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I’ve been burned by this often enough that the more investment a new product takes on the less likely I am to use it. Take notion, 300 million in funding at a 1
by Joeri 3y ago
I’ve been burned by this often enough that the more investment a new product takes on the less likely I am to use it. Take notion, 300 million in funding at a 10 billion valuation. At an average $10 a month they need a billion user months to make back that valuation. Let’s say they have a time horizon of ten years to do that, that means they need at least 10 million paying users, but that is ignoring operating costs, acquisition costs. So in reality it is more like 20 million users paying for a decade. How do you get that many paying users? Lure them with a “free forever” product then force them to pay once their data is locked into the product. That’s how evernote got my wife to pay up, as all her recipes are in there. That’s why I will never use notion, no matter how nice it is.
- zeroonetwothree 3y agoI don’t think it’s realistic to expect to get useful stuff for free. However you’re right that having all your data locked in with a provider that can arbitrarily raise prices is unappealing. Still, many people do find Notion valuable so they probably think it’s worth the risk. In the end it’s still possible to migrate elsewhere even if it’s annoying. Your calculation is roughly correct but a p/e of 10 is kinda low so probably you can halve the numbers at least.