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While I welcome optimism, it’s premature to declare strong top line S&P 500 performance as the end of economic uncertainty. Tech is the only sector with signifi

by rocauc 3y ago

While I welcome optimism, it’s premature to declare strong top line S&P 500 performance as the end of economic uncertainty. Tech is the only sector with significant YTD gains: Brent Crude Oil, Regional Banks, Transportation, and Retail are all down YTD. In the S&P 500, the “Magnificent 7” stocks (NVIDIA, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Amazon) are responsible for *85%* of YTD gains. Coatue’s East Meets West macro view from June 30 is the source for the above, and it contains a number of great insights: https://www.coatue.com/blog/company-update/coatues-2023-emw-conference https://www.coatue.com/blog/company-update/coatues-2023-emw-...

whatshisface 3y ago
One of those things is not like the other - crude oil is a commodity, and it going down is a good thing (In addition to the Fed's current policy being "raise interest rates until prices stop rising," high energy prices are VERY bad.) That is not really an objection to your point overall, though.
- rocauc 3y ago
  Good call out. Edit - FWIW, energy sector stocks are also down YTD (certainly correlated with lower prices of an inelastic product). I also realized the linked sourced from Coatue hasn’t been on HN and is a good source for independent discussion like this. Submitted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36565261 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36565261
- alkibiades 3y ago
  it’s usually not a good thing cuz it’s indicative of demand being down which usually means the economy is weak
- everybodyknows 3y ago
  > crude oil is a commodity, and it going down is a good thing Unless you happen to believe that climate change is real, and market-based pressure is useful in its mitigation.
  - Spooky23 3y ago
    Shoveling more money at oil producers is not the answer. At high prices, disastrous products like tar-sand oil becomes viable.
nly 3y ago
Over the long term all historical stock outperformance (over treasury bills) ome from like 4% of stocks, so this is not unusual.

by rocauc 3y ago

whatshisface 3y ago

One of those things is not like the other - crude oil is a commodity, and it going down is a good thing (In addition to the Fed's current policy being "raise interest rates until prices stop rising," high energy prices are VERY bad.) That is not really an objection to your point overall, though.

rocauc 3y ago
Good call out. Edit - FWIW, energy sector stocks are also down YTD (certainly correlated with lower prices of an inelastic product). I also realized the linked sourced from Coatue hasn’t been on HN and is a good source for independent discussion like this. Submitted: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36565261 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36565261
alkibiades 3y ago
it’s usually not a good thing cuz it’s indicative of demand being down which usually means the economy is weak
everybodyknows 3y ago
> crude oil is a commodity, and it going down is a good thing Unless you happen to believe that climate change is real, and market-based pressure is useful in its mitigation.
- Spooky23 3y ago
  Shoveling more money at oil producers is not the answer. At high prices, disastrous products like tar-sand oil becomes viable.

nly 3y ago

Over the long term all historical stock outperformance (over treasury bills) ome from like 4% of stocks, so this is not unusual.