3 ms·

This is outright false[0] - 27% of Ontario's power is gas, with a possibility of 59% nuclear[1] but the nuclear infrastructure in Ontario is aging and shutdowns

by xtqv 3y ago

This is outright false[0] - 27% of Ontario's power is gas, with a possibility of 59% nuclear[1] but the nuclear infrastructure in Ontario is aging and shutdowns/refurbishments is pushing Ontario towards >50% gas (and imported coal/gas) as of this summer[2]. Further, per IESO[3] Ontario is facing a 2GW shortfall this August. Maybe if not mismanaged, Ontario could be an exporter - but the joke is that's not the case anymore [0]https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply... [1]https://www.ieso.ca/en/Corporate-IESO/Media/News-Releases/2016/01/Ont-Moving-Forward-with-Nuclear-Refurb-at-Darl-and-Pursuing-Continued-Ops-at-Pickering-to-2024 https://www.ieso.ca/en/Corporate-IESO/Media/News-Releases/20... [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON [3] (PDF) https://www.ieso.ca/-/media/Files/IESO/Document-Library/planning-forecasts/reliability-outlook/ReliabilityOutlook2023Mar.ashx https://www.ieso.ca/-/media/Files/IESO/Document-Library/plan...

0x486566e7279 3y ago
It’s not outright false you are looking at capacity, I am talking about actual output. The last year natural gas was 10% total output, the year before was 8%. Now I agree this has not been managed well, and we are in a worse place than we were on 2019. I didn’t realize how much worse off in the last couple years it got, but we are not in a power crunch, there will be no rolling blackouts.
- xtqv 3y ago
  Interested to know the source for that 10% number. Using this tool I'm seeing 12 months consumption at 17.4% gas. Last 30 days 28.47% (61% capacity). Gas capacity has been phased out as base load. https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON IESO confirms this https://www.ieso.ca/power-data https://www.ieso.ca/power-data (Supply tab) Ontario will be dependent on 2000MW (~10% of demand) which has to come from areas also facing shortfalls. NERC puts the majority of the US as well as Ontario in "elevated risk in above-normal conditions". https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power-outages/ https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power... Rolling blackouts could happen in “extreme but plausible scenarios” like a "once in a decade" heat wave (NERC). We're facing climate change temps, population growth strained infrastructure and phased out gas plants. I hope it doesn't happen, but the possibility is worth having a personal plan.
  - 0x486566e7279 3y ago
    https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply... Look at output.

by xtqv 3y ago

0x486566e7279 3y ago

It’s not outright false you are looking at capacity, I am talking about actual output. The last year natural gas was 10% total output, the year before was 8%. Now I agree this has not been managed well, and we are in a worse place than we were on 2019. I didn’t realize how much worse off in the last couple years it got, but we are not in a power crunch, there will be no rolling blackouts.

xtqv 3y ago
Interested to know the source for that 10% number. Using this tool I'm seeing 12 months consumption at 17.4% gas. Last 30 days 28.47% (61% capacity). Gas capacity has been phased out as base load. https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON https://app.electricitymaps.com/zone/CA-ON IESO confirms this https://www.ieso.ca/power-data https://www.ieso.ca/power-data (Supply tab) Ontario will be dependent on 2000MW (~10% of demand) which has to come from areas also facing shortfalls. NERC puts the majority of the US as well as Ontario in "elevated risk in above-normal conditions". https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power-outages/ https://globalnews.ca/news/9752079/ontario-risk-summer-power... Rolling blackouts could happen in “extreme but plausible scenarios” like a "once in a decade" heat wave (NERC). We're facing climate change temps, population growth strained infrastructure and phased out gas plants. I hope it doesn't happen, but the possibility is worth having a personal plan.
- 0x486566e7279 3y ago
  https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply-Mix-and-Generation https://www.ieso.ca/en/Learn/Ontario-Electricity-Grid/Supply... Look at output.