5 ms·

Exactly. I keep reading articles about how home prices are "falling" or "plummeting". Yeah right. They are more expensive than ever, especially when you factor

Exactly. I keep reading articles about how home prices are "falling" or "plummeting". Yeah right. They are more expensive than ever, especially when you factor in interest rates. Home prices need to collapse in order for the middle class to be able to afford them.

redeux 3y ago
I keep track of my home sale price estimate on Zillow, not because I think it’s wholly accurate but because it gives me an overall idea of how the market is trending. At the beginning of the year my home value dropped significantly, roughly 10-15% in a matter of months. It’s since completely recovered. Of course this is anecdata, but it seems to jive with what I’m seeing in general.
- bushbaba 3y ago
  Similar happened pre 08 housing crash. Give it time.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    Job losses have to come first. 2008 had a far greater proportion of loans given to people with tenuous cash flows. Since then, underwriting was tightened up to stop the strippers taking out 4 mortgages situation, so unless we start seeing large scale layoffs causing people to miss payments and lose their homes, you will not see the defaults that cascade into more defaults and so on.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > Job losses have to come first Not necessarily. New supply can come online. Or people can decide to wait to buy a home. Job losses are required to lower home prices only if supply stays fixed and demand is inelastic, i.e. consumers have a compulsion to buy homes irrespective of price.
      - lotsofpulp 3y ago
        True, but I do not see that as a realistic possibility based on the already tight markets for the type of labor needed to build homes, especially in the locations that people want homes. 2008 had quick price reductions because people had to sell, and sell quickly, sufficiently increasing supply relative to demand.
- eli_gottlieb 3y ago
  I just checked mine and it appears to have gone up by about $30k since I checked on it last year. This doesn't seem like a good thing for most people.
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> keep reading articles about how home prices are "falling" or "plummeting". Yeah right Home prices are heterogenous; they can be stable in one place and falling in another [1]. > are more expensive than ever, especially when you factor in interest rates Home prices can fall while the cost of a home, i.e., mortgage payment for a new-home purchase, rises. The latter is closer to what PCE tracks [2]. [1] https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/home-price-index https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/home-price-index [2] https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/RIPfactsheet.pdf https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/RIPfac...
artemonster 3y ago
yeah but it will never happen again. what happens to all other people that already took 30year loans for their overpriced garbage?
- AnIdiotOnTheNet 3y ago
  They'll be hurt by it, obviously, but I'd rather take that pain now than condemn the future indefinitely. Of course that puts me at odds with what is apparently the vast majority of humanity. Fuck you, got mine and all that.

redeux 3y ago

I keep track of my home sale price estimate on Zillow, not because I think it’s wholly accurate but because it gives me an overall idea of how the market is trending. At the beginning of the year my home value dropped significantly, roughly 10-15% in a matter of months. It’s since completely recovered. Of course this is anecdata, but it seems to jive with what I’m seeing in general.

bushbaba 3y ago
Similar happened pre 08 housing crash. Give it time.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  Job losses have to come first. 2008 had a far greater proportion of loans given to people with tenuous cash flows. Since then, underwriting was tightened up to stop the strippers taking out 4 mortgages situation, so unless we start seeing large scale layoffs causing people to miss payments and lose their homes, you will not see the defaults that cascade into more defaults and so on.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > Job losses have to come first Not necessarily. New supply can come online. Or people can decide to wait to buy a home. Job losses are required to lower home prices only if supply stays fixed and demand is inelastic, i.e. consumers have a compulsion to buy homes irrespective of price.
    - lotsofpulp 3y ago
      True, but I do not see that as a realistic possibility based on the already tight markets for the type of labor needed to build homes, especially in the locations that people want homes. 2008 had quick price reductions because people had to sell, and sell quickly, sufficiently increasing supply relative to demand.
eli_gottlieb 3y ago
I just checked mine and it appears to have gone up by about $30k since I checked on it last year. This doesn't seem like a good thing for most people.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> keep reading articles about how home prices are "falling" or "plummeting". Yeah right Home prices are heterogenous; they can be stable in one place and falling in another [1]. > are more expensive than ever, especially when you factor in interest rates Home prices can fall while the cost of a home, i.e., mortgage payment for a new-home purchase, rises. The latter is closer to what PCE tracks [2]. [1] https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/home-price-index https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/home-price-index [2] https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/RIPfactsheet.pdf https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/methodologies/RIPfac...

artemonster 3y ago

yeah but it will never happen again. what happens to all other people that already took 30year loans for their overpriced garbage?

AnIdiotOnTheNet 3y ago
They'll be hurt by it, obviously, but I'd rather take that pain now than condemn the future indefinitely. Of course that puts me at odds with what is apparently the vast majority of humanity. Fuck you, got mine and all that.