5 ms·

I think renewable energy disruption is happening faster than many can fathom. A few breakthroughs in storage technology and things might actually turn into opti

I think renewable energy disruption is happening faster than many can fathom. A few breakthroughs in storage technology and things might actually turn into optimism from Climate fears in 1 or 2 decades. Hopefully entrenched interests do not let free market disrupt them this time.

anonzzzies 3y ago
If everyone plays ball. That we will need to see. China, USA, India also need to go in hard.
- senttoschool 3y ago
  Doesn't China already lead in many areas of renewables including wind and solar deployments and manufacturing? https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-renewable-energy-supply-lead-with-wind-power-push-2023-03-01 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-ren... China also supplies the bulk of Germany's solar panel demands.
- _ph_ 3y ago
  Actually China seems to be ahead of their own plans and Chinese emissions might peak in 24 and decline from that point on as they are rolling out renewables at an astonishing pace.
detourdog 3y ago
I believe some of the acceleration maybe due to local generation decreasing distribution losses and the summer PV generation decreasing peaker plant ramp ups. I think those are subtitles are hard to judge and most likely downplayed by incumbents.
mutlimind 3y ago
In the past 2 decades Germany has blown hundreds of billions of dollars into renewable energy. Now we have the highest electricity price in the world. It is all socialism. Zero market :-(
- ragebol 3y ago
  The price is determined by the most expensive generator. Without renewables, prices would have been even higher
- Aachen 3y ago
  > Now we have the highest electricity price in the world. Imagine what that price would have been if the renewables hadn't been there and they bought only "green" gas plants instead. Or "green" nuclear, but we don't talk about that in Germany anymore
  - looping__lui 3y ago
    Oh, but you are aware that we need to DOUBLE our installed capacity for gas by 2030 in order to be able to manage our electricity grid towards renewables, right? Page 25: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Fraunhofer-ISE-Studie-Wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-Energiesystem.pdf https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/p...
    - iSnow 3y ago
      Nowhere on p 25 can I find this. Maybe you mean p 27, and I don't get what argument you are trying to make. Yes, there would be more gas capacity, but for green gas.
      - looping__lui 3y ago
        “Green gas”. You mean Biogas? That isn’t really an option: https://www.capital.de/amp/wirtschaft-politik/kann-biogas-russisches-gas-ersetzen--32667834.html https://www.capital.de/amp/wirtschaft-politik/kann-biogas-ru...
        adrianN 3y ago
        They likely mean hydrogen.
looping__lui 3y ago
Bit not in the way people would anticipate. According to the modeling of the Fraunhofer (base assumption), we will need to double our capacity from gas (yay), double renewables to eventually achieve twice the carbon footprint of France by 2030. The base load is so high in Germany and renewables are so unreliable, that we need >100% installed capacity from “conventional” sources. The storage and “smart grid” is not really feasible or likely to happen imho. More info: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Fraunhofer-ISE-Studie-Wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-Energiesystem.pdf https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/p... Disclaimer: I have PV, use ground heat in my house; I’m totally pro zero emission but Germany’s ideological decision making makes it impossible whilst pumping up prices beyond affordable.
- Tade0 3y ago
  > we need >100% installed capacity from “conventional” sources. You already need that really. A grid going at 70% generation capacity is already considered overloaded.
  - looping__lui 3y ago
    I’m talking about non-renewables. I think (and I might be wrong, but the ballpark should be right), we will have 600% capacity installed in renewables and 100-150% installed in conventional capacity by 2030. So shifting to renewables means like 700+% installer capacity, which means that when sun shines and wind blows, you will only be able to use 1/7 of the electricity produced during the day whilst also potentially running the gas turbines full steam at night. We have observed this a lot this year in Germany (e.g. wind was taken off grid because solar produced too much whilst gas and coal only delivered a minimal (?) operational load).
- iSnow 3y ago
  >we will need to double our capacity from gas (yay) Notably, green gas, not fossil gas. You can call that conventional, but it's not adding CO2 emissions. According to their study, the CO2 factor would fall from 460g/kWh in 2020 to 150 in 2030 and between 3 and 9 in 2050. You can't just go "meh, twice as much as France" and ignore that the scenario starts at 15x France.
Tade0 3y ago
> Hopefully entrenched interests do not let free market disrupt them this time. Too late for that and not for a lack of trying. The IEA has been consistently, hilariously wrong regarding solar growth for almost two decades: https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency-with-2018-update-2/ https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-proj... Meanwhile a prototype 15MW turbine is already producing power: https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/12/30/vestas-15-mw-prototype-turbine-produces-first-power/ https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/12/30/vestas-15-mw-prototy...
zelphirkalt 3y ago
I think people can fathom a lot and demand as much. Even if the renewable energy transition happens faster than we think, we are still a decade or so late. It cannot happen quickly enough at this point.

