> Sonders said she sees the U.S. as having experienced “rolling” recessions in different segments – such as housing or manufacturing – as opposed to the entire

> Sonders said she sees the U.S. as having experienced “rolling” recessions in different segments – such as housing or manufacturing – as opposed to the entire economy being swept up in a full-blown downturn. “The recession versus no recession debate” is missing the current nuances of this cycle, in her view. If we reach 2025 and there's no 2000 style recession, this is the most likely cause. The recession is happening industry-by-industry and at different speeds. Some are sharp and fast (commodities), some are slow (commercial real estate), some happened early (tech), some happened late or haven't even happened yet (hospitality). It also makes sense from a first principles standpoint: If everyone saw it coming due to covid, different industries will react differently, but every industry would definitely act. The difference between now vs '08 and 2000 is information availability, both from the obviousness of the catalyzing event and how ubiquitous financial information has become in the past 15 years. Even as recently as 2008 it was considerably harder to find and act on economic data vs today. Most companies of any size can discover and act on economic data based on how they see fit. Given this, it's not shocking that tech acted first given they have immediate pricing effects and have information-driven cultures. Compare that to CRE where contracts span decades, and pricing is opaque by design.