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So you mean like something you can wheel in and install or a humanoid style robot you could use in any kitchen? Cause in theory you're just talking about a dish

So you mean like something you can wheel in and install or a humanoid style robot you could use in any kitchen? Cause in theory you're just talking about a dishwasher lol. If you mean a robot that could clean in any kitchen without breaking anything, I'd say at least 20 years. As in you could move it from kitchen to kitchen with no install needs. I suppose another way to look at it is this: how many businesses use robot cleaners to vacuum/mop their floors? Because as far as I can tell that is already solved (basically) but it isn't done because the cost/benefit/efficacy just doesn't add up. What do you think?

js8 3y ago
I can imagine a "box", say 1x1x2 meters, that you get in your home, it will have a plexiglass on it, and inside, it will have several AI-controlled arms, and you will be able to command it to fix anything in that space. Not really sure about cooking, but you could ask for example to fix your trousers, or repair a notebook, or make a fitting for water tap, and so on, and it would autonomously do it (it would ask to order some tools and materials and you would bring them to it). These could also be modular so that they could repair themselves in a limited way. There would also be a larger "boxes" available for fixing larger things. For example, your washing machine broke up, you put it into the "communal" box that is like 6x6 meters, and inside it, it will repair it. Or you could have a communal box that works like a kitchen (but IMHO the biggest problem with AI kitchen is that we cannot easily automate the human taste and smell).
- FeepingCreature 3y ago
  I find bipedal robots more plausible. Our living spaces are configured for humans; ultimately, something that looks like a human will be best suited to navigate them.
- TapWaterBandit 3y ago
  That is a very cool concept I hadn't considered. No idea of feasibility but would love to see it or something similar happen.
- brightlancer 3y ago
  Things are so disposable now that I don't think most households would have a use case for a Repair-Bot; I can see it in offices and factories, OTOH. I think we're pretty far away from a robot that can take an arbitrary problem and fix it accurately. I'll be excited when I can take my car to the mechanic and he's supervising a robot changing my oil.
  - js8 3y ago
    There is no use case for 8-bit home computers or home 3D printers either.
FeepingCreature 3y ago
A dishwasher isn't autonomous. I'm talking about the second. I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years.
- hutzlibu 3y ago
  "An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything" " I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years" Very unlikely. I mean you can build something that roughly does that already today, but it will break things and/or it will be so slow it is unusable. Also you have to take savety into account. The robot may not wash the cat or the kid and not accidently break them. But the level of required autonomy for the task requires a machine that can be dangerous. And the recent rise of LLMs really don't help with reliable doing tasks in an unfamiliar environment. Making cars drive save everywhere is an equally hard target and despite all the investment, I don't see us getting there anywhere soon. And there is not the investment in making robot dishwashers, because we have common dishwashers, that do require manual labour, but they work. A humanoid robot on the other hand, that can put the dishes into the dishwasher, but requires some learning, this might be possible in a few years.
  - FeepingCreature 3y ago
    Right. I think the kitchen scenario is more constrained than self-driving (for one, you don't have to continuously keep moving to be safe), and the people who I think are at the forefront of self-driving are also doing robots, and "perform tasks in an unfamiliar kitchen" is a ML classic. My main assumption for "don't injure humans" is that even small animals routinely manage to avoid doing actions that would be potentially harmful, so it doesn't seem to require full general intelligence. And of course, if we crack an AI that can work on AI better than humans can, that solves - or at any rate obviates - all other AI problems by proxy.
brightlancer 3y ago
> I suppose another way to look at it is this: how many businesses use robot cleaners to vacuum/mop their floors? Because as far as I can tell that is already solved (basically) but it isn't done because the cost/benefit/efficacy just doesn't add up. At least in the US, the parasitic labor unions are explicitly fighting such automation: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/automation-hotel-strike-ai-jobs/579433/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/autom... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/american-workers-jobs-inequality-union-automation_n_5ae043f9e4b061c0bfa32e0c https://www.huffpost.com/entry/american-workers-jobs-inequal... Cleaning robots may not yet be cost-efficient everywhere, but they can't be far off.

js8 3y ago

I can imagine a "box", say 1x1x2 meters, that you get in your home, it will have a plexiglass on it, and inside, it will have several AI-controlled arms, and you will be able to command it to fix anything in that space. Not really sure about cooking, but you could ask for example to fix your trousers, or repair a notebook, or make a fitting for water tap, and so on, and it would autonomously do it (it would ask to order some tools and materials and you would bring them to it). These could also be modular so that they could repair themselves in a limited way. There would also be a larger "boxes" available for fixing larger things. For example, your washing machine broke up, you put it into the "communal" box that is like 6x6 meters, and inside it, it will repair it. Or you could have a communal box that works like a kitchen (but IMHO the biggest problem with AI kitchen is that we cannot easily automate the human taste and smell).

FeepingCreature 3y ago
I find bipedal robots more plausible. Our living spaces are configured for humans; ultimately, something that looks like a human will be best suited to navigate them.
TapWaterBandit 3y ago
That is a very cool concept I hadn't considered. No idea of feasibility but would love to see it or something similar happen.
brightlancer 3y ago
Things are so disposable now that I don't think most households would have a use case for a Repair-Bot; I can see it in offices and factories, OTOH. I think we're pretty far away from a robot that can take an arbitrary problem and fix it accurately. I'll be excited when I can take my car to the mechanic and he's supervising a robot changing my oil.
- js8 3y ago
  There is no use case for 8-bit home computers or home 3D printers either.

FeepingCreature 3y ago

A dishwasher isn't autonomous. I'm talking about the second. I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years.

hutzlibu 3y ago
"An autonomous robot cleaning the dishes on its own in an unfamiliar kitchen without breaking anything" " I think if we don't solve general intelligence first, we should be able to get there in three to four years" Very unlikely. I mean you can build something that roughly does that already today, but it will break things and/or it will be so slow it is unusable. Also you have to take savety into account. The robot may not wash the cat or the kid and not accidently break them. But the level of required autonomy for the task requires a machine that can be dangerous. And the recent rise of LLMs really don't help with reliable doing tasks in an unfamiliar environment. Making cars drive save everywhere is an equally hard target and despite all the investment, I don't see us getting there anywhere soon. And there is not the investment in making robot dishwashers, because we have common dishwashers, that do require manual labour, but they work. A humanoid robot on the other hand, that can put the dishes into the dishwasher, but requires some learning, this might be possible in a few years.
- FeepingCreature 3y ago
  Right. I think the kitchen scenario is more constrained than self-driving (for one, you don't have to continuously keep moving to be safe), and the people who I think are at the forefront of self-driving are also doing robots, and "perform tasks in an unfamiliar kitchen" is a ML classic. My main assumption for "don't injure humans" is that even small animals routinely manage to avoid doing actions that would be potentially harmful, so it doesn't seem to require full general intelligence. And of course, if we crack an AI that can work on AI better than humans can, that solves - or at any rate obviates - all other AI problems by proxy.

brightlancer 3y ago

> I suppose another way to look at it is this: how many businesses use robot cleaners to vacuum/mop their floors? Because as far as I can tell that is already solved (basically) but it isn't done because the cost/benefit/efficacy just doesn't add up. At least in the US, the parasitic labor unions are explicitly fighting such automation: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/automation-hotel-strike-ai-jobs/579433/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2019/01/autom... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/american-workers-jobs-inequality-union-automation_n_5ae043f9e4b061c0bfa32e0c https://www.huffpost.com/entry/american-workers-jobs-inequal... Cleaning robots may not yet be cost-efficient everywhere, but they can't be far off.