3 ms·

It's created seemingly for a high growth part of the cycle and not a recession. It might fail based on that timing?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
redtehartykle 3y ago
Apple was just valued at over 3T. NVIDIA spiked. Infrastructure Bill spending is coming through as I understand it. We're in a post-vid slump growth phase.
- smoldesu 3y ago
  Growth, or bubble? I don't forsee a world where Apple paves their way to 5 trillion dollar valuation. Both of their highest-margin products (iPhone and App Store) are under threat and require immediate re-arranging. They're an easy bet because "big company strong", but have so many mounting issues to deal with on the global stage. It's extremely unlikely this period of growth lasts into the future. Nvidia is, as you said, a spike. One driven by AI but will probably be irrelevant in a few years. They're still great at engineering and CUDA will almost certainly continue to dominate, but the AI boom won't last forever. Once ASICs hit the scene it will be game over for GPGPU vendors, like it was with crypto in 2021. They'll still have gaming and industry markets to cater to, but their spiking days are numbered.
  - redtehartykle 3y ago
    I thought a valuation of a company on a stock market was a reflection of its potential future profits. So with these recent influx of capital to me that's the market saying that it believes Nvidia and Apple are going to bring in profits in the future so here's money now to grow in order to capture those profits that come in later. I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.
    - joebob42 3y ago
      That's the spherical cow view of how markets work, and it's a meaningful part of what actually happens, but there's also a good amount of hype / new cycle/ non "discounted value of future cash flow" going on in practice.
    - itsoktocry 3y ago
      >I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though. Yes, it's not as simple as "the company will make profits, therefore it's worth a lot". Apple's expected forward p/e is ~28 over the next five years, which means if you believe that and buy now, you can expect an average return of 3.5%. How much you expect future earnings to grow determines if buying now is a good deal or not.
- finikytou 3y ago
  no one should underestimate apple. have you seen the inflate phone prices outside of USA? guess how much iphone 15 will cost... they ll make more money than ever and in 3 generations the vision pro will as well
runako 3y ago
Good thing for them we're[1] not in a recession, then[2]? More seriously, if anybody launches a platform that can't weather a recession, it wasn't going to make it long-term anyway. Windows 3 launched around the 1990 recession, IBM PC launched into the 1982 recession, iPhone launched during the 2007/2008 recession. Platforms take time to take shape. A recession occurring early in a platform's life might even be beneficial, as it will make management more forgiving of "missed" sales targets in the early years. 1 - The USA 2 - Seriously, we're not in a recession and haven't been for 3 years. The economy grew at this rate most of the last decade and there were no complaints about us being in a recession. Money costs more now is the major difference.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

Apple was just valued at over 3T. NVIDIA spiked. Infrastructure Bill spending is coming through as I understand it. We're in a post-vid slump growth phase.

smoldesu 3y ago
Growth, or bubble? I don't forsee a world where Apple paves their way to 5 trillion dollar valuation. Both of their highest-margin products (iPhone and App Store) are under threat and require immediate re-arranging. They're an easy bet because "big company strong", but have so many mounting issues to deal with on the global stage. It's extremely unlikely this period of growth lasts into the future. Nvidia is, as you said, a spike. One driven by AI but will probably be irrelevant in a few years. They're still great at engineering and CUDA will almost certainly continue to dominate, but the AI boom won't last forever. Once ASICs hit the scene it will be game over for GPGPU vendors, like it was with crypto in 2021. They'll still have gaming and industry markets to cater to, but their spiking days are numbered.
- redtehartykle 3y ago
  I thought a valuation of a company on a stock market was a reflection of its potential future profits. So with these recent influx of capital to me that's the market saying that it believes Nvidia and Apple are going to bring in profits in the future so here's money now to grow in order to capture those profits that come in later. I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.
  - joebob42 3y ago
    That's the spherical cow view of how markets work, and it's a meaningful part of what actually happens, but there's also a good amount of hype / new cycle/ non "discounted value of future cash flow" going on in practice.
  - itsoktocry 3y ago
    >I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though. Yes, it's not as simple as "the company will make profits, therefore it's worth a lot". Apple's expected forward p/e is ~28 over the next five years, which means if you believe that and buy now, you can expect an average return of 3.5%. How much you expect future earnings to grow determines if buying now is a good deal or not.
finikytou 3y ago
no one should underestimate apple. have you seen the inflate phone prices outside of USA? guess how much iphone 15 will cost... they ll make more money than ever and in 3 generations the vision pro will as well

runako 3y ago

Good thing for them we're[1] not in a recession, then[2]? More seriously, if anybody launches a platform that can't weather a recession, it wasn't going to make it long-term anyway. Windows 3 launched around the 1990 recession, IBM PC launched into the 1982 recession, iPhone launched during the 2007/2008 recession. Platforms take time to take shape. A recession occurring early in a platform's life might even be beneficial, as it will make management more forgiving of "missed" sales targets in the early years. 1 - The USA 2 - Seriously, we're not in a recession and haven't been for 3 years. The economy grew at this rate most of the last decade and there were no complaints about us being in a recession. Money costs more now is the major difference.