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Not really afraid of that at all. On the contrary, you cannot just take an AI and make it do stuff. You need experts to parameterize and train it. It is also a

Not really afraid of that at all. On the contrary, you cannot just take an AI and make it do stuff. You need experts to parameterize and train it. It is also a bit more complicated than a pid controller where you turn a few knobs. For training you would need domain experts. The same reason we didn't see too widespread automation in industry. You actually need a lot of engineers to automate systems for their specific purpose. Today robots sold the most primitive parts but even there rework is needed. There are exceptions where scale and value of the good allows for it. An AI currently isn't even capable of doing excel business analysis without the data being checked. This check has to be done by an analyst as well. It cannot even do book keeping without errors and the work to check for errors surpasses doing it yourself. We aren't there where anyone has to fear about their jobs from AI compared to general technological advancement. If so I think the first impact will hit the click generators (good) and artists (bad). Although in both cases you need people to generate new concepts. True that you cannot get rid of cooks ever though.

TapWaterBandit 3y ago
I agree that engineers will likely be fine (if at all decent). But there are many more jobs done on computers that are fairly routine which are the ones that will be threatened. > An AI currently isn't even capable of doing excel business analysis without the data being checked. This check has to be done by an analyst as well. It cannot even do book keeping without errors and the work to check for errors surpasses doing it yourself. Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. If any part of your job is using microsoft/Mac software I think you will see a radical shake up in work (that will still enable more people to be entrepreneurs etc so on balance a good thing).
- ben_w 3y ago
  > Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. I'd go further and say: Excel is the automation: "computer" used to be a profession rather than a machine, and a linear regression line-of-best fit is basically the same maths as a single (no backprop) perceptron, which we used to have to calculate by hand.
- kcplate 3y ago
  > Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. I think AI will probably eliminate almost all future knowledge worker jobs through simple attrition. In 20 years, perhaps 1 human knowledge worker will be doing the work of 100 (measured by todays productivity) augmented by integrated AI in the tools they use. I am convinced that short of certain trades, we will watch AI erode everything. Personally, I am on a mission to convince my 2 year old grandson that becoming a plumber is the key to his future wealth.
  - JimtheCoder 3y ago
    "I think AI will probably eliminate almost all future knowledge worker jobs through simple attrition. In 20 years, perhaps 1 human knowledge worker will be doing the work of 100 (measured by todays productivity) augmented by integrated AI in the tools they use." Lump of labour fallacy?
    - TapWaterBandit 3y ago
      Yea, I don't think this will happen over the longterm. I do see worker dislocation in certain sectors though, can't see how LLM's won't substantially shake-up office work especially as Microsoft is already busy building them into the Office Suite.
      - kcplate 3y ago
        >I do see worker dislocation in certain sectors… Which was my point. Knowledge workers (and the types of people who gravitate to knowledge work careers) will be dislocated and what work remains may not be as rewarding both financially and personally to these kind of people. People of course adapt, but would that person sitting on the autism spectrum who can thrive and make exceptional income as a SWE be able to adapt to a less cerebral career? Will there be mentally rewarding work for those displaced? Those are real concerns and a possible butterfly effect of AI. My hope for my grandchildren is to pursue careers that can weather the automation and AI storm. Becoming a plumber might be literally shit work, but it’s one trade that is AI and automation proof for many years to come.
- moneywoes 3y ago
  >I agree that engineers will likely be fine (if at all decent). But there are many more jobs done on computers that are fairly routine which are the ones that will be threatened. for instance, transcription?

TapWaterBandit 3y ago

I agree that engineers will likely be fine (if at all decent). But there are many more jobs done on computers that are fairly routine which are the ones that will be threatened. > An AI currently isn't even capable of doing excel business analysis without the data being checked. This check has to be done by an analyst as well. It cannot even do book keeping without errors and the work to check for errors surpasses doing it yourself. Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. If any part of your job is using microsoft/Mac software I think you will see a radical shake up in work (that will still enable more people to be entrepreneurs etc so on balance a good thing).

ben_w 3y ago
> Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. I'd go further and say: Excel is the automation: "computer" used to be a profession rather than a machine, and a linear regression line-of-best fit is basically the same maths as a single (no backprop) perceptron, which we used to have to calculate by hand.
kcplate 3y ago
> Here I think you are thinking about this wrong. AI is going to be built directly into Excel so I think it will harm a lot of especially entry level type work for analysts. I think AI will probably eliminate almost all future knowledge worker jobs through simple attrition. In 20 years, perhaps 1 human knowledge worker will be doing the work of 100 (measured by todays productivity) augmented by integrated AI in the tools they use. I am convinced that short of certain trades, we will watch AI erode everything. Personally, I am on a mission to convince my 2 year old grandson that becoming a plumber is the key to his future wealth.
- JimtheCoder 3y ago
  "I think AI will probably eliminate almost all future knowledge worker jobs through simple attrition. In 20 years, perhaps 1 human knowledge worker will be doing the work of 100 (measured by todays productivity) augmented by integrated AI in the tools they use." Lump of labour fallacy?
  - TapWaterBandit 3y ago
    Yea, I don't think this will happen over the longterm. I do see worker dislocation in certain sectors though, can't see how LLM's won't substantially shake-up office work especially as Microsoft is already busy building them into the Office Suite.
    - kcplate 3y ago
      >I do see worker dislocation in certain sectors… Which was my point. Knowledge workers (and the types of people who gravitate to knowledge work careers) will be dislocated and what work remains may not be as rewarding both financially and personally to these kind of people. People of course adapt, but would that person sitting on the autism spectrum who can thrive and make exceptional income as a SWE be able to adapt to a less cerebral career? Will there be mentally rewarding work for those displaced? Those are real concerns and a possible butterfly effect of AI. My hope for my grandchildren is to pursue careers that can weather the automation and AI storm. Becoming a plumber might be literally shit work, but it’s one trade that is AI and automation proof for many years to come.
moneywoes 3y ago
>I agree that engineers will likely be fine (if at all decent). But there are many more jobs done on computers that are fairly routine which are the ones that will be threatened. for instance, transcription?