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Based on the articles I've read about this product, it might be the most advanced consumer tech we've ever seen. It would be a surprise if the production was a

Based on the articles I've read about this product, it might be the most advanced consumer tech we've ever seen. It would be a surprise if the production was a smooth sailing.

kzrdude 3y ago
It's created seemingly for a high growth part of the cycle and not a recession. It might fail based on that timing?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- redtehartykle 3y ago
  Apple was just valued at over 3T. NVIDIA spiked. Infrastructure Bill spending is coming through as I understand it. We're in a post-vid slump growth phase.
  - smoldesu 3y ago
    Growth, or bubble? I don't forsee a world where Apple paves their way to 5 trillion dollar valuation. Both of their highest-margin products (iPhone and App Store) are under threat and require immediate re-arranging. They're an easy bet because "big company strong", but have so many mounting issues to deal with on the global stage. It's extremely unlikely this period of growth lasts into the future. Nvidia is, as you said, a spike. One driven by AI but will probably be irrelevant in a few years. They're still great at engineering and CUDA will almost certainly continue to dominate, but the AI boom won't last forever. Once ASICs hit the scene it will be game over for GPGPU vendors, like it was with crypto in 2021. They'll still have gaming and industry markets to cater to, but their spiking days are numbered.
    - redtehartykle 3y ago
      I thought a valuation of a company on a stock market was a reflection of its potential future profits. So with these recent influx of capital to me that's the market saying that it believes Nvidia and Apple are going to bring in profits in the future so here's money now to grow in order to capture those profits that come in later. I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.
      - joebob42 3y ago
        That's the spherical cow view of how markets work, and it's a meaningful part of what actually happens, but there's also a good amount of hype / new cycle/ non "discounted value of future cash flow" going on in practice.
      - itsoktocry 3y ago
        >I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though. Yes, it's not as simple as "the company will make profits, therefore it's worth a lot". Apple's expected forward p/e is ~28 over the next five years, which means if you believe that and buy now, you can expect an average return of 3.5%. How much you expect future earnings to grow determines if buying now is a good deal or not.
  - finikytou 3y ago
    no one should underestimate apple. have you seen the inflate phone prices outside of USA? guess how much iphone 15 will cost... they ll make more money than ever and in 3 generations the vision pro will as well
- runako 3y ago
  Good thing for them we're[1] not in a recession, then[2]? More seriously, if anybody launches a platform that can't weather a recession, it wasn't going to make it long-term anyway. Windows 3 launched around the 1990 recession, IBM PC launched into the 1982 recession, iPhone launched during the 2007/2008 recession. Platforms take time to take shape. A recession occurring early in a platform's life might even be beneficial, as it will make management more forgiving of "missed" sales targets in the early years. 1 - The USA 2 - Seriously, we're not in a recession and haven't been for 3 years. The economy grew at this rate most of the last decade and there were no complaints about us being in a recession. Money costs more now is the major difference.
vanattab 3y ago
How is it so much better then other passthrough vr headsets?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- jwells89 3y ago
  Its fidelity is considerably higher with a 4k+ MicroOLED panel for each eye, which eliminates screen door effect, aliasing, etc making use cases that involve reading a lot of text in it more feasible. Its passthrough is also extremely low latency at 12ms, and it’s built with a full M2 SoC which is a good deal beefier than anything integrated into other standalone headsets.
  - 3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
    I just want to point out that despite this is one of the highest resolution VR screens on the planet right now, the pixel density would have to double once again in order to achieve Retina resolution. This is why Apple doesn't say "Retina" when talking about Vision Pro. For people who think they'll be designing and coding on Vision Pro virtual screens all day might be disappointed.
    - jwells89 3y ago
      Certainly text won’t be as comfortable to read as on a high DPI display, but it’ll at least be usable, which is a notable step up from where things stand now. I own a Quest 2 and though it’s fine for gaming I can’t imagine using it for work in any capacity at all.
      - 3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
        Yes, the resolution should be roughly comparable to working on a typical 20-something inch HD PC screen from normal desk distance. EDIT: Although since the screen pixels are aligned to your eyes (head, more specifically), and not to the environment, this means the rasterization of the text will shift around as you move (even slightly). Which means it'll be slightly blurrier than a screen of similar resolution, as you can't employ "pixel snapping" and other tricks (as seen on Windows) to make low res text look better.
semi-extrinsic 3y ago
I quite frankly don't understand what makes this the most advanced consumer tech ever. What about mRNA vaccines? Centimetre-accuracy differential GPS navigation systems that fit the palm of your hand, like the uBlox f9p? 3D printers like the Ultimaker S5 that can feed carbon fiber thread into the print? High-end cameras like the Sony A1? What is the defining feature(s) that makes a new VR headset so much more advanced?
- rbanffy 3y ago
  It really pushes the envelope on many fronts - thermals, displays, materials, sensor integration, specialised hardware… I would never expect any rollout like that to go as planned.
  - justapassenger 3y ago
    All of them are basically iterations on current customer devices, with main advantages coming mostly from: 1. Apple willing to attach mind boggling price tag to it. You can engineer much more things if price tag is 10x of industry leader (oculus 2). 2. Apple is taking a big shortcuts with external battery, that gives you a lot of extra power, space and thermal leeway. I’m not saying that they didn’t make something great - it does seem great. And given it’s Apple, they’ll likely have great polish and attention to detail, that make a HUGE difference. But it’s not a best thing since sliced bread. It’s not a technological breakthrough. It’s “just” a new generation of customer electronic device, that’s better than previous one.
  - semi-extrinsic 3y ago
    If you replace "display" with "image sensor", the Sony A1 pushes the envelope on all those fronts as well. And of course Apple is buying the displays for their headset from Sony, so who is doing the envelope pushing there?
- arijun 3y ago
  I don’t know that I agree with the wording of the parent post, but I understand the sentiment. It does include a lot of hardware that is relatively cutting edge, and the insanely low latency on the system is reflected in that. While calling it “the most advanced” might be a bit of a stretch, the sophistication of the hardware was something that I wouldn’t have previously thought possible. Some of your counter examples fall short of that complexity. The actual mRNA vaccines are pretty technologically simple, the complexity in differential gps is in its algorithms rather than hardware, and is that camera really groundbreaking (genuine question).

