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The yield curve inversion has predicted the last 9 out of the 5 recessions. Could it also be that the two-year yield is higher (than the 10-year yield) because
by douglasisshiny 3y ago
The yield curve inversion has predicted the last 9 out of the 5 recessions.
Could it also be that the two-year yield is higher (than the 10-year yield) because people expect the fed to lower the FFR after a couple of years after inflation has reached their target?
- berkle4455 3y ago> The yield curve inversion has predicted the last 9 out of the 5 recessions. This is a weak argument and the evidence does not support it: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
- douglasisshiny 3y agoIts suggesting that a inverted yield curve alone is as good as a coin toss as far as leading indicators go.
- berkle4455 3y agoIt has a 100% success rate based on my observation. And if we're going to disagree on facts, I'm not sure the point in having any sort of further discussion.