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Yeah those numbers clearly are incorrect. It's staggering that they even chose to publish the statistics without drawing the conclusion that their study was fla

Yeah those numbers clearly are incorrect. It's staggering that they even chose to publish the statistics without drawing the conclusion that their study was flawed. Actually, it makes me wonder if they have a dog in the game somehow, would they want to exaggerate the number of swattings that occur?

ClumsyPilot 3y ago
> Yeah those numbers clearly are incorrect. It's staggering that they even chose to publish Sometimes the numbers are staggering because society is deeply in denial. Thays how ot was with sexual abuse of children in churches.
- rosmax_1337 3y ago
  Do you believe the study published by the ADL is a correct representation of reality?
- vel0city 3y ago
  I mean, I don't exactly pretend to believe I see a truly statistically good cross section of US teens but through family connections and friends I probably know a few dozen, and I don't know of a single one who has ever been swatted. I can't even imagine any of their friends would have been swatted, but I can't say I've interviewed them all about it. 1 in 9 is pretty insane, if that's actually reality there's gotta be some extreme compounding factors influencing it.
- spookthesunset 3y ago
  1 in 9 is so absurdly high it calls into question everything about the study. There are about 42 million teenagers in the US right now. 1:9 would be about 4.67 million teens. According to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), SWAT teams in the US were deployed about 45,000 times in 2014. Not all of these would be "SWAT'ing" incidents (a prank call resulting in a SWAT team response), but it gives some context to the scale of SWAT operations. Even if it was 1:10,000 you'd see like 4200 teens swatted. Back of the napkin math would mean roughly 1:10 SWAT calls are pranks. I kinda doubt that too. 1 in 9 lunacy. If 1 in 9 teens got swatted it would be a huge deal. (for a good time let chatgpt + wolfram do all the calculations and start comparing to the 240 million 911 calls made each year... you'd be looking at 1 in 100 911 calls being swat pranks....
- godelski 3y ago
  These types of things can be guesstimated on validity pretty well, using likelihood. Do you know 10 people? 20? Ask how many have been swatted. If the answer is "none", then it decreases the likelihood that the model is accurate. The further off your sampling is from the "reported" rates, the more likely that that model is wrong. The other explanation is that the data is heterogeneous but then that means we have an aggregation error. That also isn't great either, especially since it means the problem is potentially even larger, but only affecting a specific group. Either way, not good.
SapporoChris 3y ago
It's probably just a confusion of terminology. I know I got swatted as a child, my parents were strict disciplinarians. Many of my peers were swatted also.
chwa982 3y ago
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tbrownaw 3y ago
The PDF of their report is linked right before the quote from it. > Over the past year, online hate and harassment rose sharply for adults and teens ages 13-17. > What might be behind these alarming results? Hateful rhetoric from political leaders, celebrities, and other public figures often spurs online hate, just as online hate can often spur offline harm. > The annual online hate and harassment survey of American adults is conducted on behalf of ADL by YouGov, a public opinion and data analytics firm. The survey examines American adults’ experiences with and views of online hate and harassment. A total of 2,139 completed surveys were collected [...]

ClumsyPilot 3y ago

> Yeah those numbers clearly are incorrect. It's staggering that they even chose to publish Sometimes the numbers are staggering because society is deeply in denial. Thays how ot was with sexual abuse of children in churches.

rosmax_1337 3y ago
Do you believe the study published by the ADL is a correct representation of reality?
vel0city 3y ago
I mean, I don't exactly pretend to believe I see a truly statistically good cross section of US teens but through family connections and friends I probably know a few dozen, and I don't know of a single one who has ever been swatted. I can't even imagine any of their friends would have been swatted, but I can't say I've interviewed them all about it. 1 in 9 is pretty insane, if that's actually reality there's gotta be some extreme compounding factors influencing it.
spookthesunset 3y ago
1 in 9 is so absurdly high it calls into question everything about the study. There are about 42 million teenagers in the US right now. 1:9 would be about 4.67 million teens. According to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), SWAT teams in the US were deployed about 45,000 times in 2014. Not all of these would be "SWAT'ing" incidents (a prank call resulting in a SWAT team response), but it gives some context to the scale of SWAT operations. Even if it was 1:10,000 you'd see like 4200 teens swatted. Back of the napkin math would mean roughly 1:10 SWAT calls are pranks. I kinda doubt that too. 1 in 9 lunacy. If 1 in 9 teens got swatted it would be a huge deal. (for a good time let chatgpt + wolfram do all the calculations and start comparing to the 240 million 911 calls made each year... you'd be looking at 1 in 100 911 calls being swat pranks....
godelski 3y ago
These types of things can be guesstimated on validity pretty well, using likelihood. Do you know 10 people? 20? Ask how many have been swatted. If the answer is "none", then it decreases the likelihood that the model is accurate. The further off your sampling is from the "reported" rates, the more likely that that model is wrong. The other explanation is that the data is heterogeneous but then that means we have an aggregation error. That also isn't great either, especially since it means the problem is potentially even larger, but only affecting a specific group. Either way, not good.

SapporoChris 3y ago

It's probably just a confusion of terminology. I know I got swatted as a child, my parents were strict disciplinarians. Many of my peers were swatted also.

chwa982 3y ago

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tbrownaw 3y ago

The PDF of their report is linked right before the quote from it. > Over the past year, online hate and harassment rose sharply for adults and teens ages 13-17. > What might be behind these alarming results? Hateful rhetoric from political leaders, celebrities, and other public figures often spurs online hate, just as online hate can often spur offline harm. > The annual online hate and harassment survey of American adults is conducted on behalf of ADL by YouGov, a public opinion and data analytics firm. The survey examines American adults’ experiences with and views of online hate and harassment. A total of 2,139 completed surveys were collected [...]