It needs time to tell - not a lot of time, but more than a few hours. Lots of people sign up to park an account on new services and Threads is going to be one o

It needs time to tell - not a lot of time, but more than a few hours. Lots of people sign up to park an account on new services and Threads is going to be one of the most heavily-parked of them all. It's DAU/MAU numbers and retention that make the bigger difference. ActivityPub has had pretty good retention since the early era of Mastodon - not gangbusters growth, but enough for people to feel comfortable with the ecosystem as it stands and uninfluenced by a large instance. AP's "core experience" is more like a combo of Usenet, web forums and email than XMPP or Twitter - it can be aggregated and surveilled, but the social graph isn't solely in messaging and follower connections, it's in space-making and exclusivity. While individual users can be coerced into centralizing, spaces are a much harder nut and are why little PhpBB forums persist even now. You can have all the users but not the spaces, and if you don't play nice with the spaces, adios.