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> All the talk of a recession last year was always just bluster to justify layoffs Or, a signal of the tail end of an undeclared recession. If you compare une

by Izkata 3y ago

> All the talk of a recession last year was always just bluster to justify layoffs Or, a signal of the tail end of an undeclared recession. If you compare unemployment rate to recessions, they usually begin before the unemployment spike. The unemployment spike then usually plateus around the end of the recession.

zerbinxx 3y ago
That’s actually a good point. I think the covid era is unique though because the “labor shortage” still hasn’t been worked through. A lot of people straight up died, retired early, became shutins, etc. and I’m very certain some sectors have not recovered. I think the recent market elation around AI is basically a last ditch hope/pray effort by Wall Street/C suite execs that something will magically show up and fill in the gaps. I see it at work and it’s cringe, they’re extremely reluctant to hire for desperately needed roles and are apparently hoping that AI will somehow show up and fix all of our problems.
- Spooky23 3y ago
  I work in an role that oversees an operations team and a big part of the tech organization. The ops guys lost 45% of headcount to retirement and turnover. Even with significantly increased pay, qualified candidates don’t exist. We’re trying to hire high school grads, community college kids, and separated veterans to pay to train, but any smart candidate is in demand. Automation and AI may reduce labor demand by about 20%, which isn’t enough. We found in the high school recruiting that the state of affairs is so poor that you are basically looking for unicorns who undervalue themselves. The median high school grad in a large urban school is… pretty rough in terms of skills.
  - wildrhythms 3y ago
    I work in $well_known_big_tech and have been denied trying to job switch (about 1 month ago). No interview, they reject my resume. I have over 5 years experience. Just my anecdote.
    - zerbinxx 3y ago
      Yeah that’s my understanding and experience from watching our recruiting process. It all comes from the top level “strategy” sessions where they project a recession but fail to project for any amount of turnover.

by Izkata 3y ago

zerbinxx 3y ago

That’s actually a good point. I think the covid era is unique though because the “labor shortage” still hasn’t been worked through. A lot of people straight up died, retired early, became shutins, etc. and I’m very certain some sectors have not recovered. I think the recent market elation around AI is basically a last ditch hope/pray effort by Wall Street/C suite execs that something will magically show up and fill in the gaps. I see it at work and it’s cringe, they’re extremely reluctant to hire for desperately needed roles and are apparently hoping that AI will somehow show up and fix all of our problems.

Spooky23 3y ago
I work in an role that oversees an operations team and a big part of the tech organization. The ops guys lost 45% of headcount to retirement and turnover. Even with significantly increased pay, qualified candidates don’t exist. We’re trying to hire high school grads, community college kids, and separated veterans to pay to train, but any smart candidate is in demand. Automation and AI may reduce labor demand by about 20%, which isn’t enough. We found in the high school recruiting that the state of affairs is so poor that you are basically looking for unicorns who undervalue themselves. The median high school grad in a large urban school is… pretty rough in terms of skills.
- wildrhythms 3y ago
  I work in $well_known_big_tech and have been denied trying to job switch (about 1 month ago). No interview, they reject my resume. I have over 5 years experience. Just my anecdote.
  - zerbinxx 3y ago
    Yeah that’s my understanding and experience from watching our recruiting process. It all comes from the top level “strategy” sessions where they project a recession but fail to project for any amount of turnover.