A typical response to this is "I need 20M to make those samples. Gimme." And a response to that is often "Hmm, there's 95% chance this guy is full of shit, but

A typical response to this is "I need 20M to make those samples. Gimme." And a response to that is often "Hmm, there's 95% chance this guy is full of shit, but also a 5% chance it's gonna be big." To investors, it's all about estimating whether the ratio is 95:5 (good enough), or worse.