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The used vehicle market is robust. Those currently without access to adequate EV infrastructure can buy secondhand in the meantime.

thatguy0900 3y ago
Covid, a temporary vehicle disruption, caused used vehicles to appreciate in value instead of depreciate. The market is not very robust at all, unless you think paying above sticker price for a used car is something people can do. Keep in mind the people who would need to buy these are not the landlords who can install the infrastructure.
- greyface- 3y ago
  This wasn't unique to used vehicles -- new vehicle prices also spiked during the same time frame.
  - delfinom 3y ago
    At roughly the same rate. The problem is far more people were hurt by used car prices than those of us fortunately well off enough to buy new cars.
Rebelgecko 3y ago
Why would car companies leave money on the table like that by shutting out the majority of their customers? Seems like an awful business decision.
quantified 3y ago
The used market will explode in price. It'll be a long time before infrastructure gets where it needs to go. If I'm an automaker, I'm going to root for all of my competitors to drop internal combustion immediately and have it all to myself.
- hengheng 3y ago
  Even in that setting there's no need for ICE R&D. Just leave the last production line running to eternity. Meanwhile the rest of the company is free to do the switch.
  - htag 3y ago
    There are probably a half dozen platforms that we could declare 'good enough' and stop all major R&D in. Maybe some changes to the interior/self driving systems as those are being researched for EVs anyway. Maybe some minor tweaks to the internals as issues are identified at scale. The design and production is good today, and it wouldn't be a major loss if they represent the height of consumer ICE while EVs take over. A large reason why car manufactures update model lines is to comply with updating emissions, efficiency, and safety regulations. This is the environmental condition that forces major model refreshes.
- Robotbeat 3y ago
  You’re not going to believe me, but: you can literally just charge an electric car with a 120V outlet. Generation capacity is also not a problem. The US used to double electricity generation every decade for like three or four decades in a row in the middle of the 20th century. A single doubling would be more than enough to power all electric cars, and there is no way we are going to switch all of them over to electric immediately. It would take 10 years from today if literally not a single new gasoline vehicle was sold in the US and EVs magically boosted production today to compensate. Oh even incredibly optimistically, you’re talking about two decades to transition which is much more time than needed to produce enough electricity. This is not at all the showstopper that folks on the internet claim it is with even a cursory look at historical data. In fact, electric companies need the additional demand to help justify and pay for building out new clean electricity production. The extra electric demand is essential for preventing a cost spiral as we transition to clean electricity. But again, that is sort of the opposite of what every commentator on the Internet says.
  - Rebelgecko 3y ago
    > You’re not going to believe me, but: you can literally just charge an electric car with a 120V outlet. This is probably not viable for the majority of people. The median commute in the USA is 41 miles round trip. Depending on city/highway miles and driving style, you're looking at 10-14kWh that you need to replace. On a 120v outlet you're looking at 1kW-1.5kW depending on EVSE and your house's wiring, so the window is going to be something like 7-14 hours of plug-in time just to offset your commute. Run some errands, go out for dinner with friends for a few hours, and the battery situation quickly gets dire for the average person (keep in mind that 50% of people have even longer commutes than that!) (edit: 120v charging is also fairly inefficient, so your 1kw charger may only deliver 800w. I didn't incorporate this in my #s) A lot of people with shorter distance commutes are also going to be in urban areas, where condos/apartments are more common and you can't just plug into a random 120v outlet safely/legally (some municipalities have legalized running extension cords across the sidewalk but I don't think this is scalable- imagine an apartment building with 100 extension cords running from the street into people's windows). I think we're a long way from EVs being usable for everyone (although I think EVs are also viable for a lot more situations than people expect- it's just dependent on factors like proximity to L2/L3 charging, whether or not you can charge at work, etc)
veggieburrito 3y ago
I agree the used vehicle market is robust but the rest of your comment communicates extreme negativity. Will leave it at that.
- greyface- 3y ago
  Not my intention at all, and to be honest, I still don't see it. It's likely I'm not recognizing the full connotations of my phrasing (some of which was borrowed from the comment I was replying to). I've edited the comment to try to use more neutral phrasing.

