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Tesla fanboys need to stop being so short-sighted. All innovation in cars will not stop at the BEV. There will be a next technology leap beyond the BEV. And if

by _hypx 3y ago

Tesla fanboys need to stop being so short-sighted. All innovation in cars will not stop at the BEV. There will be a next technology leap beyond the BEV. And if you think honestly about what that is, it will be hydrogen cars. Simply because they are EVs without the limitations of the li-ion battery. As a result, people need to think carefully about what comes next. If anything, BEVs represent a transitional technology. You can think of them as being what Reddit is right now. Sure, it disrupted what came before (i.e. Digg), but it is not the end-result of that particular business sector. And if that is the case, then it is likely that Tesla, not Toyota, that faces the biggest challenge in the future.

Gwypaas 3y ago
Sorry to break it to you, hydrogen or e-fuels definitely have a place in the future for fertilizer, seasonal storage and maritime shipping. For personal vehicles BEVs won nearly 10 years ago. See the "Hydrogen ladder" for further, more eloquent, information. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/clean-hydrogen-ladder-v40-michael-liebreich/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/clean-hydrogen-ladder-v40-mic...
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- _hypx 3y ago
  That's Luddite bullshit. Complete gibberish. The simple fact is that fuel cell cars are also EVs. As a result, there are no fundamental limitations compared to BEVs. They are fundamentally guaranteed to be just as good as BEVs. And since BEVs are not a sustainable technology, they are destined to be replaced by their truly sustainable alternative. Which is a "battery" made from water. That is the self-evident future of EVs.
  - Gwypaas 3y ago
    > That's Luddite bullshit. Complete gibberish. I would recommend you to read the guidelines when posting here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html > The simple fact is that fuel cell cars are also EVs. As a result, there are no fundamental limitations compared to BEVs. They are fundamentally guaranteed to be just as good as BEVs. In other words, you pay for two cars in one when you could simply pay for one car and charge it from any wall outlet. > And since BEVs are not a sustainable technology This is a statement which requires proof.
    - _hypx 3y ago
      And if someone said that vacuum tubes are the future, what is your response? It's pure absurdity to claim that an obsolete technology is the future. You'd immediately get up and ridicule the obvious non sequiturs in their logic. FYI, BEVs predate the ICE car. It is an incredibly outdated idea. In reality, hydrogen cars are far cheaper to make than BEVs. They have very little raw material needs. They do not need the hundreds of kilograms of batteries that BEVs need. They only need water as their raw material. That's fundamentally a superior idea. You can never make a coherent argument that an EV powered by rare or limited resources could ever be a better idea. Again, a fuel cell car is literally an EV, only one whose "battery" is made from water. You cannot do better than that.
      - kelnos 3y ago
        That's a bit of a disingenuous analogy; vacuum tubes have already been supplanted by a better technology. Hydrogen may be a better technology than BEVs, but it hasn't supplanted anything. > You can never make a coherent argument that an EV powered by rare or limited resources could ever be a better idea. Better idea or not, BEVs are being produced in ever-increasing numbers. Hydrogen cars are not. Sure, maybe that will change at some point in the future, but I think BEVs have too much momentum and capital behind them to fade away any time soon. As an aside: judging by your word choice and tone in your comments, you seem to be emotionally invested in hydrogen cars. That's fine, but I think how you're presenting things is hurting your argument quite a bit.
        _hypx 3y ago
