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It seems to me that Nvidia has largely abandoned the consumer market in order to chase the seemingly-bottomless demand for AI hype. While AMD is more than happy

by sh34r 3y ago

It seems to me that Nvidia has largely abandoned the consumer market in order to chase the seemingly-bottomless demand for AI hype. While AMD is more than happy to stay in their lane, continue making record profits on their same market, and not waste billions trying to catch up on 10 years of CUDA development. By the time they have anything remotely comparable, the AI grift will be over just like crypto. Tech grifts only have a 1-3 year cycle these days.

jtriangle 3y ago
Best kept secret in the AI boom really is that you don't need a ton of local horsepower to run a model and do something useful, you only really need the grunt once, to do the training in a reasonable amount of time. Combine that with the stuff that Mythic was working on in texas (before they ran out of burn) and we're looking at a world where, most people won't have a need for heavy GPU compute.
- sh34r 3y ago
  It’s gonna take another decade before the suits at F500 companies figure that out, though. You wouldn’t believe the wasteful nonsense that’s in production already…
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- narism 3y ago
  Mythic is supposedly back, they raised more money in March 2023.
  - jtriangle 3y ago
    Oh hell yeah, super happy for them. They've got the right idea for edgeAI stuff, I hope they can survive, or, at least sell their IP to someone big and buy a few acres to DGAF on.
TechnicolorByte 3y ago
Really surprised to see such low effort commentary akin to Reddit/twitter on here. In what way has Nvidia abandoned the consumer market? They have something like 80%+ market share on discrete gaming GPUs and still rake in billions a year from GeForce, which at their revenue is a sizable fraction. And what makes you say that current AI hype is a grift? Do you truly think that the work with transformers is just a fad? I swear people on this site were saying the same thing about AI in general 3+ years ago before transformers blew up the scene.
- ccheney 3y ago
  It's kinda strange seeing some people link advancements in transformer models with stuff like cryptos and NFTs. You've gotta ask, where are these thoughts coming from? Plus, the ongoing use of the 'stochastic parrot' argument is starting to feel a bit repetitive in these discussions.
  - BoorishBears 3y ago
    The irony is that 99% of them haven't actually read the paper the term originated from. One of it's only recurring warnings was the danger of underestimating what a "stochastic parrot" can do in practical terms.
- photonerd 3y ago
  > I swear people on this site were saying the same thing about AI in general 3+ years ago before transformers blew up the scene. They kind of weren’t super wrong. What people usually mean by this is that the product doesn’t match the hype. It very much didn’t. Even now we’re only starting to catch up to the breathless promises from back then. Barely. The main difference now is that the barrier to entry is lower so it’s starting to get some interesting uses cases come out
- sh34r 3y ago
  Like crypto, fraud is the only use case that will pan out for transformers in the end. We’ve been here before. ChatGPT isn’t functionally all that different from ELIZA from the 1960s. It’s tricking people just the same, into thinking it’s more than it really is. I’m also eagerly awaiting the discovery process that will show that all of this generative AI was built on mass copyright infringement. OpenAI certainly ingested the entire z-library. They’d have to be stupid not to, right? If they didn’t use it, less ethical competitors would have beaten them to market. Oh, I’m sure they used some sketchy subcontractor to do it. We’ve all seen a variation of this in our careers, where a dataset was acquired under questionable circumstances, and you don’t ask and don’t tell if you want to keep your job, right? And that’s just speculation. There’s hard evidence for the Getty Images lawsuit.
peddling-brink 3y ago
What is the ai grift? It’s doing real things. Some of those things are shitty, but that doesn’t make it a grift.
- ericd 3y ago
  I'm guessing it's a gut feeling based on seeing a lot of the same types of influencers who used to endlessly hype up crypto now making similar noise about AI. But I agree that that assessment is unfair to AI, even if the hype is ahead of current abilities.
lexandstuff 3y ago
I hate to break it to you, but crypto has been "over" many times, only to come roaring back. It's cyclical, based on the price of Bitcoin. I expect people will go nuts about it again in a few years before temporarily abandoning it. At least that was the case in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020-21. I don't see any value in crypto projects personally, but if you think it's going away forever, expect disappointment.
- sh34r 3y ago
  As long as sanctions and ransomware exist, I don’t think it will ever fully die. But I don’t think the price will ever hit an ATH again without SBF, tether, and their co-conspirators pumping the price by printing stablecoins out of thin air. Pretty much everyone has heard of crypto by now. The Ponzi scheme is out of marks. There will be no next time. Sell now if you’re still holding the bag.
  - iraqmtpizza 3y ago
    crypto could stand still and inflation would bring it to an all-time high in a few years at this rate
    - sh34r 3y ago
      Inflation hurts speculative assets the most. In the last 2 years, BTC is down 50% despite inflation being at the highest level seen since the 1980s.