Based on the articles I've read about this product, it might be the most advanced consumer tech we've ever seen. It would be a surprise if the production was a smooth sailing.

kzrdude 3y ago

It's created seemingly for a high growth part of the cycle and not a recession. It might fail based on that timing?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
redtehartykle 3y ago
Apple was just valued at over 3T. NVIDIA spiked. Infrastructure Bill spending is coming through as I understand it. We're in a post-vid slump growth phase.
- smoldesu 3y ago
  Growth, or bubble? I don't forsee a world where Apple paves their way to 5 trillion dollar valuation. Both of their highest-margin products (iPhone and App Store) are under threat and require immediate re-arranging. They're an easy bet because "big company strong", but have so many mounting issues to deal with on the global stage. It's extremely unlikely this period of growth lasts into the future. Nvidia is, as you said, a spike. One driven by AI but will probably be irrelevant in a few years. They're still great at engineering and CUDA will almost certainly continue to dominate, but the AI boom won't last forever. Once ASICs hit the scene it will be game over for GPGPU vendors, like it was with crypto in 2021. They'll still have gaming and industry markets to cater to, but their spiking days are numbered.
  - redtehartykle 3y ago
    I thought a valuation of a company on a stock market was a reflection of its potential future profits. So with these recent influx of capital to me that's the market saying that it believes Nvidia and Apple are going to bring in profits in the future so here's money now to grow in order to capture those profits that come in later. I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though.
    - joebob42 3y ago
      That's the spherical cow view of how markets work, and it's a meaningful part of what actually happens, but there's also a good amount of hype / new cycle/ non "discounted value of future cash flow" going on in practice.
    - itsoktocry 3y ago
      >I'm probably misunderstanding aspects here though. Yes, it's not as simple as "the company will make profits, therefore it's worth a lot". Apple's expected forward p/e is ~28 over the next five years, which means if you believe that and buy now, you can expect an average return of 3.5%. How much you expect future earnings to grow determines if buying now is a good deal or not.
- finikytou 3y ago
  no one should underestimate apple. have you seen the inflate phone prices outside of USA? guess how much iphone 15 will cost... they ll make more money than ever and in 3 generations the vision pro will as well
runako 3y ago
Good thing for them we're[1] not in a recession, then[2]? More seriously, if anybody launches a platform that can't weather a recession, it wasn't going to make it long-term anyway. Windows 3 launched around the 1990 recession, IBM PC launched into the 1982 recession, iPhone launched during the 2007/2008 recession. Platforms take time to take shape. A recession occurring early in a platform's life might even be beneficial, as it will make management more forgiving of "missed" sales targets in the early years. 1 - The USA 2 - Seriously, we're not in a recession and haven't been for 3 years. The economy grew at this rate most of the last decade and there were no complaints about us being in a recession. Money costs more now is the major difference.

