y ago

> $1T industry Does that mean $1 trillion? If so, citation badly needed.

choppaface 3y ago
sarcasm but there was once a time Chegg shareholders probably thought the market was that big https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2021/01/28/this-12-billion-company-is-getting-rich-off-students-cheating-their-way-through-covid/?sh=716e1f4f363f https://www.forbes.com/sites/susanadams/2021/01/28/this-12-b...
- tomcam 3y ago
  D’oh! Funny as hell once I get the joke!
booleandilemma 3y ago
Surely that's sarcasm. Students don't have money to pay for anything.
- tomcam 3y ago
  Dopey me, should’ve caught that
  - choppaface 3y ago
    But that’s part of the point: ChatGPT is so hyped it bends perception. The OP article after all quoted a Google employee who has nothing to do with ChatGPT.
- svnt 3y ago
  I mean they are buying degrees for six figures. If it meant good grades without doing the work and it became socially acceptable it is ~150 million global tertiary students times 10 months of the year times whatever that is worth on a monthly basis. Maybe only $150B ARR right now at $100/mo (textbooks to read cost more than this, but you don’t need them anymore), so not $1T on students but still massive, and if you capture them in pre/early career it is easily $1T in ARR once your queue deepens.
  - choppaface 3y ago
    And Coursera opened at a $6b market cap. So how do we value ChatGPT then? Should it be as valuable as Coursera, Udacity etc put together? Should it be that PLUS Harvard Deloitte and ServiceNow? Or since they have no major moat should it be Zero? It’s hype of this scale that can rationalize unprecedented figures. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/31/coursera-ipo-cour-begins-trading-on-the-nyse.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/03/31/coursera-ipo-cour-begins...
    - svnt 3y ago
      I should make explicit that I think it is impossible to achieve in practice because higher education will collapse completely before they achieve any fraction of market saturation with the numbers I wrote. Coursera is a discount retailer of tertiary education so I don’t see any relevant connection. ChatGPT/OpenAI specifically is probably already overvalued unless they have some first-mover advantage that I can’t see. Someone else has said it many times over but I agree that LLMs will disappear into the technology stack — a rising tide that lifts many market caps.