thatguy0900 3y ago

Covid, a temporary vehicle disruption, caused used vehicles to appreciate in value instead of depreciate. The market is not very robust at all, unless you think paying above sticker price for a used car is something people can do. Keep in mind the people who would need to buy these are not the landlords who can install the infrastructure.

greyface- 3y ago
This wasn't unique to used vehicles -- new vehicle prices also spiked during the same time frame.
- delfinom 3y ago
  At roughly the same rate. The problem is far more people were hurt by used car prices than those of us fortunately well off enough to buy new cars.

Rebelgecko 3y ago

Why would car companies leave money on the table like that by shutting out the majority of their customers? Seems like an awful business decision.

quantified 3y ago

The used market will explode in price. It'll be a long time before infrastructure gets where it needs to go. If I'm an automaker, I'm going to root for all of my competitors to drop internal combustion immediately and have it all to myself.

hengheng 3y ago
Even in that setting there's no need for ICE R&D. Just leave the last production line running to eternity. Meanwhile the rest of the company is free to do the switch.
- htag 3y ago
  There are probably a half dozen platforms that we could declare 'good enough' and stop all major R&D in. Maybe some changes to the interior/self driving systems as those are being researched for EVs anyway. Maybe some minor tweaks to the internals as issues are identified at scale. The design and production is good today, and it wouldn't be a major loss if they represent the height of consumer ICE while EVs take over. A large reason why car manufactures update model lines is to comply with updating emissions, efficiency, and safety regulations. This is the environmental condition that forces major model refreshes.
Robotbeat 3y ago
You’re not going to believe me, but: you can literally just charge an electric car with a 120V outlet. Generation capacity is also not a problem. The US used to double electricity generation every decade for like three or four decades in a row in the middle of the 20th century. A single doubling would be more than enough to power all electric cars, and there is no way we are going to switch all of them over to electric immediately. It would take 10 years from today if literally not a single new gasoline vehicle was sold in the US and EVs magically boosted production today to compensate. Oh even incredibly optimistically, you’re talking about two decades to transition which is much more time than needed to produce enough electricity. This is not at all the showstopper that folks on the internet claim it is with even a cursory look at historical data. In fact, electric companies need the additional demand to help justify and pay for building out new clean electricity production. The extra electric demand is essential for preventing a cost spiral as we transition to clean electricity. But again, that is sort of the opposite of what every commentator on the Internet says.
- Rebelgecko 3y ago
  > You’re not going to believe me, but: you can literally just charge an electric car with a 120V outlet. This is probably not viable for the majority of people. The median commute in the USA is 41 miles round trip. Depending on city/highway miles and driving style, you're looking at 10-14kWh that you need to replace. On a 120v outlet you're looking at 1kW-1.5kW depending on EVSE and your house's wiring, so the window is going to be something like 7-14 hours of plug-in time just to offset your commute. Run some errands, go out for dinner with friends for a few hours, and the battery situation quickly gets dire for the average person (keep in mind that 50% of people have even longer commutes than that!) (edit: 120v charging is also fairly inefficient, so your 1kw charger may only deliver 800w. I didn't incorporate this in my #s) A lot of people with shorter distance commutes are also going to be in urban areas, where condos/apartments are more common and you can't just plug into a random 120v outlet safely/legally (some municipalities have legalized running extension cords across the sidewalk but I don't think this is scalable- imagine an apartment building with 100 extension cords running from the street into people's windows). I think we're a long way from EVs being usable for everyone (although I think EVs are also viable for a lot more situations than people expect- it's just dependent on factors like proximity to L2/L3 charging, whether or not you can charge at work, etc)

veggieburrito 3y ago

I agree the used vehicle market is robust but the rest of your comment communicates extreme negativity. Will leave it at that.

greyface- 3y ago
Not my intention at all, and to be honest, I still don't see it. It's likely I'm not recognizing the full connotations of my phrasing (some of which was borrowed from the comment I was replying to). I've edited the comment to try to use more neutral phrasing.