Someone has been working on survey forecasts, since 2016, https://aiimpacts.org/ https://aiimpacts.org/. As fraught or self-selected as the group might be, some

Someone has been working on survey forecasts, since 2016, https://aiimpacts.org/ https://aiimpacts.org/. As fraught or self-selected as the group might be, someone labors on it. Unfortunately, fortunately, expectedly, or otherwise, the only people writing about this in a concerted way are the people taking it seriously. And maybe Gary Marcus, whose negative predictions repeatedly became milestones surpassed. You can read a review of the survey efforts, and complications of the results at https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/through-a-glass-darkly https://asteriskmag.com/issues/03/through-a-glass-darkly Yogi Berra supposedly said that “prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” and the surveys are finding that even achieved milestones are still forecast as a few years out, by most of these carefully sampled experts. ...welcome to the conversation :D.