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I don't think this is a good analogy. A better analogy is the multiple previous AI hype cycles. They played out similarly. They brought some truly new capabilit

I don't think this is a good analogy. A better analogy is the multiple previous AI hype cycles. They played out similarly. They brought some truly new capabilities that are used in production, just like LLMs will become a widely used tool, but failed to live up to the AGI hype even though everyone was convinced we're just a step away back in the 80s already and in a few years machine will do all our work. The only reason people don't see this is because they weren't around back then. It's not going to be different this time.

famouswaffles 3y ago
>The only reason people don't see this is because they weren't around back then. It's not going to be different this time. There are people who've been around who think it's going to be different this time. Look it's fine if you don't. Maybe you'll be right and they'll be wrong but this "anyone who disagrees is ignorant" rhetoric is uncalled for. You shouldn't need to result to ad hominems.
- kuchenbecker 3y ago
  Agreed, I see this automating 20-30% of my work in the next 10 years. Then, I'll spend that time on the unending pile of work that's not completed. I see a major issue for people entering the industry in a decade because ChatGPT/Copilot I can get 10 mediocre answers and verify them in the time it takes a junior eng to respond to PR comments.
- sanderjd 3y ago
  I tend to agree with the comment you replied to, but I also agree with this. It isn't too be ignored that lots of people see something different this time. But I don't see the same thing as they do...
sanderjd 3y ago
This is what it looks like to me too. Except I do think the tools are significantly more useful than in previous cycles. But I do think the hype cycle model is the right one. And I find it super odd that people keep jumping to the AGI thing. I honestly struggle mightily to see what they're seeing in gpt-4 that makes them feel like we're on the brink of a general intelligence.

famouswaffles 3y ago

>The only reason people don't see this is because they weren't around back then. It's not going to be different this time. There are people who've been around who think it's going to be different this time. Look it's fine if you don't. Maybe you'll be right and they'll be wrong but this "anyone who disagrees is ignorant" rhetoric is uncalled for. You shouldn't need to result to ad hominems.

kuchenbecker 3y ago
Agreed, I see this automating 20-30% of my work in the next 10 years. Then, I'll spend that time on the unending pile of work that's not completed. I see a major issue for people entering the industry in a decade because ChatGPT/Copilot I can get 10 mediocre answers and verify them in the time it takes a junior eng to respond to PR comments.
sanderjd 3y ago
I tend to agree with the comment you replied to, but I also agree with this. It isn't too be ignored that lots of people see something different this time. But I don't see the same thing as they do...

sanderjd 3y ago

This is what it looks like to me too. Except I do think the tools are significantly more useful than in previous cycles. But I do think the hype cycle model is the right one. And I find it super odd that people keep jumping to the AGI thing. I honestly struggle mightily to see what they're seeing in gpt-4 that makes them feel like we're on the brink of a general intelligence.