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Tech's hype artists didn't predict ChatGPT either. Hype artists predict the ambitious futures found in sci-fi novels. They predict things that would be cool if
by civilized 3y ago
Tech's hype artists didn't predict ChatGPT either. Hype artists predict the ambitious futures found in sci-fi novels. They predict things that would be cool if they happened, without any understanding of how they would happen and the strengths and limitations of the methods that might be used. Thus, the futures they predict are not what actually occur.
Only the people actually inventing the future, things like AlphaGo and GPT, have a limited crystal ball into the future. They have some understanding of what their methods can and can't do. And even they succumb to hype when they are more successful than they expected to be.
Tech pundits on LinkedIn and Twitter and HN have rarely if ever gotten anything right about what exactly the future will look like, and I expect that pattern to continue.