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For the current crop of AI at least, the upside will almost entirely be captured by a handful of rich elites who will gain even more leverage over workers. Virt

by rurp 3y ago

For the current crop of AI at least, the upside will almost entirely be captured by a handful of rich elites who will gain even more leverage over workers. Virtually no business owner pays someone well for any reason other than they have to in order to make more money themselves. If LLMs don't flame out it will be like the dawn of offshoring except wider scale and without the upside of poor people in other countries making more money; just more wealth concentrated in the hands of ever fewer people.

thrashh 3y ago
This is technology in general though. Technology first benefits the rich and causes people to lose their jobs, but then in the next generation, people get different jobs and everyone’s life is better. Technology is a double edge sword in every way.
- haxiomic 3y ago
  Coming from genuine curiosity, what jobs don’t compete with an AI that’s designed to mimic and surpass human capability?
  - kaashif 3y ago
    It seems like it would be hard to automate being a plumber or electrician, AI isn't really being aimed at that problem. Jobs which are specifically about being a human seem like they can't be automated, like actors, waiters, athletes, sex workers. I sincerely doubt anyone would watch or care about fake AI generated sports.
    - mholm 3y ago
      It strikes me that we don't have 7 billion available jobs centered around being human
    - B1FF_PSUVM 3y ago
      > watch or care about fake AI generated sports Well, people pay for fake sports, and pay for fiction (i.e. fake stories) in movies/TV/books. Not much of a stretch that a competent AI could generate good enough content, given the sludge currently making money out there ...
  - varelse 3y ago
    [dead]
- delusional 3y ago
  You're engaging with it as though AI is actually going to revolutionize jobs. I think that's highly unlikely. What AI is likely to do is distract people from the continued accumulation of wealth and power. Reinforce the notion that it's "fair" (everyone else can be automated after all). And provide a cap to your wages (if the machine could do it with 50 MWh of power, then your salary will logically have to be lower than that, even if the machine doesn't actually exist YET).
  - thrashh 3y ago
    How does that not describe every technology? The cotton loom didn’t present itself as a means of accumulating wealth and power, but yet it did. Why would you pay a group of people that much to weave when a cotton loom can do the work of 10? Anything that makes things easier will reduce the number of jobs.
- MSFT_Edging 3y ago
  With climate change coming up fast, we won't really have time for a comfy "next generation" if we keep up our current path.
- rurp 3y ago
  I think it's too broad to classify all technology this way since their are stark differences between various tools. Smart phones improved billions of lives and displaced a relatively small number of jobs. Global shipping routes decimated hundreds of towns and cities, many of which still haven't recovered decades later, with 90% of the benefits going to 1% of the population. There are massive ranges possible on the winner and loser sides of any new technology equation. I'd argue that widespread AI will cause broad harm and very concentrated gains, which I think will be very bad for society on the whole.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
nfriedly 3y ago
> offshoring I wonder if we'll reach the point where "AI" ends up with the same negative connotation as "Made in China".
- rurp 3y ago
  If it does lead to mass layoffs I think that's almost certain. Even if I'm wrong about the upsides and they are better than expected, there will still be millions of people suddenly destitute who won't care one bit about the latest tech toys, they are just going to be depressed and angry.
- ksaj 3y ago
  I think when it comes to music, it very much has that negative connotation already. It definitely has all sorts of negative connotation when it comes to visual art. Paul McCartney has had to repeatedly point out that the new song they are producing is John Lennon's real voice, and AI was only used to separate and clean the tracks up. Even still, there are real musicians out there that will learn how to use AI to generate musical ideas that are new and fresh. They'll ironically have to be in the closet about it, lest people just assume the musician didn't do anything beyond prompting for musical output.
squirtlebonflow 3y ago
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by rurp 3y ago

thrashh 3y ago

This is technology in general though. Technology first benefits the rich and causes people to lose their jobs, but then in the next generation, people get different jobs and everyone’s life is better. Technology is a double edge sword in every way.

haxiomic 3y ago
Coming from genuine curiosity, what jobs don’t compete with an AI that’s designed to mimic and surpass human capability?
- kaashif 3y ago
  It seems like it would be hard to automate being a plumber or electrician, AI isn't really being aimed at that problem. Jobs which are specifically about being a human seem like they can't be automated, like actors, waiters, athletes, sex workers. I sincerely doubt anyone would watch or care about fake AI generated sports.
  - mholm 3y ago
    It strikes me that we don't have 7 billion available jobs centered around being human
  - B1FF_PSUVM 3y ago
    > watch or care about fake AI generated sports Well, people pay for fake sports, and pay for fiction (i.e. fake stories) in movies/TV/books. Not much of a stretch that a competent AI could generate good enough content, given the sludge currently making money out there ...
- varelse 3y ago
  [dead]
delusional 3y ago
You're engaging with it as though AI is actually going to revolutionize jobs. I think that's highly unlikely. What AI is likely to do is distract people from the continued accumulation of wealth and power. Reinforce the notion that it's "fair" (everyone else can be automated after all). And provide a cap to your wages (if the machine could do it with 50 MWh of power, then your salary will logically have to be lower than that, even if the machine doesn't actually exist YET).
- thrashh 3y ago
  How does that not describe every technology? The cotton loom didn’t present itself as a means of accumulating wealth and power, but yet it did. Why would you pay a group of people that much to weave when a cotton loom can do the work of 10? Anything that makes things easier will reduce the number of jobs.
MSFT_Edging 3y ago
With climate change coming up fast, we won't really have time for a comfy "next generation" if we keep up our current path.
rurp 3y ago
I think it's too broad to classify all technology this way since their are stark differences between various tools. Smart phones improved billions of lives and displaced a relatively small number of jobs. Global shipping routes decimated hundreds of towns and cities, many of which still haven't recovered decades later, with 90% of the benefits going to 1% of the population. There are massive ranges possible on the winner and loser sides of any new technology equation. I'd argue that widespread AI will cause broad harm and very concentrated gains, which I think will be very bad for society on the whole.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

nfriedly 3y ago

> offshoring I wonder if we'll reach the point where "AI" ends up with the same negative connotation as "Made in China".

rurp 3y ago
If it does lead to mass layoffs I think that's almost certain. Even if I'm wrong about the upsides and they are better than expected, there will still be millions of people suddenly destitute who won't care one bit about the latest tech toys, they are just going to be depressed and angry.
ksaj 3y ago
I think when it comes to music, it very much has that negative connotation already. It definitely has all sorts of negative connotation when it comes to visual art. Paul McCartney has had to repeatedly point out that the new song they are producing is John Lennon's real voice, and AI was only used to separate and clean the tracks up. Even still, there are real musicians out there that will learn how to use AI to generate musical ideas that are new and fresh. They'll ironically have to be in the closet about it, lest people just assume the musician didn't do anything beyond prompting for musical output.

squirtlebonflow 3y ago

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