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Carmakers don’t need ‘EV divisions,’ the whole company should go electric now
- Incipient 3y agoI personally think electrified vehicles are the way to go. They're quieter, accelerate faster, require a lot less maintenance and don't smell as bad. However, I'm not convinced lithium batteries are the answer. It's a fairly limited material, recycling is super difficult. With higher volumes it doesn't seem prices are shifting much. And that's all without the charging problem. Hydrogen may solve a lot of problems? But it has its own set. Going entirely in on lithium EVs today feels a bit premature.
- Shawnj2 3y agoHonestly we need more EV’s with worse battery tech. We have alternatives to lithium ion like LIFEPO4 and we should make more cars that use them and are cheaper as a result
- Incipient 3y agoIt's still lithium, and it's still pretty awful to recycle.
- nateb2022 3y ago> Going entirely in on lithium EVs today feels a bit premature. Exactly. It's like when they phased out paper bags claiming that plastic could be reused and it was better for the environment to spare the trees, and then only later it was realized that plastic bags became a major pollution source and the decision was made to slowly try to roll out paper bags again.
- olliej 3y agoI love the idea of "EV everywhere", but failing to acknowledge that vast swathes of the world do not have electric grids capable of supporting "all new cars are EV", or in some cases any grid at all, seems questionable.
- greyface- 3y agoThe used vehicle market is robust. Those currently without access to adequate EV infrastructure can buy secondhand in the meantime.
- thatguy0900 3y agoCovid, a temporary vehicle disruption, caused used vehicles to appreciate in value instead of depreciate. The market is not very robust at all, unless you think paying above sticker price for a used car is something people can do. Keep in mind the people who would need to buy these are not the landlords who can install the infrastructure.
- Rebelgecko 3y agoWhy would car companies leave money on the table like that by shutting out the majority of their customers? Seems like an awful business decision.
- quantified 3y agoThe used market will explode in price. It'll be a long time before infrastructure gets where it needs to go. If I'm an automaker, I'm going to root for all of my competitors to drop internal combustion immediately and have it all to myself.
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- lesuorac 3y agoI think the idea of creating a division and hoping it grows large enough to replace other divisions is rather intentional within companies. Rather than firing somebody you just let them be re-org'd down to nothing.
- wmf 3y agoExcept for the part where the ICE division internally sabotages the EV division.
- unregistereddev 3y agoDo you have evidence this situation is common? No claim of inter-division sabotage is mentioned in the linked article and I have not heard similar claims. I don't doubt that sabotage happens inside dysfunctional organizations. There are plenty of stories of internal sabotage. However, I don't know of any evidence that this is either a widespread occurrence between ICE and EV divisions or that this is a problem inside specific automakers.
- wmf 3y agoIt's just a prediction.
- idiotsecant 3y agoThe unfortunate reality is that EVs are still quite expensive for some applications and it's pretty critical that the world is able to move things and people around for the system to function. There are plenty of people that need the inexpensive transport that ICEs provide. We all know that there are externalities that cost doesn't account for, but until they are accounted for the choice between an EV and an ICE is not really a choice at all for billions of people.
- Qwertious 3y agoIf we cared about inexpensive transport, then we'd build out more trains and public transport. Most people use cars because the public transport in their city is somewhere between shitty and nonexistent.
- tourmalinetaco 3y agoDepending on the location, such as the US, most people use cars because they don’t live in cities at all.
- idiotsecant 3y agoThis is true in high-density to medium-high density situations, like most of the east coast. I challenge you to describe such a system that works for eastern Montana. The US is very large, and a lot of important things are done in places where the density is insufficient to support a greyhound route, let alone high speed rail. Not everyone lives in a city, and if they did the nation would cease to function.
- cjdoc29 3y agoI'm oversimplifying here, but carmakers do need EV divisions to bridge the gap. They need to be independent but be supported by the top of the organization. There's way too many stakeholders involved in the ICE orgs that could hamper progress here. Another thing - these companies need to commit to building actual EV-first platforms instead of doing the weird platforms that supports both ICE and BEV which come with tradeoffs in packaging and driving dynamics.