vanattab 3y ago

How is it so much better then other passthrough vr headsets?

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
jwells89 3y ago
Its fidelity is considerably higher with a 4k+ MicroOLED panel for each eye, which eliminates screen door effect, aliasing, etc making use cases that involve reading a lot of text in it more feasible. Its passthrough is also extremely low latency at 12ms, and it’s built with a full M2 SoC which is a good deal beefier than anything integrated into other standalone headsets.
- 3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
  I just want to point out that despite this is one of the highest resolution VR screens on the planet right now, the pixel density would have to double once again in order to achieve Retina resolution. This is why Apple doesn't say "Retina" when talking about Vision Pro. For people who think they'll be designing and coding on Vision Pro virtual screens all day might be disappointed.
  - jwells89 3y ago
    Certainly text won’t be as comfortable to read as on a high DPI display, but it’ll at least be usable, which is a notable step up from where things stand now. I own a Quest 2 and though it’s fine for gaming I can’t imagine using it for work in any capacity at all.
    - 3cats-in-a-coat 3y ago
      Yes, the resolution should be roughly comparable to working on a typical 20-something inch HD PC screen from normal desk distance. EDIT: Although since the screen pixels are aligned to your eyes (head, more specifically), and not to the environment, this means the rasterization of the text will shift around as you move (even slightly). Which means it'll be slightly blurrier than a screen of similar resolution, as you can't employ "pixel snapping" and other tricks (as seen on Windows) to make low res text look better.

semi-extrinsic 3y ago

I quite frankly don't understand what makes this the most advanced consumer tech ever. What about mRNA vaccines? Centimetre-accuracy differential GPS navigation systems that fit the palm of your hand, like the uBlox f9p? 3D printers like the Ultimaker S5 that can feed carbon fiber thread into the print? High-end cameras like the Sony A1? What is the defining feature(s) that makes a new VR headset so much more advanced?

rbanffy 3y ago
It really pushes the envelope on many fronts - thermals, displays, materials, sensor integration, specialised hardware… I would never expect any rollout like that to go as planned.
- justapassenger 3y ago
  All of them are basically iterations on current customer devices, with main advantages coming mostly from: 1. Apple willing to attach mind boggling price tag to it. You can engineer much more things if price tag is 10x of industry leader (oculus 2). 2. Apple is taking a big shortcuts with external battery, that gives you a lot of extra power, space and thermal leeway. I’m not saying that they didn’t make something great - it does seem great. And given it’s Apple, they’ll likely have great polish and attention to detail, that make a HUGE difference. But it’s not a best thing since sliced bread. It’s not a technological breakthrough. It’s “just” a new generation of customer electronic device, that’s better than previous one.
- semi-extrinsic 3y ago
  If you replace "display" with "image sensor", the Sony A1 pushes the envelope on all those fronts as well. And of course Apple is buying the displays for their headset from Sony, so who is doing the envelope pushing there?
arijun 3y ago
I don’t know that I agree with the wording of the parent post, but I understand the sentiment. It does include a lot of hardware that is relatively cutting edge, and the insanely low latency on the system is reflected in that. While calling it “the most advanced” might be a bit of a stretch, the sophistication of the hardware was something that I wouldn’t have previously thought possible. Some of your counter examples fall short of that complexity. The actual mRNA vaccines are pretty technologically simple, the complexity in differential gps is in its algorithms rather than hardware, and is that camera really groundbreaking (genuine question).