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A dishwasher isn't autonomous. I'm talking about the second. I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to fo

A dishwasher isn't autonomous. I'm talking about the second. I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years.

hutzlibu 3y ago
"An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything" " I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years" Very unlikely. I mean you can build something that roughly does that already today, but it will break things and/or it will be so slow it is unusable. Also you have to take savety into account. The robot may not wash the cat or the kid and not accidently break them. But the level of required autonomy for the task requires a machine that can be dangerous. And the recent rise of LLMs really don't help with reliable doing tasks in an unfamiliar environment. Making cars drive save everywhere is an equally hard target and despite all the investment, I don't see us getting there anywhere soon. And there is not the investment in making robot dishwashers, because we have common dishwashers, that do require manual labour, but they work. A humanoid robot on the other hand, that can put the dishes into the dishwasher, but requires some learning, this might be possible in a few years.
- FeepingCreature 3y ago
  Right. I think the kitchen scenario is more constrained than self-driving (for one, you don't have to continuously keep moving to be safe), and the people who I think are at the forefront of self-driving are also doing robots, and "perform tasks in an unfamiliar kitchen" is a ML classic. My main assumption for "don't injure humans" is that even small animals routinely manage to avoid doing actions that would be potentially harmful, so it doesn't seem to require full general intelligence. And of course, if we crack an AI that can work on AI better than humans can, that solves - or at any rate obviates - all other AI problems by proxy.

A dishwasher isn't autonomous. I'm talking about the second. I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years.

hutzlibu 3y ago

"An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything" " I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years" Very unlikely. I mean you can build something that roughly does that already today, but it will break things and/or it will be so slow it is unusable. Also you have to take savety into account. The robot may not wash the cat or the kid and not accidently break them. But the level of required autonomy for the task requires a machine that can be dangerous. And the recent rise of LLMs really don't help with reliable doing tasks in an unfamiliar environment. Making cars drive save everywhere is an equally hard target and despite all the investment, I don't see us getting there anywhere soon. And there is not the investment in making robot dishwashers, because we have common dishwashers, that do require manual labour, but they work. A humanoid robot on the other hand, that can put the dishes into the dishwasher, but requires some learning, this might be possible in a few years.

FeepingCreature 3y ago
Right. I think the kitchen scenario is more constrained than self-driving (for one, you don't have to continuously keep moving to be safe), and the people who I think are at the forefront of self-driving are also doing robots, and "perform tasks in an unfamiliar kitchen" is a ML classic. My main assumption for "don't injure humans" is that even small animals routinely manage to avoid doing actions that would be potentially harmful, so it doesn't seem to require full general intelligence. And of course, if we crack an AI that can work on AI better than humans can, that solves - or at any rate obviates - all other AI problems by proxy.