- andrewtbham 3y agoIn the near term (1-3 years), no role in a traditional oems has incentives to make evs. dealers make money from maintenance. evs have less maintence. car salesmen are trained to negotiate, not educate consumers about evs. factory workers/unions: evs require less factory workers. many engineers have the wrong skills for evs. executives also have the wrong skills. they are trained to negotiate with suppliers and focus on core competency. core competency changes from manufacturing engines to battery and electric drive train. innovation may require insourcing if suppliers fail. investors want dividends and not to speculate on evs. imho, it makes more sense for startups and tech companies to make evs.
- mschild 3y agoThere's no need to speculate on the EV market. Especially in most western countries. EVs are here and people want them. VW alone had a backlog of 300.000 cars in 2022. Companies care about making a profit and even the stoic Germans that where mostly wishy-washy for a long time on their strategy, have finally started to mass-producing them. https://insideevs.com/news/584419/volkswagen-evs-sold-out-europe-us-2022/ https://insideevs.com/news/584419/volkswagen-evs-sold-out-eu...
- andrewtbham 3y agoI agree... the speculation is becoming less on the market and more on whether these companies can execute. Everyione knows it's in their long term interest to make EVs.
- TheLoafOfBread 3y agoWell that's a year old article, news are that VW is actually slashing production (and Tesla is slashing prices) because they can't sell them https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/customer-resistance-volkswagen-cuts-ev-production-as-it-fails-to-keep-up-with-market/ https://thedriven.io/2023/07/06/customer-resistance-volkswag...
- mschild 3y agoTrue. However, registration of new cars is up quite a bit in Germany. EVs actually outpaced Diesel in Germany. [0] A lot of those sales are from purchases from 2022 though as companies couldn't produce enough then because of chip shortage. VW, and EVs, in Germany are dropping a bit but that's not necessarily because people don't want EVs on principal. Last year was the energy crisis and some people are now stuck with contracts paying 50Cents/kWh. Inflation is still high and Germany is in a recession. Some analyst argue that car sales will have slump this year, not just EVs, because of this. Volkswagen, and the rest of the German manufacturers in particular, also have no cheap EV cars. The cheapest EV car VW has is the e-up which is a miniature city car and that starts at 30k. The gas version starts at 14k. It's no wonder, even with subsidies, that they have issues selling them. [0] https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-germany-by-month https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automoti...
- mrangle 3y agoThere aren't enough raw materials to create an all EV transportation industry across generations. EVs remains widely unpopular for valid reasons. The government should stop trying to so drastically re-engineer the industrial economy given the potential for unforseen wide ranging consequences.
- greesil 3y agoAnd yet here in California a Prius is actually cheaper to run unless you've got solar, or charge at work for free.
- tootie 3y agoLower price, not cheaper. Environmental costs are astronmical and paid by everyone for the next few centuries.
- glitchc 3y agoAnd no one cares, because California is not the world. Yes, it's a great place to live, but people in California need to stop pretending the rest of the world looks like them. Not to mention California is not problem free. EVs work great but you're running out of water. Once those desalination plants fire up, and they're coming, EVs won't be that cheap to run any longer.
- greesil 3y agoNo but other places have similar electricity costs
- glitchc 3y agoThere is no other place on the planet that has the exact same mix of electricity costs, government incentives, favourable weather and a myriad of other factors that make California an excellent place to own EVs.
- lokar 3y agoWe are not running out of water. We have drought, not shortage. Most of the water goes to agriculture, much of it not well suited to the climate. Most of the rest is for non-functional grass (won’t ever be used, just to look at). This will all fix itself sooner or later.
- georgeburdell 3y agoThis surprised me too. PG&E is now up to $.36 per kwh off-peak. A 333 mile 80kwh model 3 costs $0.09/mile to operate. A Prius with a 56 mpg fuel economy and 11.3 gallon tank can go 630 miles. At $4.50 gas that’s $0.08/mile
- bischofs 3y agoOkay, we will just ignore the 50-70% of customers who do not want an EV now - We don't want their money. Batteries are getting better every day but a lot of people: 1. Don't live in a house with a charger. 2. Don't want to drive to a DC charger and sit there once a week. 3. Can't afford a $60K SUV for their family. 4. Want lifestyle vehicles like jeeps, trucks, vans etc. that require much larger and more expensive batteries.
- Qwertious 3y ago>1. Don't live in a house with a charger. Just so we're clear: a charger can plug into a normal wall plug, so if you have a garage with a wall plug then you're set. If not, you're talking about paying <$500 (and probably less than half that) for an electricial to fix that.