by sh34r 3y ago

jtriangle 3y ago

Best kept secret in the AI boom really is that you don't need a ton of local horsepower to run a model and do something useful, you only really need the grunt once, to do the training in a reasonable amount of time. Combine that with the stuff that Mythic was working on in texas (before they ran out of burn) and we're looking at a world where, most people won't have a need for heavy GPU compute.

sh34r 3y ago
It’s gonna take another decade before the suits at F500 companies figure that out, though. You wouldn’t believe the wasteful nonsense that’s in production already…
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
narism 3y ago
Mythic is supposedly back, they raised more money in March 2023.
- jtriangle 3y ago
  Oh hell yeah, super happy for them. They've got the right idea for edgeAI stuff, I hope they can survive, or, at least sell their IP to someone big and buy a few acres to DGAF on.

TechnicolorByte 3y ago

Really surprised to see such low effort commentary akin to Reddit/twitter on here. In what way has Nvidia abandoned the consumer market? They have something like 80%+ market share on discrete gaming GPUs and still rake in billions a year from GeForce, which at their revenue is a sizable fraction. And what makes you say that current AI hype is a grift? Do you truly think that the work with transformers is just a fad? I swear people on this site were saying the same thing about AI in general 3+ years ago before transformers blew up the scene.

ccheney 3y ago
It's kinda strange seeing some people link advancements in transformer models with stuff like cryptos and NFTs. You've gotta ask, where are these thoughts coming from? Plus, the ongoing use of the 'stochastic parrot' argument is starting to feel a bit repetitive in these discussions.
- BoorishBears 3y ago
  The irony is that 99% of them haven't actually read the paper the term originated from. One of it's only recurring warnings was the danger of underestimating what a "stochastic parrot" can do in practical terms.
photonerd 3y ago
> I swear people on this site were saying the same thing about AI in general 3+ years ago before transformers blew up the scene. They kind of weren’t super wrong. What people usually mean by this is that the product doesn’t match the hype. It very much didn’t. Even now we’re only starting to catch up to the breathless promises from back then. Barely. The main difference now is that the barrier to entry is lower so it’s starting to get some interesting uses cases come out
sh34r 3y ago
Like crypto, fraud is the only use case that will pan out for transformers in the end. We’ve been here before. ChatGPT isn’t functionally all that different from ELIZA from the 1960s. It’s tricking people just the same, into thinking it’s more than it really is. I’m also eagerly awaiting the discovery process that will show that all of this generative AI was built on mass copyright infringement. OpenAI certainly ingested the entire z-library. They’d have to be stupid not to, right? If they didn’t use it, less ethical competitors would have beaten them to market. Oh, I’m sure they used some sketchy subcontractor to do it. We’ve all seen a variation of this in our careers, where a dataset was acquired under questionable circumstances, and you don’t ask and don’t tell if you want to keep your job, right? And that’s just speculation. There’s hard evidence for the Getty Images lawsuit.

peddling-brink 3y ago

What is the ai grift? It’s doing real things. Some of those things are shitty, but that doesn’t make it a grift.

ericd 3y ago
I'm guessing it's a gut feeling based on seeing a lot of the same types of influencers who used to endlessly hype up crypto now making similar noise about AI. But I agree that that assessment is unfair to AI, even if the hype is ahead of current abilities.

lexandstuff 3y ago

I hate to break it to you, but crypto has been "over" many times, only to come roaring back. It's cyclical, based on the price of Bitcoin. I expect people will go nuts about it again in a few years before temporarily abandoning it. At least that was the case in 2011, 2013, 2017 and 2020-21. I don't see any value in crypto projects personally, but if you think it's going away forever, expect disappointment.

sh34r 3y ago
As long as sanctions and ransomware exist, I don’t think it will ever fully die. But I don’t think the price will ever hit an ATH again without SBF, tether, and their co-conspirators pumping the price by printing stablecoins out of thin air. Pretty much everyone has heard of crypto by now. The Ponzi scheme is out of marks. There will be no next time. Sell now if you’re still holding the bag.
- iraqmtpizza 3y ago
  crypto could stand still and inflation would bring it to an all-time high in a few years at this rate
  - sh34r 3y ago
    Inflation hurts speculative assets the most. In the last 2 years, BTC is down 50% despite inflation being at the highest level seen since the 1980s.