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“Nobody was predicting a major European land war.” I don’t think that entirely accurate. Mearshiemer is one prominent example. Nuland being another.
by 2devnull 3y ago
“Nobody was predicting a major European land war.”
I don’t think that entirely accurate. Mearshiemer is one prominent example. Nuland being another.
- 0xDEF 3y agoMearsheimer is a Putin fanboy who expected Russia would win the war in a month.
- ImHereToVote 3y agoWould you want the Russians to go nuclear like Mearsheimer anticipated of them? Perhaps the reason he is wrong is because he doesn't think of them in the best possible light.
- greesil 3y agoTo be fair almost everyone in the west thought the Russians would win in a short amount of time at the beginning of the war.
- hackandthink 3y agoMearsheimer was right predicting the war. Let's hope he is not right again: https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-the-ukraine https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/the-darkness-ahead-where-...
- greesil 3y agoSkimmed it. Yikes. I can't believe in the analytical ability of someone who thinks the invasion happened because of rational Russian security concerns as opposed to the fever dreams of an unhinged kleptocrat.
- hackandthink 3y agoAdam Tooze acknowledges Mearsheimer's analysis. His criticism of Mearsheimer is more subtle. My take is that Mearsheimer triggers cognitive dissonance. https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-95-is-ukraine-the-wests https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-95-is-ukraine-the...
- avgcorrection 3y agoWrong or right: it’s better to try to analyze Russia itself than to speculate about the psychology of one person.
- greesil 3y agoNo in this case it's not, as one person is making the decisions.
- dralley 3y agoMearshiemer was saying one fucking week before the invasion that the US was being hysterical, that there would be no full invasion, that Putin was, quote, "much too smart to do something like that". He has been entirely wrong about Ukraine for years but still people pretend that no, actually he was right for some vague reason that has little basis in reality. And lately he's resorting using "Moon of Alabama" (newspaper run by a religious cult) as if it was a legitimate citation, because his ego won't allow him to back down from his wild statements. Why does anyone take this guy as an authority?
- r721 3y ago>newspaper run by a religious cult I think you confused them with someone else, Moon of Alabama is just an anonymous pro-Russian blogger: >The editor and the person who runs the blog are anonymous, and the about page states that “Bernhard started and still runs the site, and you can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard >In this update, we find that Moon of Alabama has become sympathetic toward Russia and the war in Ukraine, often citing misinformation ... Generally, Moon of Alabama is a pro-Russian conspiracy website. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/moon-of-alabama/ https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/moon-of-alabama/
- dralley 3y agoFair enough. However, I'm not sure that's an improvement.
- 2devnull 3y agoI wasn’t saying he’s smarter than you! I was just saying he’s one example of someone who has been saying for a decade or so that we’re headed for conflict in Eastern Europe. That he overestimated to rationality of world leaders is entirely besides the point. Parent said “nobody” but there have been many somebodies.