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Ariane Next’s design goals seem to be mostly “be Falcon 9”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next No-one’s trying

Ariane Next’s design goals seem to be mostly “be Falcon 9”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_Next No-one’s trying to build a Starship at this point apart from SpaceX (leaving aside a couple of less credible Chinese attempts).

martin8412 3y ago
No, the others gave up on that can of worms in the 60s.
- wongarsu 3y ago
  Which would be quite foolish. Controlling a large number of engines was made a lot easier by about 60 years of improvements in microcontroller and sensor technology.
- pfdietz 3y ago
  I remember a NASA-connected SF author explaining at a Worldcon in Chicago that Falcon 9 wasn't going to be reliable because it had too many first stage engines. Oops.
cubefox 3y ago
The Chinese Long March 9 plans, which are close to Starship, seem quite credible to me.
- nordsieck 3y ago
  > The Chinese Long March 9 plans, which are close to Starship, seem quite credible to me. The plans for the Long March 9 change every year or so. The last time they published a design, it was a Saturn V semi-clone (with many more 1st stage engines). I'll take the Long March 9 seriously when they start showing off actual hardware.
  - sidewndr46 3y ago
    And of all the designs, it is the one with the least price transparency.
DylanSp 3y ago
New Glenn has a potential path to compete with Starship eventually, with BO's work on making a reusable version of its second stage. It's years away at best, but it's arguably more than anyone else is doing.
- wongarsu 3y ago
  On paper New Glenn looks interesting. But Blue Origin is one year older than SpaceX but with slightly fewer success stories to talk about. So far they managed 30 suborbital launches (counting all test flights); in the same time SpaceX did 240 orbital launches. New Glenn has lots of potential, but it's also really hard to get excited about.
  - DylanSp 3y ago
    Entirely fair. The main reason I bring up them as even having realistic potential is that they've built a few BE-4 engines that're ready to go on Vulcan, and I think they've been spotted building hardware for New Glenn's first stage. They've definitely got a lot of work to do, though.
panick21_ 3y ago
Ariane Next is not a real thing yet. Its just some concepts that some of the European space agencies are playing around with. To actually build a next generation Ariane rocket they will need a huge amount of political buy-in from the ESA memeber states. And they will not get that anytime soon. The barley got the Ariane 6 over the finish line. It will be many, many years before they even seriously start an actual design process for Ariane Next.

martin8412 3y ago

No, the others gave up on that can of worms in the 60s.

wongarsu 3y ago
Which would be quite foolish. Controlling a large number of engines was made a lot easier by about 60 years of improvements in microcontroller and sensor technology.
pfdietz 3y ago
I remember a NASA-connected SF author explaining at a Worldcon in Chicago that Falcon 9 wasn't going to be reliable because it had too many first stage engines. Oops.

cubefox 3y ago

The Chinese Long March 9 plans, which are close to Starship, seem quite credible to me.

nordsieck 3y ago
> The Chinese Long March 9 plans, which are close to Starship, seem quite credible to me. The plans for the Long March 9 change every year or so. The last time they published a design, it was a Saturn V semi-clone (with many more 1st stage engines). I'll take the Long March 9 seriously when they start showing off actual hardware.
- sidewndr46 3y ago
  And of all the designs, it is the one with the least price transparency.

DylanSp 3y ago

New Glenn has a potential path to compete with Starship eventually, with BO's work on making a reusable version of its second stage. It's years away at best, but it's arguably more than anyone else is doing.

wongarsu 3y ago
On paper New Glenn looks interesting. But Blue Origin is one year older than SpaceX but with slightly fewer success stories to talk about. So far they managed 30 suborbital launches (counting all test flights); in the same time SpaceX did 240 orbital launches. New Glenn has lots of potential, but it's also really hard to get excited about.
- DylanSp 3y ago
  Entirely fair. The main reason I bring up them as even having realistic potential is that they've built a few BE-4 engines that're ready to go on Vulcan, and I think they've been spotted building hardware for New Glenn's first stage. They've definitely got a lot of work to do, though.

panick21_ 3y ago

Ariane Next is not a real thing yet. Its just some concepts that some of the European space agencies are playing around with. To actually build a next generation Ariane rocket they will need a huge amount of political buy-in from the ESA memeber states. And they will not get that anytime soon. The barley got the Ariane 6 over the finish line. It will be many, many years before they even seriously start an actual design process for Ariane Next.