anonzzzies 3y ago

If everyone plays ball. That we will need to see. China, USA, India also need to go in hard.

senttoschool 3y ago
Doesn't China already lead in many areas of renewables including wind and solar deployments and manufacturing? https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-renewable-energy-supply-lead-with-wind-power-push-2023-03-01 https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-widens-ren... China also supplies the bulk of Germany's solar panel demands.
_ph_ 3y ago
Actually China seems to be ahead of their own plans and Chinese emissions might peak in 24 and decline from that point on as they are rolling out renewables at an astonishing pace.

detourdog 3y ago

I believe some of the acceleration maybe due to local generation decreasing distribution losses and the summer PV generation decreasing peaker plant ramp ups. I think those are subtitles are hard to judge and most likely downplayed by incumbents.

mutlimind 3y ago

In the past 2 decades Germany has blown hundreds of billions of dollars into renewable energy. Now we have the highest electricity price in the world. It is all socialism. Zero market :-(

ragebol 3y ago
The price is determined by the most expensive generator. Without renewables, prices would have been even higher
Aachen 3y ago
> Now we have the highest electricity price in the world. Imagine what that price would have been if the renewables hadn't been there and they bought only "green" gas plants instead. Or "green" nuclear, but we don't talk about that in Germany anymore
- looping__lui 3y ago
  Oh, but you are aware that we need to DOUBLE our installed capacity for gas by 2030 in order to be able to manage our electricity grid towards renewables, right? Page 25: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Fraunhofer-ISE-Studie-Wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-Energiesystem.pdf https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/p...
  - iSnow 3y ago
    Nowhere on p 25 can I find this. Maybe you mean p 27, and I don't get what argument you are trying to make. Yes, there would be more gas capacity, but for green gas.
    - looping__lui 3y ago
      “Green gas”. You mean Biogas? That isn’t really an option: https://www.capital.de/amp/wirtschaft-politik/kann-biogas-russisches-gas-ersetzen--32667834.html https://www.capital.de/amp/wirtschaft-politik/kann-biogas-ru...
      - adrianN 3y ago
        They likely mean hydrogen.

looping__lui 3y ago

Bit not in the way people would anticipate. According to the modeling of the Fraunhofer (base assumption), we will need to double our capacity from gas (yay), double renewables to eventually achieve twice the carbon footprint of France by 2030. The base load is so high in Germany and renewables are so unreliable, that we need >100% installed capacity from “conventional” sources. The storage and “smart grid” is not really feasible or likely to happen imho. More info: https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Fraunhofer-ISE-Studie-Wege-zu-einem-klimaneutralen-Energiesystem.pdf https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/p... Disclaimer: I have PV, use ground heat in my house; I’m totally pro zero emission but Germany’s ideological decision making makes it impossible whilst pumping up prices beyond affordable.

Tade0 3y ago
> we need >100% installed capacity from “conventional” sources. You already need that really. A grid going at 70% generation capacity is already considered overloaded.
- looping__lui 3y ago
  I’m talking about non-renewables. I think (and I might be wrong, but the ballpark should be right), we will have 600% capacity installed in renewables and 100-150% installed in conventional capacity by 2030. So shifting to renewables means like 700+% installer capacity, which means that when sun shines and wind blows, you will only be able to use 1/7 of the electricity produced during the day whilst also potentially running the gas turbines full steam at night. We have observed this a lot this year in Germany (e.g. wind was taken off grid because solar produced too much whilst gas and coal only delivered a minimal (?) operational load).
iSnow 3y ago
>we will need to double our capacity from gas (yay) Notably, green gas, not fossil gas. You can call that conventional, but it's not adding CO2 emissions. According to their study, the CO2 factor would fall from 460g/kWh in 2020 to 150 in 2030 and between 3 and 9 in 2050. You can't just go "meh, twice as much as France" and ignore that the scenario starts at 15x France.

Tade0 3y ago

> Hopefully entrenched interests do not let free market disrupt them this time. Too late for that and not for a lack of trying. The IEA has been consistently, hilariously wrong regarding solar growth for almost two decades: https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-projections-of-the-international-energy-agency-with-2018-update-2/ https://zenmo.com/en/photovoltaic-growth-reality-versus-proj... Meanwhile a prototype 15MW turbine is already producing power: https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/12/30/vestas-15-mw-prototype-turbine-produces-first-power/ https://www.offshorewind.biz/2022/12/30/vestas-15-mw-prototy...

zelphirkalt 3y ago

I think people can fathom a lot and demand as much. Even if the renewable energy transition happens faster than we think, we are still a decade or so late. It cannot happen quickly enough at this point.