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>able to predict both physical systems and human behavior with perfect foresight many steps in advance It's literally impossible. That's a key part of https://
by logicchains 3y ago
>able to predict both physical systems and human behavior with perfect foresight many steps in advance
It's literally impossible. That's a key part of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory ; in formally chaotic systems (of which there are many), the uncertainty in a forecast increases exponentially with elapsed time, which means it's impossible for an AI, no matter how smart, to predict very far ahead. People who believe otherwise are engaging in magical thinking; like "intelligence" is some magical quality that allows one to break the laws of the universe, do the equivalent of sorting a list in O(1) time.
- ethanbond 3y agoYet we have pretty good weather forecasts, pretty good traffic forecasts, pretty good election forecasts, and so on, and they continue to get better with more data and more compute. While it may never be able to “perfectly predict” at Resolution X does not mean it can’t perfectly predict at Resolution <X. We already have good predictions of human behavior at some resolutions.