        Then you can use whatever technology that hasn't be driven into obsolescence yet, but basic physics nearly guarantees that outcome. Maybe flash memory versus HDDs, or perhaps fiber optics over copper wires. BEVs where at basically zero not that long ago. The problem is that economically, they are always going to have a major upfront cost. And the more range and the larger the car, the bigger this will be. It's Tesla fanboys that are invested in a particular outcome. My own opinion is just asking "what comes next?" If you ask that question honestly, you'll end up with the same opinion that I have.
  - mensetmanusman 3y ago
    Fuel cells require pretty exotic materials to accomplish the ox:redox reactions of water...
    - _hypx 3y ago
      No. Fuel cells can be constructed with no special materials. Even those that need them need extremely small quantities of it. A PEM fuel cell needs about as much platinum as a catalytic converter.
- FireBeyond 3y ago
  Michael Liebrich, who can't find a single negative thing to say about Tesla, is poo-poo'ing hydrogen? I'm shocked.
pornel 3y ago
• Hydrogen's end-to-end efficiency is low (losses in electrolysis + transport + fuel cell), so running costs are inherently a couple times higher than BEV's. This alone IMHO kills chances of mass adoption, as people will simply not want to pay more. • EV charging stations are already common, unlike hydrogen fuel stations that barely exist anywhere. Charging stations are easier and cheaper to install and maintain (no need to deliver fuel or deal with moving parts for high pressure or cryogenic storage), so this is likely to stay in BEV's favor. • You can't refill the high-pressure hydrogen just by plugging into your home outlet. For people who can charge BEV at home it is a huge convenience. • The range of the Toyota Mirai is barely higher than long-range BEVs'. It doesn't even solve BEVs' main shortcoming, despite compromising a lot of space for hydrogen tanks! • High-end BEVs can already recharge to 80% under 20 minutes, and don't require you to be near the car while charging (so you can get a coffee/toilet break at the same time). All of this trouble and cost to shave it down to a 5 minute refill, which you have to spend attending to the pump, is just not worth all of the fuel costs, wasted car space, and rollout of a new fuel pipeline. Hydrogen may find uses in aviation, or long-distance trucks, maybe heavy machinery, but it's a poor fit for passenger cars and has already lost.
- _hypx 3y ago
  1) That's a lie by BEV companies. I keep on telling people that fuel cell cars are EVs. So where does argument even come from? It comes from nothing. There is no basis to make this claim. Not to mention that the point of renewable energy is their lack of raw material requirements, not their inherent efficiency. If you can imagine a world where solar energy is nearly free, than so can hydrogen. 2) Which is meaningless because hydrogen distribution is fundamentally cheaper. Once you realize that pipelines are cheaper than wires, you will eventually realize that hydrogen stations will be cheap to deploy and ultimately be cheaper than building enough charging stations for everyone. 3) Actually you can because home electrolysis is fully doable. This is another completely made-up argument. The only thing to be brought up is that you don't want home recharging at all. After all, cars are driven outside on the road, not at home. Once you have a network of refueling stations, you don't need a redundant refueling system at home. 4) That's like saying an ICE car has barely longer range. Your ignoring the fact that you need something like $30k of batteries to match that range in a BEV. For a FCEV that comes at a tiny cost. 5) And yet it is still an advantage. Five minutes, especially when you realize it is guaranteed everything single time, is a major advantage. And you will never have to worry about damaging the battery when refueling this fast. This is ultimately a short-sighted argument. When hydrogen cars are no more expensive than ICE cars and the fuel is basically free, where does that leave BEVs? It doesn't. This is the end of the BEV.

