I think it's a bit of a fools errand to try and piece this together with public information. Because the details matter massively, and we simply don't know the

I think it's a bit of a fools errand to try and piece this together with public information. Because the details matter massively, and we simply don't know the details. For example, in this summary the initial claim is that Alameda took a loan. But let's look at the details. Actually that loan was in ETH. The value of ETH in Jan 2018 peaked at $1400 and troughed at $700. The value of that ETH over the next 6 months proceeded to drop and stay below $700. So actually, Alameda probably paid (in dollar terms) way less than they had borrowed. If they had just taken the ETH, liquidated, and bought back in to repay it? They'd have made a killing. These details matter. I would wager not even the insiders really know if Alameda ever made money, the conditions that allowed massive fraud to go undiscovered are basically the messy circumstances that mean it's pretty likely no one really knew the net position of the company. The only thing I would say is that if they really were running a ponzi at that point I'm impressed how long they kept it going.