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A few years back (let's call it 2020) and autonomous cars, which are being used for taxi trips today, would be five years in the future. In fact they would be t
by ctoth 3y ago
A few years back (let's call it 2020) and autonomous cars, which are being used for taxi trips today, would be five years in the future. In fact they would be three. Unless something major happens in the next two years, there will still be self-driving cars, even more of them, driving and picking up people in 2025. This is not the argument you think it is.
- lolinder 3y agoSelf-driving cars currently operate in extremely controlled conditions in a few specific locations. There's very little evidence that they're on a trajectory to break free of those restrictions. It doesn't matter how much an airliner climbs in altitude, it's not going to reach LEO. Self-driving cars will not revolutionize the roads on the timescale that people thought it would, but the effort we put into them brought us adaptive cruise control and lane assist, which are great improvements. AI will do similar: it will fall short of our wildest dreams, but still provide useful tools in the end.
- DennisP 3y agoTesla FSD isn't restricted to specific locations, and seems to be reducing the number of human interventions per hour at a pretty decent pace.
- lolinder 3y agoInterventions per hour isn't a great metric for deciding if the tech is going to be actually capable of replacing the human driver. The big problem with that number is that the denominator (per hour) only includes times when the human driver has chosen to trust FSD. This means that some improvements will be from the tech getting better, but a good chunk of it will be from drivers becoming better able to identify when FSD is appropriate and when it's not. Additionally, the metric completely excludes times where the human wouldn't have considered FSD at all, so even reaching 0 on interventions per hour will still exclude blizzards, heavy rain, dense fog, and other situations where the average human would think "I'd better be in charge here."