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I'm going to paint three huge demographic swaths here, with the caveat that the merits of any given argument, or any individual's track record, should override
by furyofantares 3y ago
I'm going to paint three huge demographic swaths here, with the caveat that the merits of any given argument, or any individual's track record, should override anything I say here.
I'm only doing this as a reply to a comment that's also talking about trends among three groups of people.
1. The "people in the trenches" are who I'd least trust about an opinion that everything is OK. Too hard to see the forest for the trees, and too much selection bias.
2. People who gained recognition decades ago, but who are in their slowing-down years as the world continues to change, are among those who I would least trust about an opinion that things are going too fast. It gets harder to keep up as we get older, and as we gain different priorities in life, and I expect this is true no matter how smart we are.
3. People who have spent decades philosophizing about AI-doom are also among those who I would least trust about an opinion that hasn't hugely deviated and become more nuanced as the world has changed and new data has become available.
I am absolutely interested in opinions from all three groups, but the arguments have to stand on their merits. If they're in one of these groups and express the expected opinion, that's actually a strike AGAINST their authority and means the merits of their argument need to be stronger.
I really, really do want to hear opinions from folks in all these groups, I just want to keep this all in mind. I also want to hear opinions from younger philosophers. Folks who are better in-touch with the current world, and rates of progress, and folks who don't have any reputation to uphold.
Also, anyone changing their mind is a big deal. Hofstadter may have changed his mind in the expected direction, but it's still a signal. I'd like to hear more of his thoughts. It doesn't sound carefully considered in the clip in OP's link unfortunately, but that doesn't mean it isn't, and I'd like to hear it.