by _hypx 3y ago

Gwypaas 3y ago

Sorry to break it to you, hydrogen or e-fuels definitely have a place in the future for fertilizer, seasonal storage and maritime shipping. For personal vehicles BEVs won nearly 10 years ago. See the "Hydrogen ladder" for further, more eloquent, information. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/clean-hydrogen-ladder-v40-michael-liebreich/ https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/clean-hydrogen-ladder-v40-mic...

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
_hypx 3y ago
That's Luddite bullshit. Complete gibberish. The simple fact is that fuel cell cars are also EVs. As a result, there are no fundamental limitations compared to BEVs. They are fundamentally guaranteed to be just as good as BEVs. And since BEVs are not a sustainable technology, they are destined to be replaced by their truly sustainable alternative. Which is a "battery" made from water. That is the self-evident future of EVs.
- Gwypaas 3y ago
  > That's Luddite bullshit. Complete gibberish. I would recommend you to read the guidelines when posting here. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html > The simple fact is that fuel cell cars are also EVs. As a result, there are no fundamental limitations compared to BEVs. They are fundamentally guaranteed to be just as good as BEVs. In other words, you pay for two cars in one when you could simply pay for one car and charge it from any wall outlet. > And since BEVs are not a sustainable technology This is a statement which requires proof.
  - _hypx 3y ago
    And if someone said that vacuum tubes are the future, what is your response? It's pure absurdity to claim that an obsolete technology is the future. You'd immediately get up and ridicule the obvious non sequiturs in their logic. FYI, BEVs predate the ICE car. It is an incredibly outdated idea. In reality, hydrogen cars are far cheaper to make than BEVs. They have very little raw material needs. They do not need the hundreds of kilograms of batteries that BEVs need. They only need water as their raw material. That's fundamentally a superior idea. You can never make a coherent argument that an EV powered by rare or limited resources could ever be a better idea. Again, a fuel cell car is literally an EV, only one whose "battery" is made from water. You cannot do better than that.
    - kelnos 3y ago
      That's a bit of a disingenuous analogy; vacuum tubes have already been supplanted by a better technology. Hydrogen may be a better technology than BEVs, but it hasn't supplanted anything. > You can never make a coherent argument that an EV powered by rare or limited resources could ever be a better idea. Better idea or not, BEVs are being produced in ever-increasing numbers. Hydrogen cars are not. Sure, maybe that will change at some point in the future, but I think BEVs have too much momentum and capital behind them to fade away any time soon. As an aside: judging by your word choice and tone in your comments, you seem to be emotionally invested in hydrogen cars. That's fine, but I think how you're presenting things is hurting your argument quite a bit.
      - _hypx 3y ago
        Then you can use whatever technology that hasn't be driven into obsolescence yet, but basic physics nearly guarantees that outcome. Maybe flash memory versus HDDs, or perhaps fiber optics over copper wires. BEVs where at basically zero not that long ago. The problem is that economically, they are always going to have a major upfront cost. And the more range and the larger the car, the bigger this will be. It's Tesla fanboys that are invested in a particular outcome. My own opinion is just asking "what comes next?" If you ask that question honestly, you'll end up with the same opinion that I have.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  Fuel cells require pretty exotic materials to accomplish the ox:redox reactions of water...
  - _hypx 3y ago
    No. Fuel cells can be constructed with no special materials. Even those that need them need extremely small quantities of it. A PEM fuel cell needs about as much platinum as a catalytic converter.
FireBeyond 3y ago
Michael Liebrich, who can't find a single negative thing to say about Tesla, is poo-poo'ing hydrogen? I'm shocked.

pornel 3y ago

• Hydrogen's end-to-end efficiency is low (losses in electrolysis + transport + fuel cell), so running costs are inherently a couple times higher than BEV's. This alone IMHO kills chances of mass adoption, as people will simply not want to pay more. • EV charging stations are already common, unlike hydrogen fuel stations that barely exist anywhere. Charging stations are easier and cheaper to install and maintain (no need to deliver fuel or deal with moving parts for high pressure or cryogenic storage), so this is likely to stay in BEV's favor. • You can't refill the high-pressure hydrogen just by plugging into your home outlet. For people who can charge BEV at home it is a huge convenience. • The range of the Toyota Mirai is barely higher than long-range BEVs'. It doesn't even solve BEVs' main shortcoming, despite compromising a lot of space for hydrogen tanks! • High-end BEVs can already recharge to 80% under 20 minutes, and don't require you to be near the car while charging (so you can get a coffee/toilet break at the same time). All of this trouble and cost to shave it down to a 5 minute refill, which you have to spend attending to the pump, is just not worth all of the fuel costs, wasted car space, and rollout of a new fuel pipeline. Hydrogen may find uses in aviation, or long-distance trucks, maybe heavy machinery, but it's a poor fit for passenger cars and has already lost.

_hypx 3y ago
1) That's a lie by BEV companies. I keep on telling people that fuel cell cars are EVs. So where does argument even come from? It comes from nothing. There is no basis to make this claim. Not to mention that the point of renewable energy is their lack of raw material requirements, not their inherent efficiency. If you can imagine a world where solar energy is nearly free, than so can hydrogen. 2) Which is meaningless because hydrogen distribution is fundamentally cheaper. Once you realize that pipelines are cheaper than wires, you will eventually realize that hydrogen stations will be cheap to deploy and ultimately be cheaper than building enough charging stations for everyone. 3) Actually you can because home electrolysis is fully doable. This is another completely made-up argument. The only thing to be brought up is that you don't want home recharging at all. After all, cars are driven outside on the road, not at home. Once you have a network of refueling stations, you don't need a redundant refueling system at home. 4) That's like saying an ICE car has barely longer range. Your ignoring the fact that you need something like $30k of batteries to match that range in a BEV. For a FCEV that comes at a tiny cost. 5) And yet it is still an advantage. Five minutes, especially when you realize it is guaranteed everything single time, is a major advantage. And you will never have to worry about damaging the battery when refueling this fast. This is ultimately a short-sighted argument. When hydrogen cars are no more expensive than ICE cars and the fuel is basically free, where does that leave BEVs? It doesn't. This is the end of the BEV.