- ngoldbaum 3y agoAssuming you have a garage.
- smilespray 3y agoThere are millions of people without a garage or permission to set up a charging point.
- googlryas 3y agoSure, and there are about 100,000,000 gas powered cars in the US. Even if every company stopped producing gas cars immediately, there still would be no shortage of gas cars for decades.
- thepangolino 3y ago[dead]
- tomaskafka 3y agoI live in a center of an European city, just like about 20000 nearby people. No garage, car parked at a random free place in 1 km radius. I'd love to be able to get an EV, but it's a no go. Also, there are no electric family MPVs.
- Simulacra 3y agoI think automakers should think more about composite materials and solar panels. Electric vehicles are in demand and sort of inevitable for most people, but EVs with upgradeable solar panels is the way to go. Efficiency in those panels may not be perfect, or even great, but one day they will. Then we will have truly grid-free transpiration for most people, in most places.
- 1970-01-01 3y agoA standardized solar panel idea is interesting. It would allow trickle recharge and also would help during high grid demands via V2G.
- nashashmi 3y agoWe need ICE+ hybrid divisions.
- zmgsabst 3y agoThe Four Pollutants must be eliminated! Who cares what disruption comes from arbitrarily limiting carbon, nitrogen, etc. — starvation is for the plebs, while I am a noble savior for causing a famine to solve problems a century away! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_campaign https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_campaign
- mirko22 3y agoWhere does the electric energy required to replace all cars with electrical ones comes from? We already have energy problems in EU, how would we handle massive increases for EVs?
- zaken 3y agoBurn the oil that would have gone into cars in a power plant... You can propel an EV 2-3x as far as an ICE vehicle with the same amount of oil because power plants are much more efficient than car engines.
- mirko22 3y agoSo basically we would like to cut down on using oil by… burning more oil. And how are EVs more efficient then standard cars if they have less range and don’t work as well in certain climates and can’t go where the electricity is not readily available? We are already polluting the environment by burning stuff for electricity, how does any of this help? And where to we get all the chemicals for the batteries and what do we do with them when they are useless?
- zaken 3y ago> So basically we would like to cut down on using oil by… burning more oil. For now. Until we build more renewable energy plants. Miles per ton of CO2 is better with EVs no matter how you power the EV. > And how are EVs more efficient then standard cars if they have less range and don’t work as well in certain climates and can’t go where the electricity is not readily available? EVs are less convenient, no argument there. But they're still more efficient. Even in cold climates. 90% of new vehicles sold in Norway are EVs or plug-in hybrids. > We are already polluting the environment by burning stuff for electricity, how does any of this help? Switch to renewables and then you stop burning stuff. Until then, burning oil for power is better than burning oil to propel cars. > And where to we get all the chemicals for the batteries and what do we do with them when they are useless? Tesla recycles 90% of the important metals in their batteries.
- MrRadar 3y ago
- mensetmanusman 3y agoThey will eventually, in the mean time they have to support ICE transitions over the next half century.
- 1970-01-01 3y agoThe overly simplified armchair analysis is overly simplified. EVs and ICE vehicles are apples and oranges. Separate divisions are absolutely required to have a smooth manufacturing transition.
- tibbydudeza 3y agoNot in India or Africa or any developing nation - we simply don't have the infrastructure for it.
- arka2147483647 3y agoLets imagine a scenario: You are a car manufacturer, you have to choose how you allocate resources. Most of your income comes from ICE vehicles, and only some from EV. So you give most RD resources to ICE because it makes most money, good business sense. Some years pass, and the market of EV’s grow. But you still make most of your profits from ICE, so you only grow EV resources a bit. More years pass. Now the market flips, 60% EV, 40% ICE. So: - ICE is making a loss, because there is not enough demand - EV is making a loss, because you did not invest enough, and cant keep up with competitors which went all in. -> You cant invest more to EV, because you don't have the money, and if you could, you would still be years behind. So you're toast.
- huijzer 3y agoYes. I agree completely. It’s the traditional investors dilemma or counter positioning (7 Powers book). The solution is the mantra from the previous Microsoft CEO: "Be bold and be right". You can say what you want about Ballmer, but I think he was right on this one.